Coronavirus (2021) thread

[True_Blue69]

England hospital deaths 2 - with 0 NW

Sunday data is always low but this is the lowest reported for many months.

The only regions with cases were 1 in East (King's Lynn) and 1 in Midlands (Birmingham)

The deaths were 1 aged 40 - 59 and 1 aged 60 - 79.

Wk to wk:- 11 (3 NW) v 9 (1 NW) v 6 (0 NW) v 3 (1 NW) v 2 (0 NW) TODAY


The two were on 7 May and 6 May. The 13 on 5 May did not increase at day 4 and is the only day in May so far that has had total deaths allotted to that day above single figures even after add ons.

Roll on next week and the opening of indoor hospitality and fans back at football.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

 

[Rammy Blue]

Scary





One can easily now imagine how they had 18-20m deaths 100 years ago.

Horrific.

 

[splinter]

Unfortunately the news from Greater Manchester is not good. Particularly for Bolton which is worse than ever today.

Up to 91 cases - half the entire GM score of 186. And an even bigger week on week rise of 50 .

This is in fact MORE than the entire NW week on week rise of 47.

Single handed Bolton has turned the NW into the worst area in the UK and put Greater Manchester at risk of delaying opening up as this variant there is clearly a big problem.

The tardiness in spotting this needs to be investigated given how we saw it unfold in here well before it was reported.

Manchester on 26 in second has never been this far behind anyone else up top given its much larger population it should always have the most cases.

Bolton's Pop score today went up by 32 in one day!

As for the rest Rochdale on 15 and Stockport on 12 and surprisingly Bury on 11 were moderately high for a Sunday and up week to week respectively by 9, 6 and 3 - but nothing like the 50 of Bolton.

They are not doing well but as yet Stockport is not doing a Bolton just not as good as it was the last few weeks. It's Pop score rose today by 4 and Rochdale and Bury - both up by 6 - had worse days today than Stockport.

But none of them even close to that 32 from Bolton, which puts these numbers into perspective.

As you will surmise the North West (or rather GM practically single handed with a new recent high of 64% of all the cases in the NW - half of them in Bolton) - is why cases are rising.

I await the hospital data for the North West tomorrow and in coming few days with some trepidation as that will tell us if this is just a minor blip caused by localised cases that Zoe is suggesting are already fading (hope so) or whether we may be at the bottom looking up.

If Zoe is right those Stockport numbers will climb in coming days too. Elise will sadly have a few more concerns than probably losing the council leadership to the Lib Dems if so.

The next week will tell us a lot about where the region and GM in particular is going.

Fingers crossed it is a flash in the pan and this time next week City will have finally clinched that title and these numbers will be looking better too.

So could the government prevent GM from opening up 17th

 

[artfuldodger]

So could the government prevent GM from opening up 17th

I thought the governments plan was everyone/everywhere move forward together or not at all. I was reading Healdplace post as meaning Greater Manchester’s situation could delay everyone opening up.

 

[splinter]

I thought the governments plan was everyone/everywhere move forward together or not at all. I was reading Healdplace post as meaning Greater Manchester’s situation could delay everyone opening up.

Imagine the backlash towards GM if that was to happen

 

[Healdplace]

Hopefully Zoe will be right and Bolton will start to go down and we are sensibly taking measures to stop any spread.

Numbers were bound to rise once we started relaxing. That will have been factored in.

Bolton is an outbreak that should have been acted upon earlier as the clues were there but it is being addressed now and things may well look much better in a week.

We just have to stop it from spreading to other parts of GM but effective testing. Which is supposed to be occurring.

 

[splinter]

The latest video just gone up from dr John Campbell..he mentions the surge testing in Bolton. He says british nationals visiting india Pakistan Bangladesh have brought variant back. Says the UK government taken a big risk allowing people back without hotel quarantine..we're all in it together folks.

 

[splinter]

Hopefully Zoe will be right and Bolton will start to go down and we are sensibly taking measures to stop any spread.

Numbers were bound to rise once we started relaxing. That will have been factored in.

Bolton is an outbreak that should have been acted upon earlier as the clues were there but it is being addressed now and things may well look much better in a week.

We just have to stop it from spreading to other parts of GM but effective testing. Which is supposed to be occurring.

It'll be spreading

 

[splinter]

Glad I don't live nowhere near Bolton

 

[BlueAnorak]

Scary





One can easily now imagine how they had 18-20m deaths 100 years ago.

Horrific

 

[BlueAnorak]

The government needs to change tack and as well as surge testing around clusters, it needs to vaccinate the youth and ethic older people who didn't get vaccinated in the same areas.

 

[splinter]

The government needs to change tack and as well as surge testing around clusters, it needs to vaccinate the youth and ethic older people who didn't get vaccinated in the same areas.

They Don't want the vaccine though..

 

[Healdplace]

Greater Manchester Cases


186 cases today - down 11 on yesterday. From 292 North West cases (a fall of 37 from yesterday).

And up 50 from 136 last Sunday. Biggest week to week rise in some time. NW rise wk to wk was 47. So this was more than all of it. Well over par for GM. All 50 came from you know where.




Bolton - a bad day up again by 23 to 91- most here in several weeks and up 50 (more than the entire total NW weekly rise of 47). Pop score rise today was 32 - easily the most by any GM borough today. No sign of the oe App fall as yet. Hopefully tomorrow.


Manchester down 7 to 26 which is down 2 from last week. Never seen Manchester have someone else this far above them at the top. Should not happen given the population sizes.

Rochdale takes third place yet again but falling by 3 on 15 - which is up 6 week to week.

Stockport falls just 1 to 12 which is up 6 week to week. Not close to being at Bolton levels in any sense but not disproving Zoe trends as it has edged up clearly week to week with only one single figure day this week after five out of seven last week and the other two then being 10 and 11.

Bury are a bit of a surprise so high up here after days of being the best. But up by 8 to 11 - which is up 3 more than last week

Which means the other 5 boroughs are all in single figures and still doing fine.


Salford down by 8 to 7 which is down 2 on last wk.

Wigan down 7 to 7 - which is down 2 wk to wk.

Tameside down 7 to 6 which is up 2 on last week.

Trafford down 4 to 6 - though down 9 wk to wk. Doing much better here now. Picking up Pop score points again on Stockport.


And top of the tree today is:-


Oldham down 5 to 5 also - also 2 down wk to wk







Weekly total cases:-

Bolton now 440 weekly cases more than double Manchester and quadruple everywhere else. Rochdale goes back over 100 and Stockport looks to be heading that way after being second to Bury a week ago. Despite today Bury still easily in the lead.


Bury 45, Tameside 58, Oldham 70, Trafford 72, Salford 80. Wigan 84, Stockport 87, Rochdale 105, Manchester 209, Bolton 440.

 

[Healdplace]

GM Weekly Pop Data after today:~

Borough / Pop Today / 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.



Bolton 153 / 75/ UP 78 Testing positive 9.3%

Rochdale 47 / 35 / UP 12 Testing positive 9.7%

Manchester 38 / 35 / UP 3 Testing positive 9.7%

Trafford 31 / 48 / DOWN 17 Testing positive 7.0 %

Salford 31 / 40 / DOWN 9 Testing positive 9.0%

Oldham 30 / 31 DOWN 1 Testing positive 9.8%

Stockport 30 / 20 / UP 10 Testing positive 7.2%

Wigan 26 / 23 / UP 3 Testing positive 8.9%

Tameside 25 / 25 LEVEL Testing positive 8.2

Bury 23 / 23/ LEVEL Testing positive 9.1%



Bolton pulling into the stratosphere now sitting on over 100 weekly Pop score points more than every other borough. Cannot think of a time that was ever true in GM before. A weekly Pop Score rise of 78 is almost unheard of since January.

But Stockport as Zoe App predicted is creeping up the ranks and has left the 20s where it has been for over a month - getting down to 18 at one point.

Trouble seems to be brewing here as Zoe predicts. Hopefully it is being tracked. The Gov UK data shows that the rise in cases in Stockport are coming from the under 60s in the past week. Have risen about 30% and are at 5 times the level of the over 60s - still under 8% of all cases. This is in itself good.

In past few days aside from Bolton rising as it has Stockport and Rochdale have steadily risen day by day too. Manchester and Wigan also but to a smaller degree.

Oldham has stayed fairly stable as has Bury - though edging downwards and now best in GM again.

But Trafford has been the polar opposite of Bolton being the borough making the most improvement and dropping from up top to about to join the pack of the lowest scorers.


Report

 

[Healdplace]

Looking further at the Gov UK data for Stockport it shows that only 3 of the 67 cases detected in the first few days of May were aged over 59.

The number was 16 out of 173 in the same period in early May in Bolton. Which looks a little higher but still under 10%.

The vaccination rate between the two towns might be a factor.

As with everywhere else most of the cases are now coming from people under 40.

This was early in the Bolton uptick and before really Stockport has risen much. Will keep my eye on it as it progresses as this daily data is, as usual, a few days behind.

 

[Tonster]

The government needs to change tack and as well as surge testing around clusters, it needs to vaccinate the youth and ethic older people who didn't get vaccinated in the same areas.

The youth (18+) will be vaccinated once it’s their turn. As for ethnic older people what do you propose, tieing them down while you jab em?

 

[paulchapo]

The latest video just gone up from dr John Campbell..he mentions the surge testing in Bolton. He says british nationals visiting india Pakistan Bangladesh have brought variant back. Says the UK government taken a big risk allowing people back without hotel quarantine..we're all in it together folks.

Have I missed something? I thought all flights out of the country for non essential travel was banned, so how come all these people are just waltzing backwards and forwards to covid hotspots with no control?

 

[Tonster]

Have I missed something? I thought all flights out of the country for non essential travel was banned, so how come all these people are just waltzing backwards and forwards to covid hotspots with no control?

They will be making ‘essential’ journeys. The list of reasons for essential journeys is endless.

 

[shemnel]

The latest video just gone up from dr John Campbell..he mentions the surge testing in Bolton. He says british nationals visiting india Pakistan Bangladesh have brought variant back. Says the UK government taken a big risk allowing people back without hotel quarantine..we're all in it together folks.

I haven't seen the video - how does he know specifically people from those places traveled and returned with it? As opposed to it being transmitted domestically from the various known domestic hotspots? Was everyone tested or something?

Edit: don't worry I just read a news piece that says PHE estimate 50% of cases come from travel or contact with a traveler and the rest are domestic sourced