COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[kaz7]

Sky News said it though, we all know that’s the only place Karen gets her news.

Actually there was a whole discussion between scientists at an emergency meeting broadcast live and in full this morning not that you bother with facts and all

 

[kaz7]

Watch or read some news ffs.

‘The figure mentioned by Prime Minister Boris Johnson was that the variant may be up to 70% more transmissible. He said this may be increasing the R number - which indicates if an epidemic is growing or shrinking - by 0.4.

That 70% number appeared in a presentation by Dr Erik Volz, from Imperial College London , on Friday.

During the talk he said: "It is really too early to tell… but from what we see so far it is growing very quickly, it is growing faster than [a previous variant] ever grew, but it is important to keep an eye on this."

There is no "nailed on" figure for how much more infectious the variant may be. Scientists, whose work is not yet public, have told me figures both much higher and much lower than 70%.

But there remain questions about whether it is any more infectious at all.

"The amount of evidence in the public domain is woefully inadequate to draw strong or firm opinions on whether the virus has truly increased transmission," said Prof Jonathan Ball, a virologist at the University of Nottingham.’

They know nothing concrete yet.

That was friday

 

[shemnel]

He said not more contageous and it is , read better

He said the virus, and you correctly pointed out the mutation of. I merely countered that they are still looking for concrete proof that it is more contagious/transmissible

The body of evidence grows and it's likely it will be proved, but they bounced in quite quickly with the claims.

On 22 Dec, nervtag et al moved their confidence up to high (over 75%) and then steely to 'nearly certain' that the mutation is more transmissible. As professors Barclay, Horby and Ferguson said today at the select committee, the evidence is still mostly associative, but good. All I am claiming is that hard evidence is lacking. It's a bit of a fine point, and not greatly useful when acting in the now.

I think I can read but you have me checking

 

[True_Blue69]

Actually there was a whole discussion between scientists at an emergency meeting broadcast live and in full this morning not that you bother with facts and all

Post the concrete evidence then please as I’ve not seen it.

 

[kaz7]

Post the concrete evidence then please as I’ve not seen it.

I cant post a discussion , we know it is more contageous , they know that from testing , it doesnt seem to give you more severe disease but more people will get it and spread it

They dont need to scare us and wouldnt make baseless claims, the worlds scientists would have to be on the con

 

[Gaylord du Bois]

Actually there was a whole discussion between scientists at an emergency meeting broadcast live and in full this morning not that you bother with facts and all

I watched that. Very interesting with a lot of explanatory detail. Politically neutral too, in most part.

 

[kaz7]

I watched that. Very interesting with a lot of explanatory detail. Politically neutral too, in most part.

Yes it was good , i have watched the select commitee sessions on and off all year, they are much more candid than they are when they have a politican beside them

 

[ctwrd]

Very surprised at the announcement today. Expected more than just those areas that have moved to tier 4 to be moved to tier 4.

now expect a further announcement between Christmas and new year, say 28th December.

unless there is a decrease in spread with lots not working and schools off (plus the phasing back of schools in January)

 

[oman0115]

I just wished they revealed the extra value mutant strain meal when they knew about it, it is bloody impossible to pay for a pcr test to leave England now. Got no choice but to go for an NHS one. Staggering how much private companies are making out of all this, 250 for a 15 minute swab and you can't buy one till Jan 3rd!!!

 

[cleavers]

I was talking only about the new variants that seem to be suddenly happening that are miles more contagious based on nothing more than a hunch. It may well prove to be the case but until then they shouldn’t be talking as if it’s fact.

It is "fact" you head in the sand fool.

Did you see the charts for London and the Southeast/East (and they were 6 day old data), it's been growing exponentially since the start of December, doubling every few days, with most of the cases now the new variant not the old one, which is dying out there. Elsewhere the old one is flat or even declining (see same charts), but the new variant is spreading (or has already spread due to idiots fleeing the southeast on Saturday) to a town near you.

 

[Marvin]

They went into lockdown about the same time we did in November, and have pretty much been in it ever since, so what's happening there is a worry, and makes you wonder if they also have our (or another) more virulent strain, but haven't said so.

Virulence refers to the severity of illness.

 

[cleavers]

What proof do they have?

Science, testing that they have shown, maybe you should watch more, and take some of it in ?

 

[cleavers]

Virulence refers to the severity of illness.

Apologies for use of wrong word, but you know what I meant.

 

[cleavers]

That was friday

And on 6 day old data most likely.

 

[oman0115]

Science, testing that they have shown, maybe you should watch more, and take some of it in ?

Got any links? Whenever I hear anyone in Gov or on MSM they just say 'science' or ''following the'' aforementioned

Not arguing against you but would love to have some additional information.

 

[cleavers]

Got any links? Whenever I hear anyone in Gov or on MSM they just say 'science' or ''following the'' aforementioned

Not arguing against you but would love to have some additional information.

Search for the charts shown today, I'm not doing it for you, there were various charts showing the amount of each variant, the old one in the southeast is rapidly declining, the new one rapidly rising (6 day old data), they even showed a chart from when the new variant overtook the old one in testing, it coincided with the rapid increase in infections, was about the 10th Dec.

 

[Marvin]

Search for the charts shown today, I'm not doing it for you, there were various charts showing the amount of each variant, the old one in the southeast is rapidly declining, the new one rapidly rising (6 day old data), they even showed a chart from when the new variant overtook the old one in testing, it coincided with the rapid increase in infections, was about the 10th Dec.

That's wrong as well.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

I think this is positive. I might end the night here before I come back on in 5 minutes to read something else has gone to shit.

 

[Healdplace]

GM scoreboard today:

Cases 997 - up from 793. 36% of NW total of 2797.

Manchester 236 - Up from 158. Total cases 34, 412. Weekly 1133. Pop Score up 42 to 6224. Weekly Pop up 14 to 205. Highest Manchester has been in nearly a month and first time over 200 in same period. UP 42 in 3 days.

Stockport 124 - Up from 88. Total cases 11, 772. Weekly 494. Pop score up 42 to 4012. Stockport is the last GM borough to enter the 4000 club. Weekly Pop up 16 to 168. UP 60 in 3 days.

Salford 95 - up from 94. Total cases 14, 728, Weekly 501. Pop score up 37 to 5690. Weekly Pop up 9 to 193. Up 41 in 3 days.

Rochdale 92 - up from 72. Total cases 14, 166. Weekly 460. Pop score up 41 to 6369. Weekly Pop up 10 to 207. Up 21 in 3 days.

Trafford 84 - up from 63. Highest here in weeks too. Total cases 9712. Weekly 451. Pop score up 36 to 4092. Cuts gap to Stockport for best Pop by 6 to 80. Weekly Pop up 11 to 190. Up 57 in 3 days.

Oldham 78 - up from 72. Total cases 16, 179. Weekly 451. Pop score up 32 to 6823. Weekly Pop DOWN 1 to 190. Up 4 in 3 days.

Bury 77 - up from 58. Total cases 11, 067. Weekly 397. Pop score up 41 to 5795. Weekly Pop up 4 to 207. UP 32 in 3 days

Tameside 77 - up from 49. Total cases 11, 298. Weekly 329. Still top weekly numbers but numbers rising like all of GM. Pop score up 34 to 4988. Weekly Pop up 19 to 149. UP 43 in 3 days.

Bolton 67 - up from 62. Total cases 16, 547. Weekly 421. Pop score up 24 to 5755. Weekly Pop DOWN 4 to 147. DOWN 6 in 3 days.

Wigan 67 - down from 77. Total cases 18, 355. Weekly 473. Pop score up 21 to 5585. Lowest of the day in GM. Weekly Pop DOWN 8 to 141. DOWN 8 in 3 days\

Utterly amazing shift in the Pop Scores and from 10 days ago Trafford and Tameside sub 100 both have risen by miles as have previous good boroughs Stockport and Salford pushing then to go sub 100.

Now all these are heading for 200 and up again and GM has two boroughs already back up there.

Yet the BEST two in the county with Pops of 141 and 149 are now Bolton and Wigan. The two boroughs that in July were between them the main reason GM went hyper and has been in lockdown of one sort or another for 5 months.

HOW HAVE THEY BECOME THE BEST JUST LIKE THIS???

If we can figure that out we might get somewhere.

 

[cleavers]

That's wrong as well.

What is ?