Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Summerbuzz said:
I'm risking making a political discussion here, but I feel this is where the govt have a chance to make a difference.

They have been advised on measures that would likely help increase the number of people who ought to get tested doing so, and to increase the percentage of people who do test positive going on to isolate safely as is neccessary if we are to drive down cases.

Stick - enforcement, messaging to the public and bosses.

Carrot - helping cover financially, and providing other benefits that make it more comfortable and managable.

Many ideas had been researched & floated by advisors, civil servants, SAGE & Others.

I think Boris' famed optimism overlaps with a bit of 'don't do it & risk a bit of a failure unless you absolutely have to', and Tory squeamishness at doing things like giving people - anyone - a quick cash boost, or giving everyone Netflix. The studies report these things would pay for themselves easily. Ideological aversion to the morality of 'providing' for people should be put aside in this time of great need and peril.
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They sound like good ideas to me mate. I guess the other stick would be to put offenders to the back of the queue for vaccines.
 
All the gloom is understandable but I think about where we were 10 months ago when things looked incredibly bleak. We had no real idea why the virus was acting as it was. No effective treatments and no realistic expectation of any vaccines until maybe sometime around when Glastonbury 2021 was due if we were lucky,

The world came together and we made rapid progress on all these fronts. Of course, there will be more unexpected set backs. But the entire planet is facing this threat together and there is a huge plus from that.

It no longer is about ideology or who has money or which country is friends with which other country. It is about saving the planet and human society as we know it in our diverse quirky yet ultimately all human ways. And that has created a gigantic effort the likes of which we have never witnessed before litetrally in the millions of years we have existed as a conscious species.

The dinosaurs were prevented from inheriting the Earth because they had no community, no science and no awareness that meteors existed or what they could do if they struck. They also had no time to fight it off. It was over in a flash.

We have so many advantages here that we will eventually beat this. Or more likely reach a kind of equilibrium with the virus where we co exist in a cold war scenario where we learn to forget the threat as it has been significantly minimised by a naturally arrived at detente.

If we are wise as a species - which is possibly a big if - this will change our planet for the better and be the kind of purge we had to endure in order to understand what we had to do to make this planet a better place for all.

We are in a sense privileged to be living through a pivotal moment in the history of mankind that 1000 years from now will be discussed in children's history classes.

What every single person does day to day now - tiny little decisions that they may not think matter a jot - DO matter - and bit by bit may be what turn the tide.

The question is do you want to be someone those who inherit the world that our actions now will create look back upon and think - we should all be more like THEM - or who they revile as someone who was the scourge of humanity and put self before the survival of society as we know it?

You may not care but when the BBC make the 100th series of Who Do You Think You Are? in 2103 and one of your great grandchildren - then a famous hero - delves into their past and they talk about what their ancestor did during the great pandemic that changed the world - how do you want them to feel about you?

Proud or disgusted?
 
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Some good(ish) news.

England hospital deaths 789 - down from 884 last week.


Obviously still looking at a 1000 plus number in total today but that is a step in the right direction.
 
over 2 Million vaccines done in last 7 days so looks like things are on track and hopefully will ramp up.

Wonder if the bad weather will have an effect though.
 
BLUEMATT23 said:
Yep I read an article at the start of the year saying 2020 would be a tea party compared to this year and sadly I think it's true.
There will be no events, no holidays, no gym at all this year. I've wrote the year off completely, it's not being pessimistic it's being realistic. I had a a holiday booked for October but I've cancelled it today.
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have you ever considered becoming an inspirational speaker?
 
BLUEMATT23 said:
Yep I read an article at the start of the year saying 2020 would be a tea party compared to this year and sadly I think it's true.
There will be no events, no holidays, no gym at all this year. I've wrote the year off completely, it's not being pessimistic it's being realistic. I had a a holiday booked for October but I've cancelled it today.
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The G7 is on in Cornwall in June

So thinks should be close to normality here by then

flights abroad though is anyones guess
 
BLUEMATT23 said:
Maybe yes you may be right, however I don't buy into the optimism shown by some.
Time and time again Boris has given dates when we should get back to "normal" and he's been wrong, he said Christmas, February and now Easter, all are wrong. The government's handling of it has been awful and I blame them for a lot of the shit that's happening. I hope they get sacked off soon. We have been shown up by other countries big time.
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Well we're vaccinating 320,000 people a day. That's not a Boris prediction.

So even if the numbers didn't go up as supply got better and more and more centres come online, we're looking at 75 million doses by August 1. That's enough to give 2 jabs to everyone over 45 and a single dose to everyone over 25.

And that's if nothing about the supply chain/logistics improves. Which it will.
 
BLUEMATT23 said:
Yep I read an article at the start of the year saying 2020 would be a tea party compared to this year and sadly I think it's true.
There will be no events, no holidays, no gym at all this year. I've wrote the year off completely, it's not being pessimistic it's being realistic. I had a a holiday booked for October but I've cancelled it today.
Click to expand...
if were not getting away untill after october i can see the likes of Ryanair and easyjet going bust,how much longer can all these airlines hold out for, all these planes need massive servicing jobs now as they have been stood in fields for months,all this will push flight travel costs upwards to a point we wont pay it
 
mrbelfry said:
I got pinged whilst being pretty sure I wouldn't have caught it. I took the approach that I may be wrong, asymptomatic, not know it and infect people particularly with the Kent variant in play. Also you can be fined £1,000 if you ignore the app. If she's not going anywhere anyway then why not isolate?
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How can you get fined if you ignore the app, I might be wrong but you don't put any personal details in besides first part of your postcode?
 
Healdplace said:
All the gloom is understandable but I think about where we were 10 months ago when things looked incredibly bleak. We had no real idea why the virus was acting as it was. No effective treatments and no realistic expectation of any vaccines until maybe sometime around when Glastonbury 2021 was due if we were lucky,

The world came together and we made rapid progress on all these fronts. Of course, there will be more unexpected set backs. But the entire planet is facing this threat together and there is a huge plus from that.

It no longer is about ideology or who has money or which country is friends with which other country. It is about saving the planet and human society as we know it in our diverse quirky yet ultimately all human ways. And that has created a gigantic effort the likes of which we have never witnessed before litetrally in the millions of years we have existed as a conscious species.

The dinosaurs were prevented from inheriting the Earth because they had no community, no science and no awareness that meteors existed or what they could do if they struck. They also had no time to fight it off. It was over in a flash.

We have so many advantages here that we will eventually beat this. Or more likely reach a kind of equilibrium with the virus where we co exist in a cold war scenario where we learn to forget the threat as it has been significantly minimised by a naturally arrived at detente.

If we are wise as a species - which is possibly a big if - this will change our planet for the better and be the kind of purge we had to endure in order to understand what we had to do to make this planet a better place for all.

We are in a sense privileged to be living through a pivotal moment in the history of mankind that 1000 years from now will be discussed in children's history classes.

What every single person does day to day now - tiny little decisions that they may not think matter a jot - DO matter - and bit by bit may be what turn the tide.

The question is do you want to be someone those who inherit the world that our actions now will create look back upon and think - we should all be more like THEM - or who they revile as someone who was the scourge of humanity and put self before the survival of society as we know it?

You may not care but when the BBC make the 100th series of Who Do You Think You Are? in 2103 and one of your great grandchildren - then a famous hero - delves into their past and they talk about what their ancestor did during the great pandemic that changed the world - how do you want them to feel about you?

Proud or disgusted?
Click to expand...
Very good post. My only concern is that man and animal are geographically overlapping due to the human population growth. The more we continue to venture into the animal world the more likely that this will not be the last virus to conflict untold damage.
 
It was reported in the Scottish press yesterday that Jason Leitch (Scotland’s Senior Clinical Advisor) had privately cautioned Civil Servants in Edinburgh against booking foreign holidays this summer; i.e. if booking, make sure you have full holiday insurance. However, he was slightly more optimistic about foreign travel later, so maybe in the October/Christmas period. Holy Land for Christmas?...
 
BLUEMATT23 said:
Maybe yes you may be right, however I don't buy into the optimism shown by some.
Time and time again Boris has given dates when we should get back to "normal" and he's been wrong, he said Christmas, February and now Easter, all are wrong. The government's handling of it has been awful and I blame them for a lot of the shit that's happening. I hope they get sacked off soon. We have been shown up by other countries big time.
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I totally get fearing the worst mate. It's a pretty common coping mechanism - tell yourself everything is terrible, and so if it does happen it doesn't come as a surprise. Humans do it all the time. City fans do it on a less harmful scale every single game! 'Typical City' we say to ourselves before a game, expecting City to lose against an easy team, even though know the odds are hugely stacked in City's favour and they're likely gonna win it. And usually do. It feels easier to say something negative and not be surprised if you're right, but then be pleasantly wrong, as opposed to saying something positive and fear getting your hopes dashed. I get it mate, I truly do.

During scenarios like this though, it's also called catastrophizing. Catastrophizing is basically viewing a situation as massively worse than it is, and ignoring all evidence that suggests otherwise. I do it sometimes, but I've tried hard to know when I am. It isn't easy, i'll admit that, but it certainly doesn't help, and it certainly isn't rational. It's the exact opposite of the happy clapper mentality, and both damaging in their own way. You're fearing the worst at every possible turn and you're ignoring common sense at the same time. I don't blame you, but try and recognise it mate for your own good. Take this pandemic for example. It's utterly fucking shite, I'm not going to dress that up. But it isn't a new and unique experience. Pandemics happen. And cos pandemics happen, we also know that pandemics go. This one will too.

Here's some pretty undeniable truths for you. We literally know things will get better in the summer either way. They did last year. Look at this graph:

Screenshot 2021-01-21 at 14.22.07.png


It is clear to anyone with half a brain that this virus is seasonal. Lockdowns will help, sure, but we all know *really* that the reason it literally did disappear over the summer is because that's how these seasonal viruses work. Now when you add vastly more significant herd immunity from general spread over winter (and it has been painful, yes - but it is a thing), and then even the vaccines working even just a tiny bit, then I can't see any logical, scientific reason why summer won't be like last year, if not even lower in terms of numbers.

I don't think many of us realised how little it was spread about last summer compared to what we're seeing now. The odds of getting it were tiny. I don't see any reason why it won't be the same. New variant a factor? Yeah, sure, but if anything the new variant just pushes us closer to the end goal, quicker. Herd immunity. It's a thing, whether its reached via vaccines or catching it. The new variant will still very likely act like a seasonal virus too.

Now I don't know about you, but last summer I certainly remember gyms being open, I certainly remember being able to sit outside or inside at pubs and restaurants. And I did! I had some lovely walks, and I felt comfortable and relaxed chatting to friends safely outside in gardens. It isn't optimal, no, but its a damn sight better than what we have now. It will happen mate. As for holidays? Well, I don't know. Maybe overseas travel may be a little more cautious, but you've got to remember that this government was one of the last to close travel, and i'd wager that if they got a chance to open it with cases and deaths very, very low, then they might do again. Plus, many countries literally rely on tourism. I guarantee they'll want people back at the first sign of normality.

Now I know you'll say 'but it could evolve and reinfect people'. Correct! Though all the scientists I follow don't seem to think tha' any changes would make it more deadly, and even if it did become a situation where people could be reinfected, it is still highly likely that the symptoms would be much less the second time around given some residual understanding from your immune system. When this starts to happen, the virus just becomes endemic. It becomes another thing we put up with, and our bodies understand it better. This is how we've gotten through pandemics before, and I don't see any reason as to why it wouldn't happen again.

Anyway mate, I get it. I truly do. Things are overwhelmingly bleak. I feel it every day too, sometimes really down about it all, but normality will return simply because everything we know suggests it will. It could be painful for a bit on the way, yep, but we will get there one way or another. Big love mate. Hang on in there :)
 
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marco said:
if were not getting away untill after october i can see the likes of Ryanair and easyjet going bust,how much longer can all these airlines hold out for, all these planes need massive servicing jobs now as they have been stood in fields for months,all this will push flight travel costs upwards to a point we wont pay it
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Yes I agree but where is the Government road map to recovery? They should be planning now and giving dates back for normality and telling people when they can do stuff.
 
BLUEMATT23 said:
Yep I read an article at the start of the year saying 2020 would be a tea party compared to this year and sadly I think it's true.
There will be no events, no holidays, no gym at all this year. I've wrote the year off completely, it's not being pessimistic it's being realistic. I had a a holiday booked for October but I've cancelled it today.
Click to expand...

While I think the concept of normality by summer is overly optimistic I do feel we're going to be in an infinitly better position.

the main issue with things like Glastonbury + Holidays is those are mostly international events. while we as a country could be in a great place, no guarantee's other countries will be in a good place.

Glastonbury for example, the vast majority of the acts will in international. if we still have quarantine for incoming visitors due to outbreaks around the world it makes that pretty difficult logistically.
 
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