Coronavirus (2021) thread

[johnnytapia]

I'm in exactly the same boat.

I hope you’re 2 metres apart

 

[Healdplace]

GREATER MANCHESTER SUMMARY

1742 cases - up from 1665. 27.4% of NW total of 6337. Slightly up from 26.9% yesterday Which was lowest ever.

Every single GM borough in 3 figures.

Manchester up to its highest number in two months.

Salford also well up to its highest number in weeks.

Most others up or down a bit.

 

[03 March 2002]

Think it depends what you mean by eliminate. The only disease we appear to have entirely eliminated by vaccination is Smallpox.
Be surprised if we eliminate this though we may well suppress it very successfully, but with it's apparent spread world wide plus the probability that animals may act as a reservoir means elimination is unlikely.

Yes, I was of course pointing to a favourable position. Likelihood/good case is suppression.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

im all for one last lockdown. But i fall into the category of 3 million who dont receive a penny in assistance if im stopped working (in peoples houses) . Im sat here torn between knowing its needed and worrying sick about how im going to put food on the table. Its a horrible.

Must be unbelievably stressful. I hope it works out for you somehow, and I hope the govt just throws cash at this for 3 months, and some of it reaches you.

Borrowing rates are incredibly low, and there is a clear endpoint with the vaccine.

 

[Blue Llama]

I hope you’re 2 metres apart

A

I hope you’re 2 metres apart

Are nautical metres the same as normal metres?

 

[Healdplace]

Birmingham had a record 1593 cases on its own today.

It is by far the largest borough. But that is a huge total.

 

[Deleted member 77198]

Are nautical metres the same as normal metres?

I’m staying a country mile away from everyone

 

[bobbyowenquiff]

Yeah, reduced by maybe 0.1 for every vaccination of the highly vulnerable (mortality is as high as 10% for over 80s).

And that was unmitigated (no restrictions) (slower transmission results in less overall deaths), I think the mitigated scenario was 250,000?

But of course if hospitals are truly overwhelmed that could be worse.

Incidentally it's the IFR ( infection fatality ratio) estimated at 1%. That's deaths per actual infection.

The case fatality rate, CFR, is deaths per positive test. The CFR will be higher than the IFR because we don't find all infections. So far, the CFR is roughly 0.3% (2.7 million positives, 75000 deaths).

But into 6 figures more dead by end March without action, almost certainly.

[Edit - as pointed out below should read CFR 3%, not 0.3%]

Thanks. Those figures are chilling. Even with a full lockdown it must be touch and go whether or not the vaccines can outrun the pace of this new variant. When you think of the long-term health impact of lockdowns themselves that would be the worst possible outcome. The sacrifices made by so many would have been in vain. The way this has been managed has really been a national scandal.

 

[abu13]

I agree with a March style lockdown, but I guess as a we will still be going into work as normal. I have just gone 10 days where I have had daily contact with maybe 5 people but today have had contact with maybe 60 people.
I know they want to keep the economy going but if they continue with Construction and Manufacturing I fail to see how the numbers will come down in the numbers required.

 

[Ban-jani]

I've not seen her crowing about how much better Scotland is re Covid, she seems just to have got on with it.

Don’t want to carry on politicising the non political Covid thread mate but her response the other week to criticism levelled at Scotland was to claim the rest of the UK was doing worse in terms of numbers.

Struck me as a petulant response.

 

[bluetonium]

Will be eagerly watching tonight. Aside from the impact on us and our kids for primary school, could also affect my planned surgery later this week depending on when lockdown starts and what it covers. Can't say I disagree with a lockdown but also it will be crushing to have to postpone again after building myself up for it.

 

[Ban-jani]

He’s going to inform people to adhere to the lockdown from midnight tonight, same nationwide measures as March, it seems, with it being ratified Weds officially in parliament.

Nearly all pupils sent home from school.

From the BBC news.

Better late than never ffs

 

[cleavers]

Don’t want to carry on politicising the non political Covid thread

Good.

 

[cleavers]

Will be eagerly watching tonight. Aside from the impact on us and our kids for primary school, could also affect my planned surgery later this week depending on when lockdown starts and what it covers. Can't say I disagree with a lockdown but also it will be crushing to have to postpone again after building myself up for it.

Fingers crossed for you there, it's bad enough to be facing surgery, without all this upheaval.

 

[Ban-jani]

Good.

It is inevitable as conversation follows breaking news being released by politicians

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Even with a full lockdown it must be touch and go whether or not the vaccines can outrun the pace of this new variant.

Yes, that's the worst case scenario, and nobody yet knows if it will pan out - data suggests it could be touch and go.

But if it does pan out, it's even more important to lock down as hard as possible, because we may be able to restrict growth enough not to overwhelm hospitals, and of course, the more we flatten the curve, the more people will be vaccinated and protected.

My own guess is that if we can communicate the real seriousness of the situation, the public will respond and we can in reality drive down well below that worst case. But the aura of Johnson yet again being forced into this unwillingly rather leading is really unhelpful in getting that sense of common purpose we need.

 

[inchy14]

due process followed. Agreed with Cabinet and then announced to parliament with follow up q and a. Review points established. You appear to be a lone voice on this.

No he’s not actually, quite a few of us would prefer these decisions to be voted in properly instead of them just making decisions off the cuff, and let’s be honest they’ve made enough wrong ones to be fair!!

 

[Nellies left peg]

He’s going to inform people to adhere to the lockdown from midnight tonight, same nationwide measures as March, it seems, with it being ratified Weds officially in parliament.

Nearly all pupils sent home from school.

From the BBC news.

Better late than never ffs

Same measures that loads of cunts ignored in March. It's time measures were instigated and people were forced to adhere to otherwise penalised heavily

 

[Bluesince1979]

Must be unbelievably stressful. I hope it works out for you somehow, and I hope the govt just throws cash at this for 3 months, and some of it reaches you.

Borrowing rates are incredibly low, and there is a clear endpoint with the vaccine.

3 months would be a total disaster. For me. 3 million of us in the same boat! 3 MILLION!! 5% of the population isnt it?

 

[Saddleworth2]

No he’s not actually, quite a few of us would prefer these decisions to be voted in properly instead of them just making decisions off the cuff, and let’s be honest they’ve made enough wrong ones to be fair!!

Whatever mate. Even a couple of days makes a difference with this virus.