Coronavirus (2021) thread

[roubaixtuesday]

For the people arguing for very rapid removal of restrictions. There's a piece of work being done by SAGE on what the impact of vaccination and restrictions (NPIs in the jargon)

Here's a couple of scenarios from one of the academic groups inputting. They make reasonable assumptions on vaccine effectiveness and takeup.

The grey shading is the level of NPIs. Top graph shows them gradually removed until freedom in Sept, the lower only finally removes at the end of the year. The three lines are for different speeds of the vaccine rollout.

These are not predictions, but give a sense as to what the future might look like.
You can see that removing all restrictions by Sept gives a surge of deaths double our recent peak. Slowing that to end of year halves the peak.

It's this sort of understanding of the dangers of relaxing too soon which drives the caution of relaxing too quickly.

 

[BLUEMATT23]

No we wouldn’t though we may have locked down quicker and saved lives if we’d listened better to SAGE.

Sorry but I disagree - several of the calculations from SAGE have been proved too be inaccurate over the past few months.
I think they have had a complete adverse effect on the pandemic if I am honest, you should see some of the comments about them in some of the news report comments. Personally I think they have used over exaggerated calculations and wheeled out several times doomsday predictions that have created scaremongering.

 

[Healdplace]

Cheshire and Merseyside percentage vaccination data as above is:

Over 80 is 89.1% with 13.7 % having had both jabs.

75 - 79 is at 85.1%

70 - 74 at 40.3%

 

[roubaixtuesday]

For the people arguing for very rapid removal of restrictions. There's a piece of work being done by SAGE on what the impact of vaccination and restrictions (NPIs in the jargon)

Here's a couple of scenarios from one of the academic groups inputting. They make reasonable assumptions on vaccine effectiveness and takeup.

The grey shading is the level of NPIs. Top graph shows them gradually removed until freedom in Sept, the lower only finally removes at the end of the year. The three lines are for different speeds of the vaccine rollout.

These are not predictions, but give a sense as to what the future might look like. View attachment 9754
You can see that removing all restrictions by Sept gives a surge of deaths double our recent peak. Slowing that to end of year halves the peak.

It's this sort of understanding of the dangers of relaxing too soon which drives the caution of relaxing too quickly.

Report: https://t.co/XM2mZMUVz3

 

[PannickAtTheDisco]

For the people arguing for very rapid removal of restrictions. There's a piece of work being done by SAGE on what the impact of vaccination and restrictions (NPIs in the jargon)

Here's a couple of scenarios from one of the academic groups inputting. They make reasonable assumptions on vaccine effectiveness and takeup.

The grey shading is the level of NPIs. Top graph shows them gradually removed until freedom in Sept, the lower only finally removes at the end of the year. The three lines are for different speeds of the vaccine rollout.

These are not predictions, but give a sense as to what the future might look like. View attachment 9754
You can see that removing all restrictions by Sept gives a surge of deaths double our recent peak. Slowing that to end of year halves the peak.

It's this sort of understanding of the dangers of relaxing too soon which drives the caution of relaxing too quickly.

we won't be removing all restrictions this year, but we should be operating lower tiers with some level of mixing and socialisation with testing focus then driven on local outbreaks and testing akin to that done with the South African variant.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Sorry but I disagree - several of the calculations from SAGE have been proved too be inaccurate over the past few months.
I think they have had a complete adverse effect on the pandemic if I am honest, you should see some of the comments about them in some of the news report comments. Personally I think they have used over exaggerated calculations and wheeled out several times doomsday predictions that have created scaremongering.

They were last roundly ridiculed for protecting daily deaths too high.

The number at issue? 200 daily.

Remind me how doom-mongering that turned out.

Covid-19: UK could face 50,000 cases a day by October without action - Vallance

"Speed" and "action" are required to halt the rise in cases, the UK's chief scientific adviser warns.

www.google.com

 

[Centurions]

For the people arguing for very rapid removal of restrictions. There's a piece of work being done by SAGE on what the impact of vaccination and restrictions (NPIs in the jargon)

Here's a couple of scenarios from one of the academic groups inputting. They make reasonable assumptions on vaccine effectiveness and takeup.

The grey shading is the level of NPIs. Top graph shows them gradually removed until freedom in Sept, the lower only finally removes at the end of the year. The three lines are for different speeds of the vaccine rollout.

These are not predictions, but give a sense as to what the future might look like. View attachment 9754
You can see that removing all restrictions by Sept gives a surge of deaths double our recent peak. Slowing that to end of year halves the peak.

It's this sort of understanding of the dangers of relaxing too soon which drives the caution of relaxing too quickly.

I've been telling all and sundry for awhile that masks & social distancing will still be with us at the end of this year at least. I've seen nothing that has even come close to changing my mind yet.

I know I'll fight tooth and nail when work start bleating on about coming back to the office again (and yes, they started talking about it last year sometime but then went quite).

 

[blueparrot]

For the people arguing for very rapid removal of restrictions. There's a piece of work being done by SAGE on what the impact of vaccination and restrictions (NPIs in the jargon)

Here's a couple of scenarios from one of the academic groups inputting. They make reasonable assumptions on vaccine effectiveness and takeup.

The grey shading is the level of NPIs. Top graph shows them gradually removed until freedom in Sept, the lower only finally removes at the end of the year. The three lines are for different speeds of the vaccine rollout.

These are not predictions, but give a sense as to what the future might look like. View attachment 9754
You can see that removing all restrictions by Sept gives a surge of deaths double our recent peak. Slowing that to end of year halves the peak.

It's this sort of understanding of the dangers of relaxing too soon which drives the caution of relaxing too quickly.

I’m probably misunderstanding this but why on the lower graph does the slower rate vaccine green have a lower death rate than the higher rate purple ?

 

[BlueAnorak]

That's the wife with her appointment for the first jag on the 14th.

This is the sort of injection I want XF 3.0 Sport. Lovely motor.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

we won't be removing all restrictions this year, but we should be operating lower tiers with some level of mixing and socialisation with testing focus then driven on local outbreaks and testing akin to that done with the South African variant.

Some people want all restrictions removed by May.

I wanted to illustrate why scientific opinion is against that.