Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Scotland data:

1 death - was 3 last week

273 cases - was 278 last week

1.3% positivity - was 1.3% last week

107 patients - UP 1 on day - was 119 last week

14 Ventilated - UP 1 on day - was 20 last week


Scotland - and other countries - starting to show a clear bottoming out and even slight rises in hospital data.

Inevitable I suppose as a balance between vaccine and opening out but we need to watch it does not accelerate from what right now is no problem as we are at very low number but could turn into one if we let it.
 
England hospital deaths

Same pattern here of a bottoming out at a very low number. Which may be the base level ewe can never get below perhaps?

25 deaths - with 4 from the NW. Four of the 25 are over a month old.

Was 26 with 5 from NW last week.

Previous weeks 42 with 8 NW, 31 with 8 NW, 69 with 8 NW and 77 with 15 NW.

Regions today:- East 4. London 4, Midlands 10, NE & Yorkshire 2, North West 4, South East 0, South West 1.

5 in Leicester by far the most today.

The NW 4 were one each in East Cheshire, Pennine Acute, Warrington and Wigan.
 
feedthegoat27 said:
I see Cambodia, a country that has effectively been Covid free from the outset, is now battling a surge in cases as the country takes lockdown/curfew measures to try and contain it. I think Thailand have also seen a sharp increase in cases.

A sombre reminder of the long road ahead and that the battle with Covid is far from over despite the great progress made on these shores.

View attachment 14742


Not sure I'd fancy 20 years in a Cambodian jail.

Cambodia accused of using Covid to edge towards ‘totalitarian dictatorship’ | Global development | The Guardian
Click to expand...

Yes Thailand is in some form of lockdown I believe.
 
Healdplace said:
Same pattern here of a bottoming out at a very low number. Which may be the base level ewe can never get below perhaps?
Click to expand...

Perhaps, but whilst "predictions are difficult, especially about the future"*, I'm very hopeful that given we're still more than double the deaths of last summer, and 5x the cases or so, this will come down a lot more yet as we now have vaccines.

* Attributed to Niels Bohr, but apparently a general Danish saying.
 
Northern Ireland data:

1 death - was 1 last week

116 cases - was 97 last week

10% positivity - was 7% last week

808 rolling weekly cases - was 790 yesterday and 780 last week

3 care home outbreaks - up 1 on day - was 5 last week

59 patients - down 12 in day - was 70 last week

6 ventilated - same as yesterday - was 5 last week.



Last 7 days Positive Cases by age group:

0 - 19 (234) 29.1%

20 - 39 (255) 31. 6%

40 - 59 (228) 28.3%

60- 79 (71) 8.8%

80 PLUS (18) 2.2%

So 89% of positive cases in past week are under 60 right now
 
Healdplace said:
Northern Ireland data:

1 death - was 1 last week

116 cases - was 97 last week

10% positivity - was 7% last week

808 rolling weekly cases - was 790 yesterday and 780 last week

3 care home outbreaks - up 1 on day - was 5 last week

59 patients - down 12 in day - was 70 last week

6 ventilated - same as yesterday - was 5 last week.



Last 7 days Positive Cases by age group:

0 - 19 (234) 29.1%

20 - 39 (255) 31. 6%

40 - 59 (228) 28.3%

60- 79 (71) 8.8%

80 PLUS (18) 2.2%
Click to expand...
May have asked before, if so apologies, does any other country break down the ages of those who have tested positive? Also given that the initial policy was to vaccinate all over 50's plus vulnerable it seems mad to have an age bracket as wide as 40-59. I wonder if the vast majority of those case were under 50?
 
Would love an experts take on the data from the Guardian from that institute Tony Blair is behind.

It breaks down the impact of hospitalisations and deaths depending on Vaccine type with very interesting results.

Based on around 37 million doses given the resulting cases and deaths are reportedly recorded AFTER at least 1 dose (and seemingly just rounded to nearest so approx).

AZ: 20.6 million first doses / 1 million second

321 positive cases - 1.49 per 100K population

22 deaths - 0.1 per 100 K population.



Pfizer: 11 million first doses / 4.4 million second

626 positive cases - 4.1% per 100K population

40 deaths - 0.3% per 100 K population


I imagine there are many caveats here. One I can think of is age distribution of the vaccines that may have varied. And whether length of time since vaccination is factored in

But should help the AZ vaccine gain some confidence back at least.
 
Healdplace said:
Would love an experts take on the data from the Guardian from that institute Tony Blair is behind.

It breaks down the impact of hospitalisations and deaths depending on Vaccine type with very interesting results.

Based on around 37 million doses given the resulting cases and deaths are reportedly recorded AFTER at least 1 dose (and seemingly just rounded to nearest so approx).

AZ: 20.6 million first doses / 1 million second

321 positive cases - 1.49 per 100K population

22 deaths - 0.1 per 100 K population.



Pfizer: 11 million first doses / 4.4 million second

626 positive cases - 4.1% per 100K population

40 deaths - 0.3% per 100 K population


I imagine there are many caveats here. One I can think of is age distribution of the vaccines that may have varied. And whether length of time since vaccination is factored in

But should help the AZ vaccine gain some confidence back at least.
Click to expand...
it doesnt really offer much without the age breakdowns, like you mention, and the co-morbidity instances of the recipients (which, again, are usually linked with age). tough one. dont see a significant result there without a lot more info.
 
I understand and agree.

But I presume these are reasonably low numbers either way and there will obviously have been a higher percentage of over 60s in those numbers given that the total indicates this is fairly recent cut off point and the over 60s were targeted first.
 
Eds said:
May have asked before, if so apologies, does any other country break down the ages of those who have tested positive? Also given that the initial policy was to vaccinate all over 50's plus vulnerable it seems mad to have an age bracket as wide as 40-59. I wonder if the vast majority of those case were under 50?
Click to expand...
Wales used to do - not sure if they still do - but their numbers are so low these days daily that they are not really very probative.

Same reason I do not post the age split of the hospital deaths. They are now fairly meaningless given the numbers where one or two cases can seem to change everything but may just be a one off event.

Scotland did and Ayrshire used to post them here regularly. But similar caveats apply I suspect.

The N Ireland weekly data is going to be similarly les useful soon but I have been tracking it in here every few days for months now so you can see how it has changed - from over 20% of the cases being in the upper age ranges and far fewer in the younger. The pattern ha changed in the past 4 months or so presumably through the impact of both the lockdown and the vaccines.
 
Last edited:
Healdplace said:
Would love an experts take on the data from the Guardian from that institute Tony Blair is behind.

It breaks down the impact of hospitalisations and deaths depending on Vaccine type with very interesting results.

Based on around 37 million doses given the resulting cases and deaths are reportedly recorded AFTER at least 1 dose (and seemingly just rounded to nearest so approx).

AZ: 20.6 million first doses / 1 million second

321 positive cases - 1.49 per 100K population

22 deaths - 0.1 per 100 K population.



Pfizer: 11 million first doses / 4.4 million second

626 positive cases - 4.1% per 100K population

40 deaths - 0.3% per 100 K population


I imagine there are many caveats here. One I can think of is age distribution of the vaccines that may have varied. And whether length of time since vaccination is factored in

But should help the AZ vaccine gain some confidence back at least.
Click to expand...

Interesting data, and here's the original source:

institute.global

Restoring Confidence in the Workhorse Covid-19 Vaccines

Restoring Confidence in the Workhorse Covid-19 Vaccines
institute.global

Blair's institute argues for releasing a full breakdown so it can be properly understood.

I think most of the deaths may be from COVID itself, as I read the paper.
 
Zoe App data today:

Cases up 32 to 1163 - been in the 1100's all week so far.

Ongoing symptomatic cases fall again (as they have daily for months) - by 834 to 23, 913.

These are for the UK remember. Not England.

The only four regions now in the mid pink zones are Scotland, Wales, North West and NE & Yorkshire.

All the regions further south are in the lowest tiers of infection rates.

The reverse was true a few weeks ago.
 
feedthegoat27 said:
I see Cambodia, a country that has effectively been Covid free from the outset, is now battling a surge in cases as the country takes lockdown/curfew measures to try and contain it. I think Thailand have also seen a sharp increase in cases.

A sombre reminder of the long road ahead and that the battle with Covid is far from over despite the great progress made on these shores.

View attachment 14742


Not sure I'd fancy 20 years in a Cambodian jail.

Cambodia accused of using Covid to edge towards ‘totalitarian dictatorship’ | Global development | The Guardian
Click to expand...
The new variants are so much more infectious. What used to work to contain it no longer does.
 
Another government scientist wants us to remain in lockdown. As only 23 people who had at least one jab 21+ days beforehand were subsequently hospitalised with Covid (and didn't die) it won't make much difference except to get us closer to herd immunity more quickly - unless a new varriant comes to the party of course.
www.bbc.co.uk

Covid: Government scientist warns of summer surge in cases

The UK is still in a "vulnerable situation", one of the country's vaccine advisers says.
www.bbc.co.uk www.bbc.co.uk
 
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