Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

Sad that my over 1500 prediction for all settings deaths and a new record today earlier was true. But it was inevitable at some point soon given how really fast the England hospital deaths have soared since Christmas.

So scary I gave up trying to post daily numbers as I was as there are too many to take in.

Sufficient to know we went from numbers that were 3 weeks from the April peak to at and then beyond them all since New Year's Day and that trajectory was terrifying. Just in England.

From adding on 50 a day and then 100 a day we were seeing over 300 a day being added and inside two weeks five day totals were going up when allocated to the actual day of death by 100 every few days from 200 to 300 to 400 to 500. It was too clear where that would end. More clear than the daily figure announced usually is as that is presented as if from yesterday but spread across multiple dates. Only the deaths ON the actual date showed the real upward spiral manifesting literally day to day.

Just wish I could say that we will not top 2000 soon. But I fear that may be unlikely.

I am convinced it did not need to go this high with faster action and that will ultimately be shown true and when this is over we will have one heck of a row over it that may even split the UK.

 

[Manc Born & Bred]

Thoughts go out to all those families who have suffered the loss of a loved one. Glimmer of light is that the vaccine is here and the number of infections appears to be dropping below 50k so hopefully over the next few weeks it will continue to drop even further although as we know deaths lag behind so unfortunately the figure may be high for a little longer.

 

[KennyG]

There's a Brazilian variant? Fucking hell, this'll never end.

My heart skipped a beat then. Are we being exterminated?

 

[grunge]

There's a Brazilian variant? Fucking hell, this'll never end.

unless its a new one there was discussion of a brazil variant being detected back in April but it fizzled out back then.

 

[ell]

Gyms are shut aren't they?

Exactly, so those staff are on furlough.

 

[grunge]

My heart skipped a beat then. Are we being exterminated?

there are about 60k+ "variants" of it so far. but only 25 or so known strains.

I think we're going to hear a lot more about other countries strains as everyone is going to want to deflect from any variants that have popped up.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Don't get too stressed about new variants. Nearly 4,000 have been discovered - every dot on the chart below is a new one on the family tree.

COVID mutates much more slowly than flu.

 

[Rammy Blue]

What I find incredibly frustrating, enraging even, is that it was obvious three weeks ago that exactly this would happen, and nothing was done about it (except in London).

Merseyside were partying up until the 30th Dec!

 

[unicorn]

I'm slightly baffled as to where all these people are going. There are no shops except supermarkets open as far as I'm aware. No hairdressers, no pubs, no restaurants. No schools except for emergency workers kids, no holiday locations or flying allowed even if you could find a country that will let you in and no sporting events.

I always wondered that, but having moved to Sheffield (near Hillsborough) where all the industrial units, garages, takeaways and supermarkets are open as usual I can tell you they're working. I guess that's why we can still get most of what we could get a year ago apart from City, a pint and a haircut.

Public transport and town centre completely dead, but the main roads seem busy (probably half normal levels).

 

[denislawsbackheel]

I'm slightly baffled as to where all these people are going. There are no shops except supermarkets open as far as I'm aware. No hairdressers, no pubs, no restaurants. No schools except for emergency workers kids, no holiday locations or flying allowed even if you could find a country that will let you in and no sporting events.

Schools are operating at 50% capacity in several places. It’s a lot more than vulnerable children and emergency workers kids attending!

 

[Healdplace]

47, 527 cases from 546, 894 pillar 1 & 2 tests. Lower if you add on other pillars. I only use these two

Positivity 8,7%

That is very encouraging. As it is over 29K tests more than yesterday when there were 2000 fewer cases.

And 104 K tests more than 2 days ago.

So 1356 MORE cases than 2 days ago with over 104 thousand extra tests than on that date.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

Last I read was that we have the vaccines but its actually a shortage of the glass vials they go into that is a bottle neck.

plus "securing" millions means we have bought them, doesn't mean they are actually here yet. could still be getting produced.

world vaccines are going to be like buying a PS5 soon.

We had 18M AZ at the start of the year.

You're right - there is apparently one plant in Wrexham which does the bottling. I don't think it's a shortage of vials,it's a limited capacity at the plant to fill them.

They then need to have some QA check done on them (not sure what, but I doubt it's important to the overall process).

Essentially getting the stuff into and out of the factory has limited capacity.

 

[carlosthejackal]

Sad that my over 1500 prediction for all settings deaths and a new record today earlier was true. But it was inevitable at some point soon given how really fast the England hospital deaths have soared since Christmas.

So scary I gave up trying to post daily numbers as I was as there are too many to take in.

Sufficient to know we went from numbers that were 3 weeks from the April peak to at and then beyond them all since New Year's Day and that trajectory was terrifying. Just in England.

From adding on 50 a day and then 100 a day we were seeing over 300 a day being added and inside two weeks five day totals were going up when allocated to the actual day of death by 100 every few days from 200 to 300 to 400 to 500. It was too clear where that would end. More clear than the daily figure announced usually is as that is presented as if from yesterday but spread across multiple dates. Only the deaths ON the actual date showed the real upward spiral manifesting literally day to day.

Just wish I could say that we will not top 2000 soon. But I fear that may be unlikely.

I am convinced it did not need to go this high with faster action and that will ultimately be shown true and when this is over we will have one heck of a row over it that may even split the UK.

Are these figures a direct result of Christmas and the two days of joy ?

 

[paulchapo]

Everyone is numb to it. Quick look around social media, hardly anyone is arsed. Absolutely insane.

I think it's more "What else can I do?" for a lot of people. I go out every 7-10 days to stock up on food as I have no choice or I'll die of starvation. Aside from that I stay indoors. If I could get a delivery when I needed one I wouldn't go out to shop. I think you'll get some complacency too with people thinking they've been okay so far so they'll be okay now. Also we tend to have a lot of people used to getting their own way for decades and just won't obey anything they're told. Certain parts of the media and government don't help as certain ones in both camps just lecture and bash people all the time and it's detrimental as no matter what the danger it gets people's back up. Then we have the empty promises of "Just two more months" and things will relax and they don't so people get worn down. There are a myriad of reasons and I'm not defending any of them but that's humans for you

 

[Rammy Blue]

Shit the bed, look how many from Monday, that doesn’t bode well for the next few days, and weeks.

 

[Rammy Blue]

Last I read was that we have the vaccines but its actually a shortage of the glass vials they go into that is a bottle neck.

plus "securing" millions means we have bought them, doesn't mean they are actually here yet. could still be getting produced.

world vaccines are going to be like buying a PS5 soon.

Thank fuck we got ahead of the curve, especially as the EU hasn’t even approved the Oxford vaccine yet.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

47, 527 cases from 546, 894 pillar 1 & 2 tests. Lower if you add on other pillars. I only use these two

Positivity 8,7%

That is very encouraging. As it is over 29K tests more than yesterday.

And 104 K tests more than 2 days ago.

So 1356 MORE cases than 2 days ago with over 104 thousand extra tests than that date.

Good to still be able to find some good news.

I wasn't expecting the deaths to leap by anywhere near as much as they have. I think you're right that the next few days may just get worse.

 

[bobbyowenquiff]

47, 527 cases from 546, 894 pillar 1 & 2 tests. Lower if you add on other pillars. I only use these two

Positivity 8,7%

That is very encouraging. As it is over 29K tests more than yesterday.

And 104 K tests more than 2 days ago.

So 1356 MORE cases than 2 days ago with over 104 thousand extra tests than that date.

I think the apparent decreasing percentage of positive tests is the one ray of light. The Government should make more of it. Let's hope this is the start of a turn-round.

 

[Healdplace]

I dare say the media will just report cases went UP today. As they did. But miss the importance of the extra tests and how the positivity numbers are going down. By far the most important numbers right now.

As noted before if you get to a positivity of 5% the WHO reckon you have a pandemic under control.

 

[Healdplace]

Are these figures a direct result of Christmas and the two days of joy ?

Cases are now almost entirely from the aftermath - likely part of why they have dropped dramatically and suddenly by 10K or so when the Christmas / New Year 'Boost' was over.

Deaths are from around the time we began to vaccinate - a month or more ago.

When cases were escalating and we sat arguing for weeks over whether to have a merry little Christmas instead of shutting down as was what anyone could see was necessary.

Well anyone not making the decisions at least.