Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Greater Manchester Summary:


Total 287 - down from 342 yesterday and v 341 last wk and 423 wk before


Seven of the ten boroughs down week to week so will better weekly pop scores.

And seven (not the same 7 btw) down on yesterday.

Manchester top scores on just 54 - its lowest in a couple of weeks. With biggest week to week drop of 26.

Salford in second on 43 and with biggest week to week rise from 24.

Bury low scores on 15 - though beaten in lowest daily Pop rise by Stockport (because of greater population numbers so smaller pop rise resulting) as Stockport had just one more case at 16. Stockport also had a better week to week fall to regain the best weekly Pop score from Bury. And also cut 4 more off Trafford's overall Pop Score lead.

Trafford was down on day at 23 but that is up on last week's 17 so another weekly Pop rise here sadly.


The rest:- Oldham 21 (down wk to wk), Tameside 24 (down wk to wk), Bolton 26 (down wk to wk) Rochdale 28 (down wk to wk) and Wigan 37 (up wk to wk - but only by 1).
 
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M18CTID said:
Wow! Was 98 deaths last Wednesday. @Tim of the Oak that makes the 7 day rolling average of deaths 47 per day - down from 55 yesterday.
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Spot on mate. Great progress. Let's hope the progress is maintained and we aren't set back by yesterday's partying. Sergio deserved the 10K in the Etihad for his last game. Ideally it would be 55k
 
03 March 2002 said:
You spread dangerous nonsense and should be chastised for it.

You show all the traits of a person who will hamper our path out of this. You're vocal in your disbelief and won't be reasoned with. @roubaixtuesday is consistently one of the most informed posters on here and provides excellent analysis where he/she see their skills fit best. They provide well-reasoned thoughts backed up with high quality sources and you dismiss them immediately because it doesn't fit with your agenda. You won't listen to reason because you're so convinced you've unearthed a great conspiracy but you simply haven't.
You make wayward statements like 'all doctors will tell you that' which have no foundation and no authority. Best I can tell you have no involvement with healthcare or drug development.

The paragraph you wrote on page 1900 should be framed in every museum in the land.
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Well that is an awful lot of name calling, but at least you came out of your closet, would love to know your opinion on our path out of this, I am not a chemist so have nothing to gain, but do have a lot of doctors and nurses in the family.
 
twosips said:
It really, sincerely feels like we're close to beating this now, doesn't it? We've achieved all of these very high drops, with them coming down even quicker again seemingly, and that's just with one dose. Imagine how much of an impact all these second does will start to have on the more vulnerable categories. I've felt the most optimistic i've felt in a long time this week. The sun being out, having a guilt-free catchup with my best mate outdoors and sitting in my mum and dad's garden on her birthday too. Just a lovely little taste of what I think will be a much better summer. I don't mind the slow unravelling. It makes sense, and it's going to work I think.
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It does feel like it's all coming together.

I've been a bit worried by resilience of Yorkshire case numbers. Only moved to Sheffield in December, nothing open since then and starting to worry that we'll be placed in Tier 3 come 12th April !

But take a look at the detailed numbers by postcode, Daily summary | Coronavirus in the UK (data.gov.uk) and you see ONE admission to Sheffield hospitals on latest data and ZERO deaths so it looks as if cases aren't converting into problems.

Admissions are falling below one per acute (A & E) hospital now.
 
salfordbluetrue said:
Well that is an awful lot of name calling, but at least you came out of your closet, would love to know your opinion on our path out of this, I am not a chemist so have nothing to gain, but do have a lot of doctors and nurses in the family.
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Our path out of this is based on an observable, successful vaccination programme. Same as it has been with other major viruses in human history.

I work in oncology and respiratory drug development, therefore I am a chemist. I'm not sure why that's relevant though.

Do your doctors and nurses family members not believe in the effectiveness of vaccines too? If so that's a shame and an affront to the Hippocratic Oath.
 
grunge said:
that makes zero logical sense. How do you figure that not vaccinating people for Covid will not result in people dying of Covid?

Vaccinate people and they have far better odds of surviving. don't vaccinate and they don't.
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Because we are vaccinating people not at risk, vaccinating everybody will increase the probability of variants that put those at risk back in the firing line
 
salfordbluetrue said:
Because we are vaccinating people not at risk, vaccinating everybody will increase the probability of variants that put those at risk back in the firing line
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Everybody is at risk.
The more unvaccinated people there are, the more chance of variants developing.
You've got it totally the wrong way round, just like every other post of yours.
 
salfordbluetrue said:
Because we are vaccinating people not at risk, vaccinating everybody will increase the probability of variants that put those at risk back in the firing line
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Everyone is at risk, just different levels of risk.

in the last wave 40%+ of all ICU admissions were people under 50.

Edit:
Or Long Covid, 1 in 5 has long covid for more than 5 weeks, 1 in 10 for 12 weeks.. 60% have heart inflammation 3 months later. with more data being found by the day.

By letting this rip through younger generations we're likely creating a massive health crisis later.
 
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salfordbluetrue said:
Because we are vaccinating people not at risk, vaccinating everybody will increase the probability of variants that put those at risk back in the firing line
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???
This isn't the same as antibiotic resistance, vaccinating people gives their immune system a sneak peak of what to expect when/if they are exposed to the live virus, where on earth have you conjured this from?
If anything vaccination vastly lowers the titres in infected persons thus lowering the amount of replication and avoiding mutations.
 
For @salfordtrueblue

Email received today from a colleague who works in a European country where cases are currently rising

"It is with sadness that I need to inform you that Martin* our colleague has passed away."

Martin was, I believe 49 and without any risk factors. He died from COVID. 49 year olds do not die from flu.

He is survived by a wife and daughter. I didn't know him personally.

* I have changed the name for anonymity, but the mail is 100% genuine.
 
And finally for today, a snapshot on the world.

A while back I confidently wrote that we'd passed peak COVID.

Deaths worldwide are on the rise again, alas, but I still believe that worldwide we'll never see the previous peak in January this year, though it's impossible to be certain. Europe is pulling down the shutters again and vaccination is ramping up. South America generally, and Brazil specifically is really bad.

Roughly:

1/3 of current reported deaths are in Europe
1/4 are in Brazil alone, and still rising.
The rest are spread around; there is a big suspicion that African deaths are significantly undereported

1617208285336.png

Here's hoping we'll continue to get on top of this, globally.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
And finally for today, a snapshot on the world.

A while back I confidently wrote that we'd passed peak COVID.

Deaths worldwide are on the rise again, alas, but I still believe that worldwide we'll never see the previous peak in January this year, though it's impossible to be certain. Europe is pulling down the shutters again and vaccination is ramping up. South America generally, and Brazil specifically is really bad.

Roughly:

1/3 of current reported deaths are in Europe
1/4 are in Brazil alone, and still rising.
The rest are spread around; there is a big suspicion that African deaths are significantly undereported

View attachment 13461

Here's hoping we'll continue to get on top of this, globally.
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Would, in your opinion, the US line on that graph indicate that they haven’t had a taste of the UK/Kent variant as yet?

Their borders are quite strict so wondered if that’s the reason, no doubt some serious under reporting going on too in some states.
 
Hospital data today - full report later as usual - but a good fall today in England too. As other nations had already flagged up today but which has been missing in the past few days.

We are still just over 3000 patients after a fall today of 199. But hopefully by tomorrow it will be in the 2000s.

Every region had a decent share of the fall today. And SW is closing in on going sub 100 Covid patients.

NW fell below 600 today also happily.

Ventilators only falling slowly now and just missed going sub 500 in England but no region increased today and all but one fell for the first time in a week or so. NW finally gets into the 60s on ventilators from its peak of nearly 400 in January.
 
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roubaixtuesday said:
I've never seen that suggested, and it seems very unlikely.

Even if it were true, it's hard to see that it would provide a financial incentive for falsifying safety concerns, given that the German govt is paying through the nose for Pfizer jabs, and AZ are far cheaper - they'd still end up net out of pocket.

The whole "AZ safety concerns are a conspiracy by big pharma against cheap vaccines" just doesn't hold water for me.

The far simpler "they've had reports of reactions and are taking a conservative approach whilst investigating" fits all the evidence.
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No they've had reports and are investigating but the high up political appointments have decided its a good way to try and get off the hook of the impending 3rd wave Tusami that is starting to break over them.
If it wasn't they would ONLY have suspended the roll out to Women under 55 because its not happening to men.
Or indeed at all in the UK - 5 cases 1 death all men.
 
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Rammy Blue said:
Would, in your opinion, the US line on that graph indicate that they haven’t had a taste of the UK/Kent variant as yet?

Their borders are quite strict so wondered if that’s the reason, no doubt some serious under reporting going on too in some states.
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The US CDC and President Biden issued some pretty dire warnings earlier this week:

www.wsj.com

CDC Chief Issues Warning as Coronavirus Cases Rise

President Biden asked Americans to keep taking precautions, as the CDC director described a sense of “impending doom” over rising Covid-19 cases.
www.wsj.com www.wsj.com
 
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