Coronavirus (2021) thread

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ayrshire_blue said:


Another excellent, balanced analysis from JBM.
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Pretty much what I said earlier, you test everyone you will find more cases so a 100 rise in a week with a shit load more random testing will always cause this. Especially as a third of cases are asymptotic apparently.
 
True_Blue69 said:
Pretty much what I said earlier, you test everyone you will find more cases so a 100 rise in a week with a shit load more random testing will always cause this. Especially as a third of cases are asymptotic apparently.
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Maths student?
 
Greater Manchester Cases


481 cases today - up from 326. Highest numbers in many weeks.



Bolton - went up again by 97 biggest rise yet - to 280 Pop score rise just today was 97. Highest in any GM borough in 7 months.


Manchester also up biggest in a while - 28 - to 77. Up 6 on last week.

Bury up 15 to 28 as I feared it might do. Highest in some weeks and up 17 wk to wk.

Wigan also up 6 on 23 - which is the same wk to wk.

Trafford still up but down 3 at 17 - which is up 6 wk to wk.

Salford up by 7 to 15 which is up 3 on last week.

Tameside leaps up after its good low run by 10 to 13 which is up 2 wk to wk.

Rochdale down 2 on 12 - which is down 1 week to week.

Oldham down by 1 to 10 - which is up 3 wk to wk.


So just one borough in single numbers today:


Stockport down 2 on 6 which is down 13 on last week.

Whether it will stay that way who knows?
 
paulchapo said:
Life has to go on at some point. We need to know who amongst the recent hospitalisations and deaths were vaccinated and who weren't. If the vaccinated are at minimal risk then we open up. The unvaccinated have a choice. They can isolate or take a chance, or have the vaccination.
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If our hospitals are overflowing with unvaccinated people, they're still overflowing.

And if it gets to that state, many of those in will be vaccinated too. It's not 100% effective.
 
Greater Manchester

Weekly total cases:-


Bolton top 1100 weekly cases - more than 4 times Manchester which has a much bigger population remember - and at least 11 times (indeed 25 times the three best!) all the other boroughs - but that gulf is encouraging as it is growing wider daily and not spreading much as yet elsewhere.

Stockport had another very good day and takes over as lowest scorer from Tameside and Oldham. Those three are in a real scrap right now.


Stockport 41, Tameside 43, Oldham 45, Salford 58, Rochdale 78, Trafford 91, Wigan 92, Bury 94, Manchester 245, Bolton 1113
 
roubaixtuesday said:
If our hospitals are overflowing with unvaccinated people, they're still overflowing.

And if it gets to that state, many of those in will be vaccinated too. It's not 100% effective.
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nice use of the word “if” there.

You could say

our hospitals are not overflowing as they are not overflowing

it’s not in that state .

vaccines seem to be working well reducing hospital admissions and deaths.
 
davealvers said:
I don’t follow. Are you seriously saying we should ban international travel forever and so no one should ever be able to leave from or arrive into the UK ever again?
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Not been on a plane for nearly three years now, not missing holidays at all,just playing more golf.
 
denislawsbackheel said:
It has never been illegal for a British citizen to return to the UK from anywhere in the world.
If you had looked at the exceptions to the travelling out ban you’d realise why so many flights were going.
Hell, you can even fly to India and Pakistan now for a funeral or visit someone ill!
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Correct, the problem is we have been relying on people self isolating when they come home. and a lot of people have clearly been ignoring that bit.
 
GM Weekly Pop Data after today:~

Borough / Pop Today / 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.



Bolton 387/ 261 / UP 126 Testing positive 9.9%

Bury 50 / 23 / UP 27 Testing positive 9.1%

Manchester 45 / 49 / DOWN 4 Testing positive 9.7%

Trafford 39 / 31/ UP 8 Testing positive 7.1 %

Rochdale 35 / 48 / DOWN 13 Testing positive 9.7%

Wigan 28 / 34 / DOWN 6 Testing positive 8.9%

Salford 22 / 28 / DOWN 6 Testing positive 9.1%

Oldham 19 / 25 DOWN 6 Testing positive 9.8%

Tameside 19 / 34 DOWN 15 Testing positive 8.2

Stockport 14 / 33 / DOWN 19 Testing positive 7.2%


This table gets more extraordinary every day. Bolton now 337 Pop Score Points ahead of everyone else. Never seen a region this focused on one place with no spread to adjacent areas. This is very much a one town pandemic which is so far very good news if Bolton can be contained ASAP.

Though Bury have come from best in GM to closest challengers and need watching carefully.

At the bottom (or top!) Stockport have had an unexpectedly good few days and are now at their lowest numbers in 9 months.

Things can change fast as we have seen with Bolton and possibly now Bury but the gulf between Bolton on 280 and Pop Score of 387 - with a population of 262, 400 versus Stockport on 6 and Pop Score 14 with a population of 284,000 is amazing.

Bolton at 65.6% first doses and 37.2% second doses has over the past week caught up a lot with the mass vaccination programme ongoing.

But is still behind (especially on second doses) from Stockport on 68.2% first doses and 43.3% second doses.

Can the vaccine be making this big difference? If so then in 2 or 3 weeks we should see the numbers edge closer - hopefully more due to Bolton falling than Stockport rising.
 
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