COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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kevin horlocks wand said:
liverpool tier 2 mate .

numbers no worse than Manchester but never fell out with the govt.

only difference.
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Why are you (and others) simply focusing on infection rates to determine Tier levels when it was made clear, five factors are considered?

The five factors include case detection rates in all age groups, case detection rates in the over 60s and the rate at which cases are rising or falling.
The two other measures are the positivity rate – the number of positive cases detected as a percentage of tests taken – and pressure on the NHS, including current and projected occupancy.
 
This should help a bit

The furlough scheme supporting workers temporarily laid off due to the coronavirus crisis will be extended by a month until the end of April.

It will mean the government continues to pay 80% of wages for those workers "giving business and employees across the UK certainty into the new year", the Treasury said
 
In the past week the 40 - 49 age group has had the highest rate of testing positive in England.With 30 - 39 just behind and 20 - 29 in third place.
 
mosssideblue said:
Why are you (and others) simply focusing on infection rates to determine Tier levels when it was made clear, five factors are considered?

The five factors include case detection rates in all age groups, case detection rates in the over 60s and the rate at which cases are rising or falling.
The two other measures are the positivity rate – the number of positive cases detected as a percentage of tests taken – and pressure on the NHS, including current and projected occupancy.
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This, i find the obsession just on cases a bit weird , testing numbers are unreliable and some politically driven massaging

I go on hosp admissions, icu , pressures on the hospitals and deaths , the rest of it is too variable with all the different tests available and in some areas and not others
 
I agree Kaz that all those things matter which is why I track them all in here.

But NW data on hospitals which was - when GM went into tier 3 - the worst in the UK is now behind several other areas. And numbers are falling. As are the numbers on ventilators that when we entered tier 3 were highest in the UK by far in the NW but have fallen so far they are now not far off half those in London. And NW is not even in second place.

The NW only went over the number in hospital in the first wave for a day or so and is way under that number now whereas other areas are close to or above it.

I am happy to be still in tier 3 as I have made clear often in recent days. But it is not easy to justify right now just from the numbers.
 
Healdplace said:
Here are 7 day comparisons from 28 Sep through to mid Dec (last date we have full data) LIverpool v Manchester

See if you can tell whether tier 2 or 3 worked.

LIVERPOOL v MANCHESTER


281 v 599

592 v 502

576 v 403

527 v 576

318 v 493

259 v 520

282 v 375

156 v 280

101 v 184

82 v 155

93 v 172

104 v 176


As you can see they track very similarly up and down from the rise late Sep / early Oct when student numbers spiked both cities. Different measures since but similar tracks down, plateau and then up.

Also bear in mind that Manchester has a higher population than Liverpool so it is expected to have more cases and if 100 happen in Liverpool the Pop Score there rises by more than in Manchester for that reason.

So the gap in numbers is in meaningful terms less than the raw numbers suggest.

Liverpool has lower numbers than Manchester by a small margin but it is not as drastic as inferred nor as obviously impacted in any meaningful way by the mass testing they took on that is used to praise them and suggest it is why they are in tier 2. The jury is out on that one.
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Maybe i’m missing something but looking at that Liverpools numbers dipped sooner (they went in tier 3 earlier) then both continued to track downwards generally with Manchester looking like it’s a week or 2 behind Liverpools drops?

Is that not a clear sign that going in Tier 3 when infections spike then moving to 2 can work?
 
mosssideblue said:
Why are you (and others) simply focusing on infection rates to determine Tier levels when it was made clear, five factors are considered?

The five factors include case detection rates in all age groups, case detection rates in the over 60s and the rate at which cases are rising or falling.
The two other measures are the positivity rate – the number of positive cases detected as a percentage of tests taken – and pressure on the NHS, including current and projected occupancy.
Click to expand...

could have had any test they liked they still would have made greater Manchester tier 3.

where I live in Trafford pop score has been below 100 for many weeks , it’s now 110. Yes there are other tests as well perhaps you could show me this data for Trafford ?

when Hancock announced Bristol coming down to tier 2 today he said it’s because it’s pop score has come down to 145. That’s his words.
where I live we have been below 100 for weeks and yet we have been in lockdown for months.

way below liverpool , way below Bristol which has been moved down.

he may as well have said today

Bristol doing well , 145you in the south tier 2

trafford in the north , 110 fuck off.

have a look at heald place data about other factors like hospitals it’s a joke.
 
Ric said:
Yes, seems a bit of an unrealistic/unfair request if they haven't been given any prior warning. Fairly sure neither of my children's schools are prepared for this.
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Seems the school didn’t know.
L just had a message that year 11 are back in January and Y7 to Y10 are online learning only.

Just had to pour her another glass of wine!
Her mate, who does the IT, has just lost his Christmas as he’ll have to set it all up again.
 
I'm fully aware of the injustice of individual boroughs in GM feeling aggreived but the government's get out is having GM as a whole. The GM as a whole has over 2 million people living in it whereas just Bristol alone has less than half a million with the surrounding area probably not amounting to a whole lot more. There will be area's of Bristol that are maybe higher in the more deprived bits but as a whole they've come down. No consolation to Trafford Stockport etc
 
How are folk catching the virus at this accelerating rate following six long weeks of lock-down?
Is it from the high street, because it's certainly not our hospitality sectors that have been effectively nullified.
 
kevin horlocks wand said:
could have had any test they liked they still would have made greater Manchester tier 3.

where I live in Trafford pop score has been below 100 for many weeks , it’s now 110. Yes there are other tests as well perhaps you could show me this data for Trafford ?

when Hancock announced Bristol coming down to tier 2 today he said it’s because it’s pop score has come down to 145. That’s his words.
where I live we have been below 100 for weeks and yet we have been in lockdown for months.

way below liverpool , way below Bristol which has been moved down.

he may as well have said today

Bristol doing well , 145you in the south tier 2

trafford in the north , 110 fuck off.

have a look at heald place data about other factors like hospitals it’s a joke.
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Simply saying people have been tending just to look at the infection rate and drawn their own conclusion to its fairness or not where as promulgated, there are other considerations.

Your guess is as good as mine as to the availability of the other 4 factors
 
mosssideblue said:
Simply saying people have been tending just to look at the infection rate and drawn their own conclusion to its fairness or not where as promulgated, there are other considerations.

Your guess is as good as mine as to the availability of the other 4 factors
Click to expand...

they said they will publish the data to justify the decisions but I strongly suspect we will get GM data rather than each individual borough.
 
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