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worsleyweb
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vote leave clowns? We had a referendum?
Coronavirus (2021) thread
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vote leave clowns? We had a referendum?
Tim of the Oak
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It’s very sad news.
i8rags
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Fuck me is all I can say
BlueAnorak
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Look at the case number graphs over Christmas. There is no acceleration at all. None, zip, bugger all.
The staggered closing of schools prior to Christmas removed the foot from the case accelerator.
roubaixtuesday
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Sobering stuff.
I think Wednesday is generally the worst day of the week?
If so, I'm hopeful this will be the peak day for deaths for this wave,
BlueHammer85
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BBC news facebook comments to this are so warped, it's like they are being trolled by Trump fans. all in complete denial and calling it a hoax. something has to be done by social media company's about all this
kevin horlocks wand
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thanks but again when you compare the cases to the same day last week it is again 20% down. 47.5k v 38.9k. Wednesday to Wednesday
each day now the case numbers are falling consistently by approx 20% on the same day the previous week.
death numbers are bad and it’s going to be bad for a while but if case numbers are falling by 20% Ona weekly comparison hopefully we will see death numbers start to turn as well.
roubaixtuesday
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I'm not sure you really have the ability to deconvolute a single day from subsequent case numbers when testing is all over the place due to public holidays, and virus incubation times from case to case vary by many days.
What we do know for certain is:
(1) Close contact indoors is the most risky activity possible for COVID transmission.
(2) The govt encouraged this over Christmas.
Rammy Blue
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Especially as every day passes has more people having jabs and their immunity kicking in, it’s just not going to happen overnight, but I’m sure in 2 weeks time we should be looking better.
grunge
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2 massive spikes exactly 4 days after xMas day and New years eve. It clearly spread it as predicted.
but thankfully, so far, doesn't seem to have translated directly into hospitalisations, or at least no noticable spikes 2 weeks after those.
lee_wsm
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Very scary figures today
BlueAnorak
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Sorry to say but 8% or so of those hospitalised die. It was 26% back in the 1st wave so thats an improvement.
Of todays 3,887 admitted to hospital, 311 will die in the coming weeks.
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BlueAnorak
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The one 4 days after Christmas matches a corresponding dip on Christmas - so statistically it is purely a case tssting/reporting lag.
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kevin horlocks wand
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totally agree.
the other inconvenient truth is lots of transmission is in hospitals. A lot of people go into hospital for something else and end up catching Covid. My aunt did.
now that health care workers have been vaccinated this will really help with the spread of Covid in hospitals which is going to be a big help With the numbers.
the vaccination numbers are also high again today after a dip in recent days .347k.
roubaixtuesday
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Need to be really careful with those sorts of claims - In the first wave they were only really admitting critical patients at the peak, as I understand it. This time around people are getting admitted earlier in the course of the disease. I'm not saying things haven't improved, just that need to take care interpreting raw figures
grunge
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Its by sample date. so its the date the person took a test. its only the "reported date" ones that suffer that lag and catch up.
kaz7
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It is the front line staff i feel really sorry for ,this has taken a heavy toll on their mental health
cleavers
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Political debate is in the political forum, thanks.
Still not seen one good reason why this isn't an overtly political discussion.
cleavers
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Cases by specimen update for several days after the day as data catches up, it's happened every Tuesday and Wednesday since April, so the +4 days is misleading, as it's just catch ups.
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