Coronavirus (2021) thread

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England 313 hospital deaths by age:

0 - 19 (1) 0.3%

40 - 59 (22) 7.0%

60 - 79 (125) 39.9%

80 PLUS (165) 52.8%


Nothing there different from how it has always been and if anything the older deaths have risen a little last few days to slightly above 50% not under.

However another under 20 dying which is the third or fourth in the past few days when these used to be rare even with higher numbers in total.

Too early to suggest it is a concern but that it is even noticeable means we should keep a eye on that number.

Midweek numbers will be higher when weekend deaths unable to be registered are added. That might tell us more.
 
England hospital deaths

Slight hint of a plateau. Too early to be too worried.

The five day totals since the 'peak on 19 Jan now are:

(787) - 721 - 708 - 690 - 666 - 675 - 691 - 658 - 618 - 650 - 596 - 453 - 524 - 534 - 532 - 534


The weekend lag and mid week catch up is a factor but that is looking quite flat and for the first time in a while today's numbers from the last two days are higher than the numbers added to the equivalent days a week ago. Not falling as they have been.

50 deaths recorded yesterday versus 43 last Sunday and 169 added from Saturday versus 166 last week from the Saturday.

Up to then they had been dropping markedly each day week to week as evident by the total but this week's total week to drop is also only 43 (about 12%). The equivalent fall last week was 253 - almost 3 times the percentage drop.

Hopefully just a statistical blip but worth flagging up in case not. Especially as NW cases seem to have been very flat all week as I noted last night - all 7 recent totals in the mid to late 2000s with just ups and downs of 200 or so a day at most.

Hopefully one of our true statisticians or number crunchers can judge better than I am qualified to do.
 
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ayrshire_blue said:
Cheers @MillionMilesAway and @Marvin, along with the figures Healdplace provided every day, this forum can be very helpful.
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I am not sure that I have been helpful. I am getting confused with the media coverage, and don't have time to drill down to the underlying reports. I guess these things are not black and white so when a report says that a vaccine reduces illness or the antibodies it generates neutralise virus, the question to ask is by how much.

So we have reports that the AZ vaccine is only 10% effective against the SA variant whilst PA media reports that the Pfizer vaccine neutralises it in the lab. I would have thought they would both have similar levels of efficacy as they both encode for the spike protein. I don't really see why they diverge in performance. Perhaps they don't.
 
Some hint too that cases are flatlined or even up a bit today. But there is often a weekend lag in testing data.

Sunday will suffer from the weather for testing too much like vaccinations do.
 
Northern Ireland data:

12 deaths - was 11 last week and 17 week before

296 cases - was 314 last week and 422 week before

20.7% positivity - was 23.1% last week and 26.2% week before

94 care home outbreaks - was 105 last week and 133 week before

7 day case total 2921 - was 3688 last week and 4921 week before

598 patients - was 735 last week and 828 week before

54 ventilated - was 56 last week and 50 week before.


Northern Ireland still showing good numbers slowly edging down all the time.
 
Here are the age split from Northern Ireland of those testing positive over past 7 days to now.

0 - 19 (368) 12.6%

20 - 39 (983) 33.7%

40 - 59 ( 972) 33.3%

60 - 79 (432) 14.8%

80 PLUS (162) 5.6%

That is certainly fewer over 60s noticeably testing positive as it was over 25% a week or two

The over 80s seem to have come down the most.
 
Healdplace said:
Here are the age split from Northern Ireland of those testing positive over past 7 days to now.

0 - 19 (368) 12.6%

20 - 39 (983) 33.7%

40 - 59 ( 972) 33.3%

60 - 79 (432) 14.8%

80 PLUS (162) 5.6%

That is certainly fewer over 60s noticeably testing positive as it was over 25% a week or two

The over 80s seem to have come down the most.
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That looks like extremely good news. Even though the testing numbers are relatively small you'd assume they are big enough to show a trend.
 
Professor Paul Moss of Haematology at the University of Birmingham told Sky News that the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines "are a little bit more effective against the South Africa variant" than the Oxford/AstraZeneca jab, and seem to "trigger even stronger antibody responses to vaccination" according to a recent small trial.

On a possible autumn booster vaccine to tackle new variants, he said: "There are two broad ideas at the moment, one is that we can increase our immunity with the current vaccines to make it even stronger, and the other approach is we introduce another vaccine which includes the South African mutation and we use that as a top up

from sky new channel
 
Former director of the World Health Organisation Dr Mukesh Kapila tells Sky News that the results of the latest trial in South Africa is a "little bit of a setback" but we "shouldn't be too downhearted about

"I think the minimum quality of an effective vaccine is that it stops getting you very sick and dying," says Dr Kapila. "Beyond that, if it reduces mild sickness and if it reduces transmission, that's a bonus.

"Now, I'm quite confident that as the vaccine science improves we will be able to develop vaccines and be progressively be more ambitious in terms of their objectives. In other words, not just stop people from getting very sick and dying, but also stop people from getting mild forms of illness and most importantly, also from stopping transmission. It is just going to take a bit of time.

"Meanwhile, I think there's a prospect that the current vaccination regime will make massive inroads into the spread that is taking place in both Britain and other countries

From sky news channel
 
kaz7 said:
Former director of the World Health Organisation Dr Mukesh Kapila tells Sky News that the results of the latest trial in South Africa is a "little bit of a setback" but we "shouldn't be too downhearted about

"I think the minimum quality of an effective vaccine is that it stops getting you very sick and dying," says Dr Kapila. "Beyond that, if it reduces mild sickness and if it reduces transmission, that's a bonus.

"Now, I'm quite confident that as the vaccine science improves we will be able to develop vaccines and be progressively be more ambitious in terms of their objectives. In other words, not just stop people from getting very sick and dying, but also stop people from getting mild forms of illness and most importantly, also from stopping transmission. It is just going to take a bit of time.

"Meanwhile, I think there's a prospect that the current vaccination regime will make massive inroads into the spread that is taking place in both Britain and other countries

From sky news channel
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I'll take any good news at the moment, it seems like as soon as we seem to be making progress some fly lands in the ointment. I am seriously starting to believe some of these Sage scientists want to keep the human race locked down forever.
 
paulchapo said:
I'll take any good news at the moment, it seems like as soon as we seem to be making progress some fly lands in the ointment. I am seriously starting to believe some of these Sage scientists want to keep the human race locked down forever.
Click to expand...

I was ready to like your post up until the last sentence mate. I don't think it's what they want at all, nothing like it, but we are where we are and it's best we listen to them. I do agree with the first part of your post though!
 
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