Coronavirus (2021) thread

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The problem with shutting the schools is that a lot of working parents then can't get childcare and drop off the kids at Grandparents, the very people we're supposed to be protecting.
During the first lockdown employers on the whole were helpful, a lot of them aren't this time going by stories i've heard from friends etc
No idea what the answer is
 
Ric said:
It's pretty irresponsible for journalists like Newton-Dunn to post sensationalist stuff like that when there is no real evidence to back it up yet.
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A journalist being irresponsible? Perish the thought.
 
wolfie1988 said:
These SAGE scientists should not be allowed to speak to the press. They are causing heartache and hurt by doing it with such regularity
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Quite the opposite.

Far to much time is given to the tiny group of fringe scientists whose contrarian views are used by "libertarian" politicians and journalists to advocate avoiding action.

If scientific views were given more airtime and libertarian fools less we would not have so many dead and would have a clear route out.
 
Ric said:
It's pretty irresponsible for journalists like Newton-Dunn to post sensationalist stuff like that when there is no real evidence to back it up yet.
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Like anything in the media these days, they seem to have total disregard for reputation and reporting facts. Whether it’s reporting on football and city, or in this case a new variant of the virus. No doubt it will generate lots of interest and clicks, but the fact there is no evidence to support it seems not to matter.
 
On the question of age of those catching it, The heat maps on the Gov UK site daily show for every area the numbers per 100K testing positive every day.

You CAN see from those that more young people (but not under 10s - teens and 20s and 30s - are driving these rises in cases. And that the over 60s are at lower levels than they were in the Spring.

But that does not in itself translate into hospital admissions but the sheer volume of younger people testing - even if there is no increase in potency in the young - will create a visual impression of that by weight of numbers.

Fewer older ones are likely to be catching it now for obvious reasons. Care homes are better guarded and patients less often hospitalised just for testing positive. Many of the really frail due to age and other conditions will have succumbed in the first wave before we knew what we were doing and the rules of this virus. And those who did not are most likely to still obey the rules as they will often have friends their age who caught it and/or sadly died so they do not need telling how serious it is.

Perception of a truth can be a true perception without it necessarily being an absolute truth.
 
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abu13 said:
On a side note, My wife belives rightly or wrongly that if the kids are to be tested in schools she will be expected to be part of the team to do this. Now given that 2 months ago we both went to a testing centre where testing kits we being passed through a small gap through a window at the end of handling tongs and whiteboard instructions rather than talking. i am keen to know what protective measures will be put in place to ensure her safety.
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This is my biggest concern over schools being open. It contradicts government advice.

Secondary school age children cannot go into a shop without a mask but do not have to wear one in school.

You must keep a 1+ meter distance at all times but students can share a desk and sit 30cm apart.

No household mixing in tier 4 but year groups with cohorts of 300 students are all allowed to freely mix at break and lunchtimes. With no social distancing.

I personally think that, after a short 3 week lockdown, schools can and should reopen. But on the premise that schools must follow the same guidelines as wider society as much as possible. That would mean making drastic changes from the current provision.
 
wolfie1988 said:
These SAGE scientists should not be allowed to speak to the press. They are causing heartache and hurt by doing it with such regularity.

The constant negativity is counterproductive to what we need to achieve to end this pandemic or at least get some form of control back.

There should also be a control on non factual reporting of something like this. This isn't something for rumours. People genuinely can't see a way out of this because there is constant negativity and stories based on outlandish predictions and not fact.
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Maybe there isn't 'a clear way out of it'. The situation is changable.

That, IMO, is what people need to try to accept. It will be alright. Almost certainly. We're just not quite in a position to genuinely reassure people that we know how we're getting to that point.

I don't know what the problem is. Life was never guaranteed to be smooth sailing. Anxiety and uncertainty is realistic and ought to be healthy.

The problem seems to come when people say they are dealing with it but really they've accepted the word of someone who doesn't want them to worry. The short term relief wears off, and they haven't dealt with it.

You can't always rely on someone who puts a cure in front of you and tells you that's it sorted. That, is life. The truth is in some cases you can't truly rely on the best effort of your favourite and most qualified doctor being enough. That is the riddle and reality of health and mortality.

Please, don't get complacent. Look after yourselves and each other. We will get through this. There will be ups and downs. The scientists and doctors do the best they can. There are many many stories. You won't find many definitive answers in following them. You need to wait for the advice, their best effort in communicating what's important to you. And have in the back of your mind, that it's likely to change. Because they are testing reality and analysing and thinking on an ongoing basis.

Manage your own expectations and worries and not that of other people.

How can the rules of an open and free society, and a scientific process that relies upon open communication, be changed to meet your need that other people don't worry?

Because people are anxious? Good! There's a balance between the anxious and the confident. It's never perfect, it rarely settles, and that's all par for the course.

What I gather is that some people are uncomfortable that others are increasingly anxious. That drives their anxiety. But that's the job of each of the two parties on their own. Your anxiety is yours.

I'll reiterate, why is their expression of doubt and anxiety unacceptable? It isn't! Why is one scientific voice acceptable but another isn't? Because you're uneasy with the picture not being as rosy as you would like? Because you fear anxious people? Give over!

I couldn't cope without the optimists. And I hope optimists know I would never try to sell them a doubt unfairly.

It takes all sorts. It really does. Get on with it! Stop interfering with the next guy's right to be themselves. It has to be that way.
 
wolfie1988 said:
But these facts are lost in a cesspit of absolute bullshit and sensationalised headlines. The press regulator needs to start doing their job.
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I can’t imagine the toothless press regulator will do much mate but it might be worth contacting them.
 
Ric said:
It's pretty irresponsible for journalists like Newton-Dunn to post sensationalist stuff like that when there is no real evidence to back it up yet.
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Yep. Especially as each vaccine targets multiple areas of the spike proteins. Each vaccine targets different areas too. As such it would take mutations of mega proportions to stop ALL the vaccines from working.
Now virus selection pressures will start to work against vaccines once they start to be deployed but it will take a long time (years) for that to happen.
The real worry is if a cell gets infected with SARS2 and say a cold virus at the same time and you get SARS2 with a totally different Spike protein but the chances of that are pretty remote.
Even then we could modify these vaccines in a couple of months to counter the threat rather than the 10 months it took.
 
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I don't see what boris is getting at with saying we should expect more severe restrictions soon. Then on the other hand he says send the kids back from tomorrow. Fortunately our primary school doesn't restart until the 11th, but what else is left now, apart from full lockdown again?

For months the only trips my family have made are to school, the shops for food and essentials, and checking on elderly family members and neighbours from the end of their driveway, and the occasional walk in local woodlands plus one trip to pick up a takeaway. Maybe were not the target of fresh restrictions, but the lack of clarity and this game of hints and tips is just bloody frustrating and created confusion and stress even if we are not sure it affected. Oh, for some clarity from our leaders.

Are there any places still open which are not essential now in tier 4? I just don't get it, and by coming out with such sound bytes the buffon just fuels fear. Say what the problem is, say who is the problem, and then restrict it as much as possible, and enforce it. Don't have the whole bloody nation guessing if they have to iron school uniforms, buy in food for school lunches, start rearranging work plans and meetings or not. I'm preparing for some surgery this week which will knock me sideways for a while, will it go ahead? Who knows, they certainly won't be telling us until five seconds before I'd bet.

Although in an odd way this could work out interestingly for us. The grandparents have been isolating for weeks prior to Christmas to ensure we could have that one day, so have the kids since school. If they do delay schools again we could conceivably have had over two weeks of isolation which would enable the grandparents to have the kids again if there is no school, except the no mixing rule of course.

Right now we have no choice but to get behind the initiatives and hope the collective actions of those following rules outweighs the actions of those who are not, but once the dust settles and we can see the damage of some of this dithering and lack of clarity, I'd say the results and impact will be near criminal.
 
Nothing Hancock didn't say 2 weeks ago pretty much, just the media stirring a particular headline out that panics people who didn't pick up on it first time around.
 
Wales data first up.

This has a lot of New Year catch up so in effect not as bad as it looks. Though it IS bad.

4011 cases (last Sunday it was 4142 with Christmas catch up added)

For context the two Sundays pre Christmas it was about half this on both occasions. 2334 and 2262.

And 56 deaths (last Sunday it was 70). Deaths the Sunday before Christmas were 69.

The 4011 cases come from 35.7 K tests. At 11.2% positive.
 
6 year olds school just emailed to say they will be closed until at least Wednesday.

Will spend my Sunday afternoon cancelling on my customers for this week.
 
daztrueblue91 said:
This is my biggest concern over schools being open. It contradicts government advice.

Secondary school age children cannot go into a shop without a mask but do not have to wear one in school.

You must keep a 1+ meter distance at all times but students can share a desk and sit 30cm apart.

No household mixing in tier 4 but year groups with cohorts of 300 students are all allowed to freely mix at break and lunchtimes. With no social distancing.

I personally think that, after a short 3 week lockdown, schools can and should reopen. But on the premise that schools must follow the same guidelines as wider society as much as possible. That would mean making drastic changes from the current provision.
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I’ve been saying this since September about schools, household mixing and masks.

Students are sitting in rooms with 30 other kids from 30 other households (who may have siblings in other year groups or other schools, doing the same with another 30 different kids from another 30 households each) for 25 hours a week with no masks on.

And teachers are expected to stand in rooms with around 150 different pupils over a week (say a teacher teaches five groups of 30 on their timetables) multipke times a week in a room with none of them wearing masks.

It’s fucking mental behaviour! They should be wearing masks in classrooms not just on corridors. Not wearing masks increases the chances of spreading it, and it’s happening in every single school in the country.
 


For anyone interested, this guy may be worth a follow on twitter. He's reporting the data from Israel with modelling predictions, based on their vaccine roll out being the highest per capita in the world.

In many ways Israel will be a benchmark and I suspect a lot of the world is watching what happens there with a close eye. He expects their peak to be over the next couple of weeks then (hopefully) the vaccination programme will start to bear fruit, but carefully states there are a lot of unknowns especially with the new variant.
 
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