Coronavirus (2021) thread

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bluetonium said:
Thanks for posting the number again, helps me digest it. Very encouraging trends, then I see the crowds this week and my heart sinks.

BBC News - Covid: 'Don't blow it' says health secretary as thousands gather in sunshine
www.bbc.co.uk

Covid: 'Don't blow it' says health secretary as thousands gather in sunshine

Two parks close as people gather in open spaces in England to enjoy March's hottest day in 50 years.
www.bbc.co.uk www.bbc.co.uk

If anything can risk us getting some freedom back it's gathering like this or a catastrophic issue with vaccines.

That said, these gatherings will be a real acid test of whether the UK can cope until Autumn. If we don't see pockets of case rises following then it may suggest that our testing systems combined with vaccine and immunity are sufficient, at least over summer, to keep this thing mostly contained. But autumn may come as a great shock depending on how the virus mutates.
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Tbf I'm sure there was lots of this last year, people saying so and so event will cause a 2nd wave etc, all those photos of beaches when they re opened but it didn't have a big effect as far as I can remember.
 
Alright, @salfordbluetrue here's my summary:

You believe seasonal flu and COVID are comparable, despite clear scientific consensus across many different researchers that COVID is ~10x more deadly and ~2x more transmissible.

You can present no evidence for your beliefs.

As a result of your beliefs, you think the vaccine rollout should be very limited, despite clear evidence that would result in large numbers of deaths and hospitalisations. (Look at the IFR vs age graph I posted at the top).

You also believe that a proportion of data published on COVID is lies and propaganda, for reasons left unclear.

I will now happily leave you to your beliefs; I think conversation has come to a natural end.
 
MillionMilesAway said:
Fair points, but AZ are not traditionally vaccinemakers to my understanding - anything they have has been bought with bought companies. As such, I wouldn't have thought that they have the 3rd party network for megascale production.

My point wasn't very well made - I'm not really sure what AZ are bringing to this now, assuming the governmental support is funding the production sites. They aren't using AZ facilities that much - as with others, like the Catalent site in Italy (?) being used by someone or other - there are only so many 3rd parties available with expertise to make vaccines. Creating capacity and scaling it up is not easy.

I thought it was an obvious move when Sanofi agreed to make the Pfizer one (I think it's that one), after the Sanofi/Merck prospect collapsed. I think Merck are going to make one too, not sure which one offhand.
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The work truly begins once you've marketed a drug.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Alright, @salfordbluetrue here's my summary:

You believe seasonal flu and COVID are comparable, despite clear scientific consensus across many different researchers that COVID is ~10x more deadly and ~2x more transmissible.

You can present no evidence for your beliefs.

As a result of your beliefs, you think the vaccine rollout should be very limited, despite clear evidence that would result in large numbers of deaths and hospitalisations. (Look at the IFR vs age graph I posted at the top).

You also believe that a proportion of data published on COVID is lies and propaganda, for reasons left unclear.

I will now happily leave you to your beliefs; I think conversation has come to a natural end.
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My goodness you do chose when you want to ignore reasoning the roll out should be for those that need it, any doctor will tell you what happens when you take drugs that you do not need, stopping the roll out will not result in large scale deaths, that is just scaremongering, you should be ashamed of yourself, i am sorry that i could not convince you that the data you used was not using the same pathway
thanks for expressing your views, it is always better than lurking in the background
 
salfordbluetrue said:
The BBC first sounded out Covid passports even before the jab came out, when a report came out that 40% of health workers would not have the jab, Government ministers repeated it last week.
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So what? From what the government has said they are looking at it as they have to as it is something that has been raised. Seems to me Boris is inclined to be against the idea but accepts they might have to do something once everyone has been offered vaccination.
Doesn’t change the fact we might need them to do some things not least travel. If we are going to need them the government would have to be behind them or at least the NHS. In which case it would be negligent of the government not to look into the issue.
My guess is some countries, some airlines will require them and so the NHS will have to issue some kind of certificate. Exactly like they do now for other vaccinations.
The 40% of health workers not having the jab is nonsense anyway as well over 60% have already had it.
 
blueparrot said:
So what? From what the government has said they are looking at it as they have to as it is something that has been raised. Seems to me Boris is inclined to be against the idea but accepts they might have to do something once everyone has been offered vaccination.
Doesn’t change the fact we might need them to do some things not least travel. If we are going to need them the government would have to be behind them or at least the NHS. In which case it would be negligent of the government not to look into the issue.
My guess is some countries, some airlines will require them and so the NHS will have to issue some kind of certificate. Exactly like they do now for other vaccinations.
The 40% of health workers not having the jab is nonsense anyway as well over 60% have already had it.
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40% was the report, since then the workers have been threatened with their jobs, it is not just holidays that were mentioned restrictions on all movement was,
 
salfordbluetrue said:
40% was the report, since then the workers have been threatened with their jobs, it is not just holidays that were mentioned restrictions on all movement was,
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By who? Not by the government, and I’m not one to back Boris but nobody in government has suggested restricting all movement without a vaccine.
 
salfordbluetrue said:
My goodness you do chose when you want to ignore reasoning the roll out should be for those that need it, any doctor will tell you what happens when you take drugs that you do not need, stopping the roll out will not result in large scale deaths, that is just scaremongering, you should be ashamed of yourself, i am sorry that i could not convince you that the data you used was not using the same pathway
thanks for expressing your views, it is always better than lurking in the background
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Typical conspiracy theorist behaviour.
 
Breakdown of the WHO's Origin document.



May have started "in the months before December". using phylogenetic breakdowns they can estimate when the original virus appeared.

the pandemic ( 1st epidemic ) def started in Wuhan. 1st known confirmed case 8th Dec.

Wuhan market had a cluster of contamination with the same genomic breakdown. But there were different clusters starting up in Wuhan at the same time that had different genomic breakdown. this variance of genomic breakdowns allowed for the phylogenetic estimates. other markets were involved and "non market areas"

Closest match of Covid was a coronavisus in Bats and Pangolins, but this is not the direct decendant of Covid,

  • Introduction through Direct Zoonotic crossover is considered "possible-to-likely" transmission point.
  • Introduction through an intermediate host is considered "Likley-to-very-likley", I think this means animals being eaten.
  • introduction via frozen food from outside Wuhan is considered possible.
  • introduction via lab leakage considered to be extremely unlikely pathway.

More investigation needed and is ongoing.

lack of early samples and raw data is a significant issue. the WHO seems to be quite critical of lack of raw data and lack of full access to samples. WHO want more investigations from the Labs too.

Direct quote from WHO Director-General.

The team also visited several laboratories in Wuhan and considered the possibility that the virus entered the human population as a result of a laboratory incident.

However, I do not believe that this assessment was extensive enough. Further data and studies will be needed to reach more robust conclusions.

Although the team has concluded that a laboratory leak is the least likely hypothesis, this requires further investigation, potentially with additional missions involving specialist experts, which I am ready to deploy.

We will keep you informed as plans progress, and as always, we very much welcome your input.

Let me say clearly that as far as WHO is concerned all hypotheses remain on the table.
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03 March 2002 said:
Typical conspiracy theorist behaviour.
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Maybe but if you put your opinion forward then there is always a chance that someone can convince you otherwise, i will give the Roiubix his due he tried, it was not enough for me, perhaps i am too much of a skeptic but he was better than anyone else and i will take his points onboard.
 
salfordbluetrue said:
Maybe but if you put your opinion forward then there is always a chance that someone can convince you otherwise, i will give the Roiubix his due he tried, it was not enough for me, perhaps i am too much of a skeptic but he was better than anyone else and i will take his points onboard.
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You spread dangerous nonsense and should be chastised for it.

You show all the traits of a person who will hamper our path out of this. You're vocal in your disbelief and won't be reasoned with. @roubaixtuesday is consistently one of the most informed posters on here and provides excellent analysis where he/she see their skills fit best. They provide well-reasoned thoughts backed up with high quality sources and you dismiss them immediately because it doesn't fit with your agenda. You won't listen to reason because you're so convinced you've unearthed a great conspiracy but you simply haven't.
You make wayward statements like 'all doctors will tell you that' which have no foundation and no authority. Best I can tell you have no involvement with healthcare or drug development.

The paragraph you wrote on page 1900 should be framed in every museum in the land.
 
Regional Summary:

Good day for North West and Greater Manchester - sort of - though way up v North West region again despite a good fall.

East - down 29 to 251

London - down 66 to 402

South East - UP 8 to 363

South West - UP 24 to 184




East Midlands - UP 10 to 353

West Midlands - down 33 to 356



North East - UP 123 to 275

Yorkshire - UP 71 to 669

Yorkshire still the most cases as has been true for a week or two now.


And North West - down 109 - best fall of the day - to 463.

Greater Manchester fell by 55 of those 109 - but still increased its % split of NW to 62%

Nonetheless a good day.
 
It really, sincerely feels like we're close to beating this now, doesn't it? We've achieved all of these very high drops, with them coming down even quicker again seemingly, and that's just with one dose. Imagine how much of an impact all these second doses will start to have on the more vulnerable categories. I've felt the most optimistic i've felt in a long time this week. The sun being out, having a guilt-free catchup with my best mate outdoors and sitting in my mum and dad's garden on her birthday too. Just a lovely little taste of what I think will be a much better summer. I don't mind the slow unravelling. It makes sense, and it's going to work I think.
 
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salfordbluetrue said:
My goodness you do chose when you want to ignore reasoning the roll out should be for those that need it, any doctor will tell you what happens when you take drugs that you do not need, stopping the roll out will not result in large scale deaths, that is just scaremongering, you should be ashamed of yourself, i am sorry that i could not convince you that the data you used was not using the same pathway
thanks for expressing your views, it is always better than lurking in the background
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that makes zero logical sense. How do you figure that not vaccinating people for Covid will not result in people dying of Covid?

Vaccinate people and they have far better odds of surviving. don't vaccinate and they don't.
 
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