It’s hardly out of control, less than 3k cases in total out of 66 million people.
Let’s hope so.They did suggest that was a factor in general but did not specify with these 3 patients. Especially if they are only just admitted. They might be home tomorrow.
Possible projections based on Van Taam's 20-30% more transmissible comment. Reminder that this is a possible projection only and is factor dependant.
Interesting.
At some point don't we have to accept that covid risk/death falls in step with flu/risk death? I mean flu was suppressed to nearly nought this winter, which might account for 8 to 20k deaths, or 100 a day over a six month season (not many even pay it any mind!). I have no idea what covid will do next winter but I suspect it will be kicking about doing its thing.
I don't advocate letting rip but I do want to see maximum vaccine uptake then sensible conversation and acceptance that we have a new risk factor in town, with booster if and when necessary. Life must return, and I'm predisposed to life without as many extra controls as possible. Next 6 weeks are major.
Staying in your house for years on end is pretty much guaranteed to drive you to madness, financial ruin and an early grave, I'll tell you that.That's disappointing. I thought a double vaccine dose was pretty much guaranteed to keep you out of hospital. Obviously not :-(
Could end up like AIDS, IE no cure but plenty of medication to allow people to live normal lives even if they get the virus short term or especially Long Covid.Yeah, absolutely. It's not going anywhere so it will be something we need to live with, eventually, think it's just a case of getting as many people vaccinated as possible so that the thing can be managed in seasonal bumps (in similar manner to flu) and not overwhelming waves.
This particular projection (which is one of many) takes into account a positive effect of seasonality helping us out a bit during this coming summer time, and vaccinating teens from September onwards. Whether those factors will be achieved or not remains to be seen and as such the projection would then change.
Either the good people of Bolton don’t move about much, or the signs of increased transmission are more linked to multi generational housing, religious gatherings etcGM Weekly Pop Data after today:~
Borough / Pop Today / 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.
As ever with Pop going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.
Bolton 356/ 169 / UP 187 Testing positive 9.8%
Manchester 44 / 42 / UP 2 Testing positive 9.7%
Bury 40 / 21 / UP 19 Testing positive 9.1%
Rochdale 36 / 50 / DOWN 14 Testing positive 9.7%
Trafford 36 / 29 / UP 7 Testing positive 7.1 %
Wigan 28 / 32 / DOWN 4 Testing positive 8.9%
Salford 22 / 30 / DOWN 8Testing positive 9.1%
Oldham 18 / 27 DOWN 9 Testing positive 9.8%
Stockport 18 / 32 / DOWN 14 Testing positive 7.2%
Tameside 18 / 34 DOWN 16 Testing positive 8.2
This table gets more extraordinary every day. Bolton now 312 Pop Score Points ahead of everyone else. Never seen a region this focused on one place with no spread to adjacent areas. This is very much a one town pandemic which is so far very good news for us all.
Other than Bolton obviously. But let us hope that starts to fall too soon.
As Bolton just keeps climbing the other boroughs are falling with three now on 18.
The minus numbers have some impact on this but are not why there is such a gulf between Bolton and the rest.
The news is days behind on these Bolton numbers you may have noticed. The evening news had the pop score in the 280s. That was 4 or 5 days ago. Using that 'finalised' data and why they keep missing what is happening now as opposed to last week.
When it does change positively we are going to know first here I suspect.
Wasn’t there someone on here who ended up in hospital with COVID after 2 jabs? But just overnight?That's disappointing. I thought a double vaccine dose was pretty much guaranteed to keep you out of hospital. Obviously not :-(
Assuming no more variants. Unlikely.Interesting.
At some point don't we have to accept that covid risk/death falls in step with flu/risk death? I mean flu was suppressed to nearly nought this winter, which might account for 8 to 20k deaths, or 100 a day over a six month season (not many even pay it any mind!). I have no idea what covid will do next winter but I suspect it will be kicking about doing its thing.
I don't advocate letting rip but I do want to see maximum vaccine uptake then sensible conversation and acceptance that we have a new risk factor in town, with booster if and when necessary. Life must return, and I'm predisposed to life without as many extra controls as possible. Next 6 weeks are major.
Cheers MarvinAssuming no more variants. Unlikely.
That sort of future, one with regular vaccine evading variants, would be unbearable, frankly.
Shemnel misunderstood the point I was making. he referred to a tweet forecasting an epidemic based on a 25% more contagious variant but these models make assumptions. One is that the virus will stay static. It wont. That was all I was saying.And thankfully very unlikely.
Covid mutates much more slowly than flu, and despite far, far more people being infected by covid than are in a typical flu season during the pandemic, there's no sign of a truly vaccine escape variant yet. Whereas for flu multiple new strains emerge every season.
Once vaccination is complete and widespread worldwide, there will be far less infections and far less potential for mutations as a result.
I don't think we need to worry about it.