Coronavirus (2021) thread

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NeilYoungIsBack said:
Thanks, but I am actually looking for evidence that the Christmas Day get togethers caused the spike.

That is what Healdplace said happened. Not the days/weeks either side. That is what the reference to a Merry Little Christmas means.

The material you have offered actually undermines her argument if you think about it.
Click to expand...

Most people met family at Christmas as it was allowed. I know plenty who did so on more than one day to get to see everyone as it was 'allowed' to see family but bubbles meant you had to limit numbers. I have no idea if that really was the rule as like most I gave up trying to work out what rule applied when and how as they became ludicrously complex and ever changing.

Pretty much my entire family other than me met over Christmas. I chose to do so only via Zoom. Of the family there (about 10 in total in two visits to 'minimise risk') almost all of them caught Covid in the next week or so and are in those early January Stats for testing. Happily none needed hospitalisation. Though one is still not over it.

Not scientific evidence but imo the permission to mix at Christmas resulted in cases a week or so later just like these.

Because it was so virulent nearly all relatives there caught it at the same time as mixing only that once and had I chosen to go that day I would likely have been another.


Scientific proof? No. Reason to think this was not a one off? Yes. My family are not rule breakers who defy the restrictions. But they felt they had permission to stretch it a bit over Christmas as long as it was in proportion and deemed 'little'
 
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Regional Summary

North West fell by 271 to 1575 - only a few higher than the 1527 from a few days ago that was the lowest NW score since Christmas.

West Midlands however rose by 159 and at 1586 was just the highest region today.

East Midlands was down 54 to 1373 but the two Midlands regions and North West are still (just) clocking up the most cases

North East was down 218 to 563 .

In the South the numbers were all up

East by 56 to 1004

London by 337 - biggest rise today to 1391 and closest to NW as it has been all week

South East was up 16 to 1260 .

South West was 143 up to 682

So all in all good day for the NW. What about Greater Manchester?
 
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Greater Manchester Summary

Went down from 764 to 684 - so a fall of 80 and the second lowest in 2021.

However, 80 out of a 271 fall is well below par and as such the GM percentage of the NW total lost all its recent gains And rose from 41.4 to 43.4% in one day,

This is the second highest it has been in 3 months. Only 4 days ago was it slightly higher.

Most places fell -Manchester to its lowest in ages at 128. Nobody else over 100. Even Bolton was way down.

Trafford had a modestly bad day. Stockport a good one - second lowest numbers this year and enough to regain the lead jointly with Trafford on now identical pop score one day after Trafford took over.

Probably only going to last a day though.

Rochdale was lowest scorer in GM today.
 
Tim of the Oak said:
Cases climbing in Bury because 95% of them are the new, more transferable variant
Click to expand...

Actually Bury's weekly Pop last Wednesday was 210 and yesterday it was 211.

Week before it was was 228 and week before that it 284.

So it has actually flatlined lower than it was.

It has the odd high day but its daily cases in past ten days have been

66, 44, 72, 52, 59, 46, 66, 47, 61 and 79 today. Which is the highest in about 3 weeks but not the highest this year. So today's weekly pop has risen a bit to 214.

But I would not describe that as bad. Bolton has had a worse time of late than Bury - though these two do have the highest Pop Scores in GM right now.

And Tameside has risen more than Bury since the data used by the MEN - from 176 to 209.

That MEN piece is very misleading as it uses data from 12 February if you look VERY closely at its small print on the table. Which most will not.

The Pop scores I give here are from yesterdays data reported today. So nearly a week more up to date than this article.

The new variant might explain the Bury/Bolton rises. That is the important thing about the article not the worst numbers thing as that was then not now. Though today's number is high.
 
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Healdplace said:
Most people met family at Christmas as it was allowed. I know plenty who did so on more than one day to get to see everyone as it was 'allowed' to see family but bubbles meant you had to limit numbers. I have no idea if that really was the rule as like most I gave up trying to work out what rule applied when and how as they became ludicrously complex and ever changing.

Pretty much my entire family other than me met over Christmas. I chose to do so only via Zoom. Of the family there (about 10 in total in two visits to 'minimise risk') almost all of them caught Covid in the next week or so and are in those early January Stats for testing. Happily none needed hospitalisation. Though one is still not over it.

Not scientific evidence but imo the permission to mix at Christmas resulted in cases a week or so later just like these.

Because it was so virulent nearly all relatives there caught it at the same time as mixing only that once and had I chosen to go that day I would likely have been another.


Scientific proof? No. Reason to think this was not a one off? Yes. My family are not rule breakers who defy the restrictions. But they felt they had permission to stretch it a bit over Christmas as long as it was in proportion and deemed 'little'
Click to expand...
Funny that, I don't know anyone who met family over Christmas in Sheffield or Cambridge.
 
On the Christmas get togethers. Yes of course it will have led to some more cases. Just like the Boxing Day sales and the early Jan return to work probably did. One thing we don’t know is whether because families could meet on Xmas Day (in most of the U.K.) is whether this has led to a subsequent reduction in case numbers because relatives won’t meet up again until, say Easter.

It was poor of Boris to raise expectations of traditional Christmas parties etc but we don’t know how much lasting damage this caused.
 
Healdplace said:
Actually Bury's weekly Pop last Wednesday was 210 and yesterday it was 211.

Week before it was was 228 and week before that it 284.

So it has actually flatlined lower than it was.

It has the odd high day but its daily cases in past ten days have been

66, 44, 72, 52, 59, 46, 66, 47, 61 and 79 today. Which is the highest in about 3 weeks but not the highest this year. So today's weekly pop has risen a bit to 214.

But I would not describe that as bad. Bolton has had a worse time of late than Bury - though these two do have the highest Pop Scores in GM right now.

And Tameside has risen more than Bury since the data used by the MEN - from 176 to 209.

That MEN piece is very misleading as it uses data from 12 February if you look VERY closely at its small print on the table. Which most will not.

The Pop scores I give here are from yesterdays data reported today. So nearly a week more up to date than this article.

The new variant might explain the Bury/Bolton rises. That is the important thing about the article not the worst numbers thing as that was then not now. Though today's number is high.
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Yes I was more interested in the reference to the dominance of the new variant. Hopefully, Bury and Bolton can address this.
 
To pose a perhaps obvious question.
We have been in lockdown for weeks with strict restrictions and the vaccine rollout is going well and cases falling well.
Why is it then that certain areas In the UK have gone up?
Tameside for example up 7% in last week.
Where are they getting it from if there meant to be not mixing with anyone and staying in.
It just really puzzles me!
 
BLUEMATT23 said:
To pose a perhaps obvious question.
We have been in lockdown for weeks with strict restrictions and the vaccine rollout is going well and cases falling well.
Why is it then that certain areas In the UK have gone up?
Tameside for example up 7% in last week.
Where are they getting it from if there meant to be not mixing with anyone and staying in.
It just really puzzles me!
Click to expand...

Probably Tameside hospital.
 
GM Scoreboard:

684 down from 764, 43.4% of North West Total which fell by 271 to 1575. 2.0% rise on yesterday.

3 wks v 2 wks v last wk v Today:- 1203 v 1042 v 906 v 684 - A rather nice week to week drop.


Pop Score is cases across whole pandemic v 100,000 people - rises daily but lower the better.

Weekly Pop is same measure across last 7 days only. Can rise or fall depending on if more cases or less occur today v the same day last week.


Either way Up is bad, down is good.



Manchester 128 – down from 140. Total 48, 702. Weekly 994. Hurrah - finally Manchester into a three figure weekly total after many weeks above. Pop score up 23 to 8809. Weekly Pop down 2 to 180.

Bolton 79 - down from 140. Total cases 23, 500. Weekly 626. Pop score up 28 to 8173. Weekly Pop down 9 to 228.

Bury 79 - up from 61. Total cases 15, 843. Weekly 410. Pop score up 41 to 8295. Weekly Pop up 3 to 214.

Tameside 77 - up from 50. Total cases 16, 430. Weekly 460. Pop score up 27 to 7254. Weekly Pop down 3 to 203.

Salford 63 - down from 86. Total cases 21, 209. Weekly 535. Pop score up 24 to 8194. Weekly Pop down 9 to 207.

Stockport 56 - down from 74. Total cases 18, 876. Weekly 502. Pop score up 19 to 6433. Good day here that was enough to re-join Trafford on the same overall Pop score the day after falling behind them after so many months! Weekly Pop down 19 to 171. Big fall in week to week cases is why.

Oldham 53 up from 39. Total cases 21, 154. Weekly 396. Pop score up 23 to 8922. Weekly Pop down 6 to 167.

Wigan 53 down from 68. Total cases 26, 527. Weekly 559. Pop score up 16 to 8083. Lowest rise in GM today. Weekly Pop down 13 to170.

Trafford 49 - up from 37. Total cases 15, 268. Weekly 309. Lowest weekly total in GM. Pop score up 21 to 6433. Trafford eats loses 2 to Stockport so they are now level with best overall Pop! Weekly Pop down 6 to 131.

Rochdale 47 - down from 69. Total cases 19, 326. Weekly 399. Weekly Pop down 6 to 179. So despite having all the titles Rochdale pipped Trafford to lowest score today - but top 5 lowest scorers all within 9 of one another is good to see today. As it once used to be every day.



Pop Scores Today v 7 Days ago // Up/down over past week (lowest numbers best - numbers going up bad and going down good)


Trafford 131 v 154 // down 23

Oldham 167 v 208 // down 41

Wigan 170 v 186 // down 15

Stockport 171 v 201 // down 30

Rochdale 179 v 197 // down 18

Manchester 180 v 213 // down 33

Tameside 203 v 186 // UP 17

Salford 207 v 224 // down 17

Bury 214 v 214 // LEVEL

Bolton 228 v 283 // down 55


Only Tameside week to week going up a little. Bury not moving. And everyone else down - Bolton by the most in the week.
 
Tim of the Oak said:
On the Christmas get togethers. Yes of course it will have led to some more cases. Just like the Boxing Day sales and the early Jan return to work probably did. One thing we don’t know is whether because families could meet on Xmas Day (in most of the U.K.) is whether this has led to a subsequent reduction in case numbers because relatives won’t meet up again until, say Easter.

It was poor of Boris to raise expectations of traditional Christmas parties etc but we don’t know how much lasting damage this caused.
Click to expand...

The stats point to a post Xmas spike which seems to make people think that his recklessness did contribute.

www.bbc.co.uk

Covid cases 'up almost a third in week after Christmas'

Meanwhile almost half of people took advantage of Christmas bubble rules, a national survey suggests.
www.bbc.co.uk www.bbc.co.uk
 
BLUEMATT23 said:
To pose a perhaps obvious question.
We have been in lockdown for weeks with strict restrictions and the vaccine rollout is going well and cases falling well.
Why is it then that certain areas In the UK have gone up?
Tameside for example up 7% in last week.
Where are they getting it from if there meant to be not mixing with anyone and staying in.
It just really puzzles me!
Click to expand...

because they are mixing end of. That with more transmissible variants helps it spread. My recent experience is that once it gets in somewhere its like wildfire. Wife and daughter work at a shop - have been dead careful for a year but customers come in without masks etc.....anyway - a member of staff got it and within days it spread. I don't care how careful you are there will be tiny lapses. touch a surface and 20 mins later rub a tired eye and its in.....anyway 90% of the staff at their local shop have been off with it and the manager has been on a ventilator. Daughter got it and it ripped through the household too. I am afraid people still don't get it - 100% bio security is the only way to avoid it - we tried and probably did 99% for a year but let your guard down and......cases will drop as they did here - we all got it and over the last 21 days new cases have dropped to zero in our house.
 
Allegations that Sturgeon has cooked the vaccine books in terms of percentages of population vaccinated. I don’t have the full article but it might be an issue of interpretation.

 
Tim of the Oak said:
Allegations that Sturgeon has cooked the vaccine books in terms of percentages of population vaccinated. I don’t have the full article but it might be an inside of interpretation.

Click to expand...


Not really a surprise is it. God forbid she is seen to not be overseeing an operation as efficient as what is going on in England and Wales. Always comes across as a fraud, this is the sort of thing I’d expect her to do.
 
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