Coronavirus (2021) thread

[shemnel]

Yes, that is true Kaz. I looked at the data myself. I think partly as men are more likely to be smokers and that is a huge risk. And that women live longer on average and so the proportion of women over 80 is much higher and higher than it was pre the cull of the men in the first wave.

numbers wise, more men die per week than women, every week bar a couple in the summer.

 

[paulchapo]

I dare say the media will just report cases went UP today. As they did. But miss the importance of the extra tests and how the positivity numbers are going down. By far the most important numbers right now.

As noted before if you get to a positivity of 5% the WHO reckon you have a pandemic under control.

The press have been a disgrace on the whole in my opinion. They just seem to bash people all the time and most of what they put out is doom and gloom but I guess that sells.

 

[Healdplace]

I think the apparent decreasing percentage of positive tests is the one ray of light. The Government should make more of it. Let's hope this is the start of a turn-round.

England has never bothered with this and I have always had to work it out because they never do.

The other home nations have long recognised its significance and reported it. Nicola Sturgeon has often cited it as a sign of progress in Scotland and takes the 5% WHO figure as a target.

Just another way in which England has to be different and not do the blindingly obvious.

I assume the scientists 'advising' Boris know it and understand why it matters.

 

[Deleted member 77198]

I'm slightly baffled as to where all these people are going. There are no shops except supermarkets open as far as I'm aware. No hairdressers, no pubs, no restaurants. No schools except for emergency workers kids, no holiday locations or flying allowed even if you could find a country that will let you in and no sporting events.

Just got home after work and the walk home from the bus station today was the most noticeably quiet day I’ve seen since last Monday’s announcement of lockdown.

Felt much safer than previous days since last Monday. Thursday and Friday last week felt very busy out and about.

Don’t know if that was because of the harder messaging this week, the rain, the fact a lot of people went shopping last week to stock up, just a coincidence of time I was there at that point, or all of those things... but it was much quieter just then.

 

[Deleted member 77198]

Is there no briefing today?

 

[BlueHammer85]

still recall a doctor saying peak will be at the end of Jan, so expecting worse figures till then to be honest.

 

[bobbyowenquiff]

The press have been a disgrace on the whole in my opinion. They just seem to bash people all the time and most of what they put out is doom and gloom but I guess that sells.

It's worse than that. They go for the most sensational angle but with no context. The number of deaths is a legitimate story but it needs to be seen in the light of the percentage of positive tests not just the volume of cases. The media tries to politicise everything. Don't get me wrong there has been a huge political failure in this crisis but there needs to be sensible analysis not just gotcha journalism. The videos provided by Dr John Campbell (first shared on this forum) have been fantastic. Just detailed facts backed up by expert analysis instead of what SKY's Beth Rigby thinks the angle is (when she is not breaking lockdown with her media pals). This crisis has been a disaster for most of our mainstream media with a few exceptions (mostly the human stories)

 

[Marvin]

I think the apparent decreasing percentage of positive tests is the one ray of light. The Government should make more of it. Let's hope this is the start of a turn-round.

And also rising levels of vaccinations (+207k according to the BBC).

 

[SB Blue]

We had 18M AZ at the start of the year.

You're right - there is apparently one plant in Wrexham which does the bottling. I don't think it's a shortage of vials,it's a limited capacity at the plant to fill them.

They then need to have some QA check done on them (not sure what, but I doubt it's important to the overall process).

Essentially getting the stuff into and out of the factory has limited capacity.

Isn’t the largest site for production of the AZ vaccine in India at one of the largest vaccine producers? Sure I read somewhere, maybe on here, that they had 50 Million doses ready, although due to regulatory approval it was likely they would have to use these locally until next month. In any case, will make a major difference globally as that capacity starts shipping.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

The enormity of our failure:

 

[Healdplace]

REGIONAL SCOREBOARD HIGHLIGHTS

Will post more at half time and after the match. of course.

SOUTH:-

London - up back to 10, 020 - rise of almost 1500

East - down again by 322 to 4821. Below NW for fifth day running.

South East - down slightly (by 192) to 6770.

South West - down by 48 to 2732.


MIDLANDS:-

East Midlands - up 320 to 3077

West Midlands - down 105 to 4651.


NORTH:-

North East up 612 to 1911

Yorkshire up 726 to 2746 Biggest rise outside London today.


And North West - down 489 - biggest fall of the day - though not a big one really - to 5964.

 

[kaz7]

still recall a doctor saying peak will be at the end of Jan, so expecting worse figures till then to be honest.

mid feb

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Isn’t the largest site for production of the AZ vaccine in India at one of the largest vaccine producers? Sure I read somewhere, maybe on here, that they had 50 Million doses ready, although due to regulatory approval it was likely they would have to use these locally until next month. In any case, will make a major difference globally as that capacity starts shipping.

The Indian supply chain is separate I believe.

The bulk active for us is made in Holland, I think, then filled in the UK. There are other fill sites in Europe.

Likewise, I think there's a separate active and fill supply chain in the US.

Which sites have been registered with the MHRA defines which supply can be used for the UK.

I'd be very surprised if the Indian manufacturing site is registered with UK authorities, or is intended for use outside of developing countries.

(I don't know any of this for sure, but based on past experience and public domain information)

 

[mackenzie]

REGIONAL WEEKLY POP SCORE TABLE FOR ENGLAND (Cases per 100,000 population - high is bad, rising is bad, low and falling good - the bigger the % rise the worse - and higher the % fall best)

REGION // POP SCORE (as of 7 Jan) // POP SCORE 7 days before // INCREASE // % UP/DOWN


LONDON 1005 // 999 // Up 6 // Up 0.6%

EAST 741 /// 742 // Down 1 // Down 0.1%

SOUTH EAST 679 // 664 // Up 15 // Up 2.3%

WEST MIDLANDS 619 // 445 // Up 174 // Up 39%

NORTH WEST 607 // 394 // Up 213 // Up 54%

EAST MIDLANDS 453 // 372 // Up 81 // Up 22%

NORTH EAST 417 // 375 // Up 42 // Up 11%

SOUTH WEST 385 // 301 // Up 84 // Up 28%

YORKSHIRE 323 // 266 // Up 57 // Up 22%


Not hard to see that the trend is up and NW is the one going up the most and fastest and Yorkshire still keeping low whilst inching up. Meanwhile the heavily infected southern regions still top but noticeably slowing or starting to fall. A trend that has accelerated in the next 5 days data.

Told my manager about the NW rise (based on your findings, and particularly Oldham and Tameside where we are) this morning. People are relaxing far too much in the workplace here but she called a zoom meeting at 4pm to remind everyone.
We know that it happened earlier in London last year and it then arrived here in May.
It's happening again.

 

[Blue Llama]

And North West - down 489 - biggest fall of the day - though not a big one really - to 5964.

Good news unless you live in Stockport. Nearly 300 cases reported today. Bloody incredible.

 

[gingerprince]

Im firmly of the opinion that deaths have risen to the numbers they have due to

the new variant being so transmissible in the population so hospital admissions

of younger fitter patients have escalated to point where ventilator and icu beds

have been overwhelmed and doctors have in past x4 or 6 weeks have simply

had to allocate to most likely to survive. Out of hospital deaths for older age maybe

also increased simply due to fact that easier transmissable variant more prevalent

in community so more elderly have contracted and not being moved to hospital for

treatment. So as a society, we have moved quickly to secure vaccine and rolled out

to those more at risk of death and increased those at risk numbers by delaying the

second dose. However, if you are in that same at risk age range and contracted the

virus in past x4 weeks or currently, then likely not to receive treatment to save you?

Hopefully hospital admissions begin to recede and vaccine rollout goes as planned.

 

[Healdplace]

Just to advise an absolute disaster day for Stockport today. Highest numbers in a very long time.

A Pop score rise of 100 is unheard of here. But it happened today.

These are Merseyside like figures.

It had been turning the corner. Hope this is a one off. But really smashed their lead over Trafford in the Pop Score race in one day.

 

[Rammy Blue]

mid feb

Surely that can’t have been predicted? Assuming we stay in some form of lockdown then it shouldn’t be mid Feb, anyway.

 

[Rammy Blue]

Im firmly of the opinion that deaths have risen to the numbers they have due to

the new variant being so transmissible in the population so hospital admissions

of younger fitter patients have escalated to point where ventilator and icu beds

have been overwhelmed and doctors have in past x4 or 6 weeks have simply

had to allocate to most likely to survive. Out of hospital deaths for older age maybe

also increased simply due to fact that easier transmissable variant more prevalent

in community so more elderly have contracted and not being moved to hospital for

treatment. So as a society, we have moved quickly to secure vaccine and rolled out

to those more at risk of death and increased those at risk numbers by delaying the

second dose. However, if you are in that same at risk age range and contracted the

virus in past x4 weeks or currently, then likely not to receive treatment to save you?

Hopefully hospital admissions begin to recede and vaccine rollout goes as planned.

That’s so hard to read when posted like that, lol.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

Isn’t the largest site for production of the AZ vaccine in India at one of the largest vaccine producers? Sure I read somewhere, maybe on here, that they had 50 Million doses ready, although due to regulatory approval it was likely they would have to use these locally until next month. In any case, will make a major difference globally as that capacity starts shipping.

No idea, sorry. I hadn't heard that, but it wouldn't surprise me if there was a huge production plant there.