Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Mr Coopz said:
It didn’t surprise me reading it but an article I saw earlier talking about a leaked report regarding SAGE recommending social restrictions way into 2022 has put me on a real downer. I’m fucking sick of my existence. Masks don’t bother me but the idea of further lockdowns and long periods without seeing my family and friends is just too depressing to even think about. God knows how business owners are feeling.
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I've linked to one of the reports above.

Here it is again.


They are not making any recommendations, just looking at how things pan out depending on how fast restrictions are lifted.

They don't even consider further lock downs - all scenarios involve relaxing at least to the level of last summer by September.

They show there is a danger of a significant third spike (higher than the recent peak) if *all* restrictions are removed before year end.

There is a lot of uncertainty on these, they're possible scenarios, not hard predictions. They really help inform how much risk it's sensible to take.

My own take on this: the summer will be at least as open as last year, very likely more so. We should be cautious in the Autumn, and respond rapidly at any signs of a third peak coming.
 
Mr Coopz said:
It didn’t surprise me reading it but an article I saw earlier talking about a leaked report regarding SAGE recommending social restrictions way into 2022 has put me on a real downer. I’m fucking sick of my existence. Masks don’t bother me but the idea of further lockdowns and long periods without seeing my family and friends is just too depressing to even think about. God knows how business owners are feeling.
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There will be some restrictions but I honestly believe this will be the last full lockdown. Not been in my elderly parents home since October but they’ve had their 1st vax now and I’m expecting mine soon so I will definitely be seeing them properly very soon .
 
kaz7 said:
Here is something nice

A couple in their 80s who have been married for 60 years have had an emotional reunion after being kept apart for almost a year by the coronavirus pandemic.

Stanley and Mavis Harbour, from Bolton

news.sky.com

COVID-19: Bolton couple reunited after 12 months apart due to pandemic

The couple, married for 60 years, have been separated since last February due to visiting restrictions at his care home.
news.sky.com news.sky.com
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The second thing he did was take off his backpack...
 
roubaixtuesday said:
I've linked to one of the reports above.

Here it is again.


They are not making any recommendations, just looking at how things pan out depending on how fast restrictions are lifted.

They don't even consider further lock downs - all scenarios involve relaxing at least to the level of last summer by September.

They show there is a danger of a significant third spike (higher than the recent peak) if *all* restrictions are removed before year end.

There is a lot of uncertainty on these, they're possible scenarios, not hard predictions. They really help inform how much risk it's sensible to take.

My own take on this: the summer will be at least as open as last year, very likely more so. We should be cautious in the Autumn, and respond rapidly at any signs of a third peak coming.
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Apologies for what might seem a stupid question, and I did glance quick at the graphs a couple of pages back, but just in layman’s terms why would we have a 4th wave/surge in deaths to higher than the current peak when in theory all adults (or at least over 80% take up and herd immunity levels reached) should have been vaccinated by about summertime? Am I missing something? I thought the whole point of mass vaccination meant we either didn’t catch it or even if we did it’d be a mild illness?
 
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I am guessing because the virus will almost certainly mutate at some point to outwit the vaccine. And we will need to revaccinate to make up for that this autumn. But there will always be a gap between new strain v vaccine tweaked to deal with it - so we will be chasing the virus possibly for years in this way until it is eradicated globally and/or the UK isolates itself like New Zealand or the Isle of Man. Which we likely cannot or will not.

So rapid monitoring and lockdowns to stop spread might still be necessary for short periods maybe for a year or two. Though not on the scale up to know I would hope.

And this is probably worst case scenario but one we will have to anticipate in case.
 
Healdplace said:
I am guessing because the virus will almost certainly mutate at some point to outwit the vaccine. And we will need to revaccinate to make up for that this autumn. But there will always be a gap between new strain v vaccine tweaked to deal with it - so we will be chasing the virus possibly for years in this way until it is eradicated globally and/or the UK isolates itself like New Zealand or the Isle of Man. Which we likely cannot or will not.

So rapid monitoring and lockdowns to stop spread might still be necessary for short periods maybe for a year or two. Though not on the scale up to know I would hope.

And this is probably worst case scenario but one we will have to anticipate in case.
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New Zealand’s economy is growing back above pre pandemic levels. The Countries that took tougher decisions tend to have recovering economies.
 
SWP's back said:
About 20% refusing is exactly what I’d expect mate. My aunt owns 5 care/nursing homes (yeah she’s mega loaded, no I won’t be in the will) and they had similar experience. Especially when it’s a PoA resident and someone’s making the decision for them.
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The Pao probably wants a quick buck from a will, so do not want them vaccinated.
 
Rammy Blue said:
Apologies for what might seem a stupid question, and I did glance quick at the graphs a couple of pages back, but just in layman’s terms why would we have a 4th wave/surge in deaths to higher than the current peak when in theory all adults (or at least over 80% take up and herd immunity levels reached) should have been vaccinated by about summertime? Am I missing something? I thought the whole point of mass vaccination meant we either didn’t catch it or even if we did it’d be a mild illness?
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The effectiveness (<100%) and take up of the vaccine (<100%) plus unvaccinated children leave room for another wave, given how high the inherent R number is.

That's my understanding, but could be wrong.
 
16,9% of the population of the UK now had at least 1 dose = 11, 465, 210 first first doses.

Which is just under 21% of the adult population of the UK.

Or about 45% of the population over 50.

The target for vaccinations by May.
 
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