Coronavirus (2021) thread

[BlueHammer85]

That's what ive told her but she's a bit of a shitbag, Ive not got the app so haven't had anything saying I need to isolate but I don't think I would be doing so if I did

if my next door neighbour tested positive and i've been nowhere near them - then no i wouldn't isolate.

 

[worsleyweb]

Sorry, best to stick with flowers and picnics to stay in tune with the lovely topic of Coronavirus.

Seriously - can I recommend that you do not switch on the news round about 5pm today - they're sure to announce that some people in the UK have died - you might not want to hear it. There's also a separate thread for positive news only on this subject which might be of interest to you.

As for the timing of the post, it was published at 1am, its from a reputable source and links to the centre for disease control. Rather than looking for only positive news or only negative news, I just find it better to live in the real world and look for news in general.

Well you are entitled to your opinion but i am putting you on ignore you as i find you approach to it too depressive at present.

 

[Deleted member 77198]

I’d also add people should ignore the current MSM headlines about the lockdown not working. The data they are all reporting from has the
Dates of survey being 8-15th January.

Prevalence takes longer to fall than incidence as people test positive with a PCR for a period of time.

So ignore anything you read in the papers saying it’s stop falling or lockdown isn’t working etc.

Spot on.

 

[MeatnSpudsMCFC]

Worst decision of the Pandemic?

“Information leaflets”.


Some people are so naive. It’s become clear over time that our entire response in early 2020 was based on behavioural science.

Manned airport booth where people can self-present - There’s just been a case where a celebrity tried to board a plane from Barbados to the UK despite knowing they were positive for covid. So they can throw that in the bin.

 

[Healdplace]

I think my take on the 'disaster' of the vaccine and the new variant meaning doom is that what the Israeli study of the mass vaccination programme is showing is what most of us suspected all along.

In a competitive environment with huge success of companies at stake for whoever creates the 'most successful' vaccine the numbers produced were almost certainly what I might call optimistic.

Things like the flu vaccine are tweaked all the time to keep them responsive to ever arriving new strains but are rarely much more than around 60% effective. They are essential because they stop the majority catching it and likely reduce the impact of the illness on those that still do which in some cases will save lives.

Quite often flu is not what kills but secondary consequences triggering underlying conditions that prove the real problem. Much the same happens with Covid.

To most people it is primarily a mild but in a modest percentage of cases a nasty illness. Just like flu is as you only find out when you get it because so many young people equate it with just a bad cold - and flu isn't that at all - what they had WAS a bad cold - not flu. The difference is obvious once you have had both.

Same with Covid. To the vast majority it is a minor problem and over 50% barely seem to even notice they had it and only a small percent get really sick with it. And even most of them treat it at home and will be in the is it flu or a very bad cold area of illness. The vast majority who end up in hospital with Covid and are at serious risk have more than one medical issues that make their body systems vulnerable and sometimes over react trying to fight it off.

Plenty of 80 and 90 year olds have fought it off without a vaccine. Almost certainly far more than succumbed to it. The difference likely was mostly their underlying health conditions (far more common by that age) or simply genetics and misfortune.

I suspect the 60% effectivity of a flu vaccine is a good guide to what the true efficacy of these Covid vaccines will turn out to be in real life. And that will save many lives. But as with flu not all of them. Some simply have bad luck and no vaccine will save them.

But the really key thing about the vaccines is the one nearly everyone ignores in the argument over how well it stops you catching Covid. That actually does not matter all that much IF it minimises the severity of the illness that you catch. That is usually the main benefit of the flu jab too and will probably be the saving grace of these vaccines.

It was the biggest thing I noted about the Oxford one when everyone focused on the others having far higher success from you catching Covid.

They were looking at the wrong thing we actually need from Covid. If a vaccine means 99% who catch it get an illness no worse than the current maybe 69% who do and who do not get very sick or die or swamp the NHS then THAT makes the vaccine a huge success not a failure.

I have a feeling that may be where we end up here.

 

[grunge]

Thought of the day.

with the early predictions. it was predicted by Neil Ferguson that 500k people could die of Covid in the UK if no action was taken. He has been slated a lot for it as being wildly off.

However, We are at about 23/24% of the population who have had Covid now( from latest studies mentioned in the video below ) with very nearly 100k deaths. Ergo, if we hit 100% naturally. then we're at around 400k deaths. and thats with lockdowns.

doesn't seem now that his predictions were so wildly off after all.

Thankfully the vaccine should stop it...

 

[ayrshire_blue]

Have been a season card holder for 38 years. I am suffering really badly with Covid at the moment. Waiting for a doctor to call me back through 111. i have a terrible feeling that that game will be the last that I see.

Remembered this post from Sunday night and great to see that you've been online late last night. I hope this means that you got to take in the Villa game? Either way, really hope you're on the mend? Please let us know how you're doing if in a position to. Good luck fella.

 

[BLUEMATT23]

Thought of the day.

with the early predictions. it was predicted by Neil Ferguson that 500k people could die of Covid in the UK if no action was taken. He has been slated a lot for it as being wildly off.

However, We are at about 23/24% of the population who have had Covid now( from latest studies mentioned in the video below ) with very nearly 100k deaths. Ergo, if we hit 100% naturally. then we're at around 400k deaths. and thats with lockdowns.

doesn't seem now that his predictions were so wildly off after all.

Thankfully the vaccine should stop it...

Neil Ferguson is an absolute idiot.
Most of what he says is utter Crap

 

[Healdplace]

Scotland update:

89 deaths - it was 64 last week

1636 cases - it was 1707 last week

This was at 7.0% positive.

Patients 2004 - up 1 - it was 1829 last week

Ventilator icu 161 - up 5 - it was 142 last week.

 

[blueparrot]

Neil Ferguson is an absolute idiot.
Most of what he says is utter Crap

He may be an idiot, not everything he says is wrong.

 

[BLUEMATT23]

He may be an idiot, not everything he says is wrong.

Sorry but I disagree the mans a fool
He has a history of incorrect predictions if you look him up.

 

[Healdplace]

Scotland vaccination data:

Total as of 8 am this morning 334, 871

It was 314, 079 yesterday

20, 792 doses administered yesterday about 1000 down on yesterday if my sums are right.

 

[twosips]

He may be an idiot, not everything he says is wrong.

Correct. I think its pretty obvious now that his 500k prediction wasn't particularly wild tbh. The stats back it up. Imagine how many would be dying at home/on floors at hospitals now if we'd done nothing cos hospitals would be utterly filled to the brim? They already are, and that's with 95% of the population drastically changing how they live.

 

[blueparrot]

Scotland vaccination data:

Total as of 8 am this morning 334, 871

It was 314, 079 yesterday

20, 792 doses administered yesterday about 1000 down on yesterday if my sums are right.

It was 309,909 yesterday, according to this anyway.

Scotland Coronavirus Tracker

Current and historical data of the Coronavirus outbreak in Scotland. Includes breakdowns by region, maps, charts, and more!

www.travellingtabby.com

 

[Healdplace]

By the way Hancock this morning told MPs that 4.6 million vaccinations have now been given.

And that 63% of care home residents in England have been.

It is better than it was but well behind the 93% I think was the last figure given for Scotland.

 

[Healdplace]

It was 309,909 yesterday, according to this anyway.

Scotland Coronavirus Tracker

Current and historical data of the Coronavirus outbreak in Scotland. Includes breakdowns by region, maps, charts, and more!

www.travellingtabby.com

I think that number is just first doses. Mine included all doses.

So depends if that number given verbally in the report just now was including second or was also just first.

If not then including second it will be a few thousand more.

The two dose regime complicates things as not all the UK nations report this data in the same way. Other than in their final reports later in the day on Gov UK where even there it is confusing to read all the numbers and work out who did what and when.

 

[domalino]

Sorry but I disagree the mans a fool
He has a history of incorrect predictions if you look him up.

He doesn't have a history of incorrect predictions.

He has a history of publishing studies where the media publicises the worst case scenario if no action is taken, and then when serious action is taken to prevent that happening, idiots complain he got it wrong.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

Scotland update:

89 deaths - it was 64 last week

1636 cases - it was 1707 last week

This was at 7.0% positive.

Patients 2004 - up 1 - it was 1829 last week

Ventilator icu 161 - up 5 - it was 142 last week.

Sad to read those number of deaths

 

[Healdplace]

	England 1st dose dailyUnsorted column - Apply ascending sort.	Northern Ireland 1st dose dailyUnsorted column - Apply ascending sort.	Scotland 1st dose dailyUnsorted column - Apply ascending sort.	Wales 1st dose dailyUnsorted column - Apply ascending sort.	England 1st dose totalUnsorted column - Apply ascending sort.	Northern Ireland 1st dose totalUnsorted column - Apply ascending sort.	Scotland 1st dose totalUnsorted column - Apply ascending sort.	Wales 1st dose totalUnsorted column - Apply ascending sort.
19-01-2021	298,373	5,579	25,327	13,884	3,985,579	138,436	309,909	175,816

This is how the FIRST doses are tabulated on Gov UK. There is a similar list for second doses.

The above is yesterday so there were 309, 909 1 st doses up to yesterday. The other 4000 or so atop were second doses. Though only about 200 a day of those are now being done in Scotland

 

[BlueAnorak]

England's lockdown failing to drive down Covid-19 cases, major survey shows

upday.com

f7td5.app.goo.gl

OK its over a week old but it's no surprise. PHE weekly reports indicate there are problems that are not being addressed.
- Schools are open for 40% of pupils. To high I'm afraid with this new stain. 50% increase in viral load in children aged 12-14.
- Major increase of cases in supermarkets. The vendors are talking the talk but not walking the talk. They are simply complaining about abuse and not doing anything about Covidiots and Ventilation.