Coronavirus (2021) thread

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North West still top region - though it falls by 51 to 329. That is up 79 on last Saturday.


Greater Manchester falls day to day by just 11 of that 51.

But rises week to week by 66 of that 79 increase. So as you can see GM is driving the North West problems.

Bolton is actually a few down on 68 but well up on last week.

Manchester too down day to day on 33 but up significantly week to week.

In fact most places are.

Only Bury is in single figures on just 3 - well ahead of the rest - and even they are up week to week.

The other seven boroughs in the teens. And fairly level with expectations. Rochdale third most on 18.

Will leave it at that today.

Enjoy the match. And do not party too hard afterward!!!
 
Would it be fair to say at this stage, that signs of improvement in Bolton might be better good news than the rise in cases in Stockport or elsewhere is negative? As in, the good outweighing the bad with rises in cases almost expected as we open up but importantly the variant situation doesn't completely take off?

Don't know if that even makes sense. Sounds right in my own head ha. Anyway, come on City!
 
Healdplace said:
My guess is the first one primes the immune system and the second just tops it up, So it is fairly reasonable to presume your body will react to the first jab - which is new and asking it to do things to go on alert - more than the second - which is in effect just like topping up the water tank in the fridge so it lasts a bit longer.

First time might take two or three jugs of water to fill from empty - so more effort - the second only one to top up the partly filled tank - so less strain.
Click to expand...
Nice analogy
 
US vaccination numbers dropping as they pass 46%. It would appear that many of the remaing 54% of the population are not keen.
 
Greater Manchester Cases


197 cases today - down 11 on yesterday. From 329 North West cases (a fall of 51 from yesterday).

And up 66 from 131 last Saturday. Biggest week to week rise in some time. NW rise wk to wk was 79. So this was most of it. Well over par for GM.




Bolton - had a slightly better day on 68 - that is down 7 on yesterday but up 36 week to week. Pop score rise today 'only' 23 - but again easily the most by any GM borough today. In fact nobody else was more than 8. So Bolton doing 3 times as badly as the second worst in GM (Rochdale) and 20 times as badly as the best (Bury) which rose by just over 1.


Manchester down 6 to 33 but up 14 from last week. So bad for the Pop Score.

Rochdale takes third place once again (and second worst Pop Score to Bolton) falling by 4 on 18 - which is up 4 week to week.

Salford up by 5 to 15 which is up 3 on last wk.

Wigan up 2 to 14 - which is down 1 wk to wk.

Stockport up 5 to 13 which is up 2 week to week. No real sign of the Zoe App rise in Stockport but it is a little so we will see.

Tameside up 4 to do reach 13 which is up 9 on last week. Hurting the Pop Score.

Trafford down 2 to 10 - though down 6 wk to wk. So doing better say by day now.

Oldham down 7 to 10 also - also up 5 wk to wk


And who else up top and the only borough in single figures today:- Bolton's neighbour borough unaffected it seems happily.

Bury down 1 to 3 - which rather maddeningly is very good but still up 1 on last week



Weekly total cases:-

Bolton almost 400 weekly cases nearly double Manchester. The other eight under 100. Just as most have been rising in past few days. Bury easily in the lead.


Bury 42, Tameside 56, Oldham 72, Stockport 81, Trafford 81. Salford 85, Wigan 86, Rochdale 99, Manchester 211, Bolton 390.
 
GM Weekly Pop Data after today:~

Borough / Pop Today / 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.



Bolton 136 / 66 / UP 70 Testing positive 9.2%

Rochdale 45 / 33 / UP 12 Testing positive 9.7%

Manchester 38 / 34 / UP 4 Testing positive 9.7%

Trafford 34 / 46 / DOWN 12 Testing positive 7.0 %

Salford 32 / 44 / DOWN 12 Testing positive 9.0%

Oldham 30 / 33 DOWN 3 Testing positive 9.8%

Stockport 28 / 20 / UP 8 Testing positive 7.2%

Wigan 27 / 22 / UP 5 Testing positive 8.9%

Tameside 25 / 27 DOWN 2 Testing positive 8.2

Bury 21 / 20 / UP 1 Testing positive 9.1%



Bolton pulling into the stratosphere 91 ahead of anyone else. Long time since I have posted a Weekly Pop Score rising by 70 as it is now. But Stockport as Zoe App predicted is slightly creeping up. Though not yet in any trouble.

In past few days aside from Bolton rising as it has Stockport and Rochdale have steadily risen day by day too. Manchester and Wigan also but to a smaller degree.

Oldham has stayed fairly stable as has Bury - though edging downwards and now best in GM again.

Salford is falling steadily. Tameside fell but is now going up.

But Trafford has been the polar opposite of Bolton being the borough making the most improvement and dropping from up top to about to join the pack of the lowest scorers.
 
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ayrshire_blue said:
Would it be fair to say at this stage, that signs of improvement in Bolton might be better good news than the rise in cases in Stockport or elsewhere is negative? As in, the good outweighing the bad with rises in cases almost expected as we open up but importantly the variant situation doesn't completely take off?

Don't know if that even makes sense. Sounds right in my own head ha. Anyway, come on City!
Click to expand...
The thing to watch with Bolton is the weekly Pop Score as the table above (that I post daily) shows.

It is still going up and the gap between them and second is growing.

Once that starts to reduce and the score itself fall THAT will be progress.

Stockport numbers are not at present alarming in the actual data. Like most of GM they are up a tad. But the self reported cases on Zoe App are not as yet translating into a jump up in cases there. If we start seeing numbers in the 20s or 30s for Stockport that will be.

The weekly cases is another thing to watch. If they stay under 100 for anywhere they are not in trouble.
 
They should use the vaccine in Bolton and surrounding areas, or any area where there is community transmission of this variant as it appears to be more transmissible.
 
Looking at the figures yesterday with 40 clusters of new variant (non Kent) Covid around the country that are the cause of a large number of daily cases i would say the government will have to chance strategy PDQ.
Around the clusters, surge testing (already in play) needs to be accompanied with mass vaccination of ethnic refusnics (with accompanying ethic based publicity drive) and younger people.
 
Wales data:

THIS IS FOR FRIDAY ONLY (SAT & SUN DATA IN ONE GO TOMORROW AS NOW USUAL HERE)

0 deaths - was 0 last week

54 cases - was 79 last week

0.3% positivity - was 0.5% last week

Wales seems to be down to Israel like levels in numbers now which is very encouraging as I think they are possibly the second or third most vaccinated nation after Israel which is close to fully vaccinated and out of nearly all restrictions.

On todays figures at least one dose has been given to 61% of the entire Welsh population and about 72% of the adult population (over 16).

The entire UK adult population vaccinated as of last night were at 66.8% who have had at least one dose. And 32.7% have had both.
 
Less good news from the Zoe App which has had its biggest rises in months today.

Symptomatic cases are up for the third day and are accelerating - from 15, 275 yesterday to 16, 011

And predicted cases have risen again for about the sixth day running by the largest recent amount from 1148 to 1333.

This is a little disconcerting though probably inevitable as we ease up.

The hospital data really has to be watched carefully now as that has not been doing so well either for the past few days with some rises in England regions especially after months of falls.

What happens there over the weekend and into the first half of next week will tell us if these rising cases are leading to an uptick in cases requiring hospitalisation. Admission data has hinted they might be. But also that they tend not to stay long so are not going up by very much right now - possibly as the vaccines are reducing severe disease.

I agree with the post above that we should target areas where fast spreading variants are around with a mobile vaccination task force to try to increase uptake on those groups from which this uptick is coming.

Especially now we have the first evidence published seeming to show the vaccines cut out not just symptomatic and more severe illness from Covid in those who have them but also stem transmission to others around them.
 
Another concern to report is that Stockport has now officially become an area of high infection on the Zoe App. Alongside Chorley. These are the only two in the NW.

However, places like Burnley and Hyndburn do not appear because Zoe by its nature primarily attracts affluent younger people using apps and not to the same degree older working class ethnic families in large estates. Obviously these are big generalisations but it is why they do not have enough people using the app in places like East Lancashire to make meaningful predictions they advise to explain why this was missed.

Stockport has been heading towards concern in real terms with reported cases escalating - though not yet showing up on the official case data each evening as being the problem Zoe is flagging here.

Bolton has now fallen out of the numbers that signify a problem and Stockport has rapidly overtaken it as I have noted all week there seemed a threat it was doing based on Zoe data. Though not yet actual cases. Yesterday for instance the daily Pop Score rise was 5 for Stockport and 23 for Bolton. Not remotely reflecting the Zoe app - though a little high for Stockport on current numbers and lower than the last couple of days for Bolton. So the right trend at least.


Here are the GM boroughs based on Zoe reported data:-

Number of Active cases / Active cases per million population estimated from the first data (all versus yesterday)



BOLTON 30 / 106 - huge drop from 299 / 1054

STOCKPORT 409 / 1414 - well up from 282 / 978

Will have to watch the Stockport real case data with trepidation now and hope - if it translates from Zoe to real world - that the people in charge do not take a week to see it happen. As by then GM as a whole may well be in trouble as there are a few hints might be happening.

BURY 18 / 96 - was 12 / 66 (rising a bit too)

MANCHESTER 169 / 310 - was 224 / 411 (by contrast doing better)

OLDHAM 146 / 624 - was 11 / 45 (an even more concerning rapid rise)

ROCHDALE 17 / 80 - was 93 - 60 (seems to be better than current actual cases suggest)

SALFORD 136 / 538 - was 24 / 97 (another big rise)

TAMESIDE 168 / 752 - was 118 / 529 (also up a fair bit)

TRAFFORD 55 / 235 /- was 36 / 153 (up a little)

WIGAN 95 / 294 / - was 62 / 191 (up a little)


One caveat to apply. With only 16,000 or so reports around the UK number working from at Zoe are now low and the odd extra case seems to cause big jumps in their estimations.

So I would only regard these numbers as an up/down trend not actually meaningful in raw number terms.

We can say quite a lot of GM is going up - with Stockport as a large borough showing up first as a notable problem - but others could turn like this quite quickly.

Yet Bolton is going the other way and has suddenly fallen dramatically.

So - whilst these are guidelines to events - they are really showing predictions not actuality as the day to day test numbers do.

Zoe is not Nostradamus but is to a degree making educated guesses.

Time will tell how well educated.
 
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England hospital deaths 2 - with 0 NW

Sunday data is always low but this is the lowest reported for many months.

The only regions with cases were 1 in East (King's Lynn) and 1 in Midlands (Birmingham)

The deaths were 1 aged 40 - 59 and 1 aged 60 - 79.

Wk to wk:- 11 (3 NW) v 9 (1 NW) v 6 (0 NW) v 3 (1 NW) v 2 (0 NW) TODAY


The two were on 7 May and 6 May. The 13 on 5 May did not increase at day 4 and is the only day in May so far that has had total deaths allotted to that day above single figures even after add ons.
 
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UK data from Gov uk

All settings deaths 2

Cases 1770 - down 277 on yesterday.

Up from 1671 last Sunday and from 1712 the week before that.

18 April on 1882 was last Sunday it was higher than today.
 
Only 4 of the 200 cases in Scotland are in people aged 65+.

45-64 age group has 36

25-44 is 76
15-24 is 38
0-15 is 43

Still good signs regarding the vaccination programme showing success.
 
Unfortunately the news from Greater Manchester is not good. Particularly for Bolton which is worse than ever today.

Up to 91 cases - half the entire GM score of 186. And an even bigger week on week rise of 50 .

This is in fact MORE than the entire NW week on week rise of 47.

Single handed Bolton has turned the NW into the worst area in the UK and put Greater Manchester at risk of delaying opening up as this variant there is clearly a big problem.

The tardiness in spotting this needs to be investigated given how we saw it unfold in here well before it was reported.

Manchester on 26 in second has never been this far behind anyone else up top given its much larger population it should always have the most cases.

Bolton's Pop score today went up by 32 in one day!

As for the rest Rochdale on 15 and Stockport on 12 and surprisingly Bury on 11 were moderately high for a Sunday and up week to week respectively by 9, 6 and 3 - but nothing like the 50 of Bolton.

They are not doing well but as yet Stockport is not doing a Bolton just not as good as it was the last few weeks. It's Pop score rose today by 4 and Rochdale and Bury - both up by 6 - had worse days today than Stockport.

But none of them even close to that 32 from Bolton, which puts these numbers into perspective.

As you will surmise the North West (or rather GM practically single handed with a new recent high of 64% of all the cases in the NW - half of them in Bolton) - is why cases are rising.

I await the hospital data for the North West tomorrow and in coming few days with some trepidation as that will tell us if this is just a minor blip caused by localised cases that Zoe is suggesting are already fading (hope so) or whether we may be at the bottom looking up.

If Zoe is right those Stockport numbers will climb in coming days too. Elise will sadly have a few more concerns than probably losing the council leadership to the Lib Dems if so.

The next week will tell us a lot about where the region and GM in particular is going.

Fingers crossed it is a flash in the pan and this time next week City will have finally clinched that title and these numbers will be looking better too.
 
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