COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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The dates for the England hospital deaths also verify it looks like we are heading into a third wave.

I have stopped posting the da8ily data here and the add ons to each day as I doubt anybody was reading it. And they are very morbid and hard to distance myself from when compiling.

But there are very clear signs now of regular increases to the England numbers. Almost every date from which todays deaths were added to were significantly up on the same date last week.

15 December also became the first since 18 November to top 300 deaths on the fifth day after that date.

18 November - what we had hoped was the peak of wave 2 as deaths started to fall after it - is currently the highest point on a single day in England hospitals since the first wave in April when they reached over 800.

This Wave 2 peak currently has 323 deaths allocated to it but has not had any additions for a while now.

So that we have a date only 5 days old that is already closing in on that is not a good sign, especially as the total deaths at 5 days over the past week has risen this week compared with last after it has fallen for the previous couple of weeks.

There are also another four dates since 18 November that are well over 300 already so it looks almost certain we are going to be hitting a new peak shortly.

We desperately need that Oxford vaccine to come on stream asap as without it the next three months are going to be very grim with the usual seasonal pressures on top for the NHS unlike in April.
 
I am more convinced than ever we now need a national lockdown at least for January and it is not a clever idea to let it formulate piece by piece over coming days and weeks as we seem wont to do. Decisive and swift are the only things that work. Dithering only makes things worse and extends the length you need to retain the very oppressive measures. And kills the economy even more.

I fear we might have been distracted a bit much by Brexit over the past week or two and that has delayed taking the action we have for long enough it may already be unstoppable.

Containing this new variant from reaching all parts of England - indeed much of the UK - is likely a boat that has already sailed. But giving it more days and weeks to get on with it is about the most dangerous strategy you could choose.
 
urban genie said:
That is what I was linked to whe I enquired and here were my results


‍♂️‍♀️‍♂️‍♂️‍♀️‍♂️
Based on your profile, there are between 12,305,865 and 18,074,125 people in front of you in the queue for a COVID vaccine across the UK.
Given a vaccination rate of 1,000,000 a week and an uptake of 70.6%, you should expect to receive your vaccine between 16/03/2021 and 26/04/2021
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End of jan to end of feb for me , six million ahead of me
 
Welsh health minister just confirmed the big rise in cases in Wales has been partly due to the new strain now being - as he put it - 'effectively seeded across the country (and)....undoubtedly a factor.'
 
The way Europe and the rest of the world seem to be reacting towards us, this new strain seem's to be more serious than first i first though. of course they think its got the same mortality rates, although i find it hard to accept they have any worthwhile data just yet. The worrying part is how much more infectious it is, that will undoubtedly push the death toll up due to more infection's. Seem's like a pretty scary point in time right now.
 
sniff said:
The way Europe and the rest of the world seem to be reacting towards us, this new strain seem's to be more serious than first i first though. of course they think its got the same mortality rates, although i find it hard to accept they have any worthwhile data just yet. The worrying part is how much more infectious it is, that will undoubtedly push the death toll up due to more infection's. Seem's like a pretty scary point in time right now.
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This is probably the most crucial moment since march , at least the decision for tier four was taken rapidly
 
Healdplace said:
I am more convinced than ever we now need a national lockdown at least for January and it is not a clever idea to let it formulate piece by piece over coming days and weeks as we seem wont to do. Decisive and swift are the only things that work. Dithering only makes things worse and extends the length you need to retain the very oppressive measures. And kills the economy even more.

I fear we might have been distracted a bit much by Brexit over the past week or two and that has delayed taking the action we have for long enough it may already be unstoppable.

Containing this new variant from reaching all parts of England - indeed much of the UK - is likely a boat that has already sailed. But giving it more days and weeks to get on with it is about the most dangerous strategy you could choose.
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bound to be announced in the gap between xmas and new year. I imagine to take place immediately to hit any new year Celebrations .

January is shite anyway and as tier 3 now makes fuck all difference.

however if they do it there should be a mass vaccination plan getting through it 7 days a week and if possible 24 hours a day.

at the moment we have gp surgeries doing it What between 10 and 3 5 days a week ?

it needs a massive ramp up , we are supposed to be in a deadly pandemic!
 
Reading news outlets, it seems to indicate that people who get ill with this new strain produce a higher viral load than other strains - hence the rise in infection rates.
 
Scottish data not looking good either.

Deaths 3 (up from 2 last Sunday). Always low due to registration limits at weekend.

Cases 934 - up on last week and yesterday - but there were yet more testing problems apparently and some of todays cases may actually be delayed from yesterday.

There was 5.1% positivity. It was 5.2% last week.

The hospital data though is starting to go the wrong way just as it is in England.

Patients up to 1061 from 1032 and icu ventilator from 50 to 58.
 
Northern Ireland is much the same unfortunately.

13 deaths - up from 4 last week. 505 cases - now regularly in the 500/600 region when it was 200/300 or so a couple of weeks back.
 
kevin horlocks wand said:
bound to be announced in the gap between xmas and new year. I imagine to take place immediately to hit any new year Celebrations .

January is shite anyway and as tier 3 now makes fuck all difference.

however if they do it there should be a mass vaccination plan getting through it 7 days a week and if possible 24 hours a day.

at the moment we have gp surgeries doing it What between 10 and 3 5 days a week ?

it needs a massive ramp up , we are supposed to be in a deadly pandemic!
Click to expand...
I know we will ramp up, but how do you propose to get the most vulnerable to a vaccination station in the middle of the night?
 
BlueAnorak said:
Reading news outlets, it seems to indicate that people who get ill with this new strain produce a higher viral load than other strains - hence the rise in infection rates.
Click to expand...

I was reading it spreads more easily between children

which would explain why it was still ramping up during the last national lockdown, Schools were still open
 
I suppose the fear with us being drip fed us good news about tomorrow, is that people never reach the stage where they just say, 'No, you need to do something now - get your arses in gear with everything else and stop dropping people in it'. We really have to be careful, if they get lazy with vaccine distribution and other measures, we will be locked into this constant cycle of 'increasing anxiety and despair then relief at good news coming / a brief respite in the outbreak and restrictions - then back to the anxiety and despair at the realisation things are out of control'.

Personally, I think that's what we were given brains for - to realise when we're repeating the same unacceptable cycle over and over, to step in, take control and lay out realistic expectations and a plan we can all cope with and know will be in place for the forseeable. Constant change and an uncertain future are a bit of a disaster for morale, adherance to what we need to do, and mental health.
 
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