Alan Harper's Tash
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You are using the wrong perspective. Zoom out. We are nearly there. Whether in 2 or 6 weeks time.
Coronavirus (2021) thread
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Healdplace
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ZOE DATA:
ANOTHER BIG JUMP UNFORTUNATELY
Estimated CASES TOP 10,000 for first time in several months.~
In 24 hours up from 8913 to 10, 621. A big daily rise again.
To go with the big rie in ongoing symptomatic cases posted above
These numbers are not showing any real sign of slowing down. Quite the reverse. They are accelerating.
NORTH WEST though falls below Scotland as the worst region in the UK. But both the only two in the UK In the dark red zone.
GM DATA ON ZOE
Manchester now officially the worst in GM
Rises big to 9130 from 5814
Tameside now IS also on offical watch as the second worst in GM.
Which seems still very unlikely as it has gone there because its numbers FELL dramatically and now being under 10,000 Zoe chose to trust them.
It is on 8784 - but I would treat that number as no more real than the 13,000 was yesterday that Zoe rejected.
Trafford rises to 6815 from 5984
Rochdale shoots up to 6212 from 3506
Oldham up a bit again to 5551 from 4426.
Bury falls in half to 4468 from 8584.
Bolton rises a little to 3555 from 3211 yesterday.
Wigan falls a lot to 3021 from 5892
The two lowest boroughs remain the same on Zoe.
Stockport - moves to 2328 from 2329. Down all of 1!
Salford - still the lowest but jumps up to one below the second watch zone at 1999 v 1305.
ANOTHER BIG JUMP UNFORTUNATELY
Estimated CASES TOP 10,000 for first time in several months.~
In 24 hours up from 8913 to 10, 621. A big daily rise again.
To go with the big rie in ongoing symptomatic cases posted above
These numbers are not showing any real sign of slowing down. Quite the reverse. They are accelerating.
NORTH WEST though falls below Scotland as the worst region in the UK. But both the only two in the UK In the dark red zone.
GM DATA ON ZOE
Manchester now officially the worst in GM
Rises big to 9130 from 5814
Tameside now IS also on offical watch as the second worst in GM.
Which seems still very unlikely as it has gone there because its numbers FELL dramatically and now being under 10,000 Zoe chose to trust them.
It is on 8784 - but I would treat that number as no more real than the 13,000 was yesterday that Zoe rejected.
Trafford rises to 6815 from 5984
Rochdale shoots up to 6212 from 3506
Oldham up a bit again to 5551 from 4426.
Bury falls in half to 4468 from 8584.
Bolton rises a little to 3555 from 3211 yesterday.
Wigan falls a lot to 3021 from 5892
The two lowest boroughs remain the same on Zoe.
Stockport - moves to 2328 from 2329. Down all of 1!
Salford - still the lowest but jumps up to one below the second watch zone at 1999 v 1305.
Healdplace
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Scotland data
0 deaths was 1 last week
641 cases - was 490 last week
positivity 4.2% - was 4.2% last week - Not rising at least after regular increases is good news
Hospital data over the weekend less so:
Patients 122 - up 6 on last Friday and up 12 on last Monday
Ventilated icu -12 - up 4 from Friday and last Monday.
The number of patients needing icu in Scotland and England is edging up but only edging at the moment.
0 deaths was 1 last week
641 cases - was 490 last week
positivity 4.2% - was 4.2% last week - Not rising at least after regular increases is good news
Hospital data over the weekend less so:
Patients 122 - up 6 on last Friday and up 12 on last Monday
Ventilated icu -12 - up 4 from Friday and last Monday.
The number of patients needing icu in Scotland and England is edging up but only edging at the moment.
Del_Bosque
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I’m not sure on that, there will always be someone *independant sage* saying we should wait for the next milestone, everyone 2nd jabbed, school kids vacc’d, groups 1-9 offered their boosters.
Can’t believe they abandoned vac passports, would be perfect for the next few months
Healdplace
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Some good news
ZERO deaths in England hospitals for first time in ages and ages.
Even on the day they announced zero last week there was 1 recorded but must have been deleted even though it was from the day before not old.
This time it is literally none at all reported. And again all the weekend data comes from previous 48 hours or so. No backdating happening right now.
BUT - remember this is Sunday data - always the lowest.
Though 0 is the only place you can go after that 1 last week so I guess that can only be good news.
I am sure the media will run with this.
And not the 11 from the two previous days also announced today.
ZERO deaths in England hospitals for first time in ages and ages.
Even on the day they announced zero last week there was 1 recorded but must have been deleted even though it was from the day before not old.
This time it is literally none at all reported. And again all the weekend data comes from previous 48 hours or so. No backdating happening right now.
BUT - remember this is Sunday data - always the lowest.
Though 0 is the only place you can go after that 1 last week so I guess that can only be good news.
I am sure the media will run with this.
And not the 11 from the two previous days also announced today.
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The Light Was Yellow Sir
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Driven by increases in the under 40s who are largely unvaccinated though. No increases in over 60s so no major NHS burden, which is what is important, I’d have thought?
Healdplace
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England hospital deaths data:
SATURDAY:
9 with 4 from the NW. Others 2 London and 3 Midlands.
The 4 NW were 2 from Pennine Acute, 1 from Bolton and 1 from Southport
6 were aged 60 - 79 and 3 were 80 +
SUNDAY:
2 with 1 from NW - That 1 from East Lancashire. The other 1 from the Midlands.
Both aged over 80.
So 5 of the 11 deaths over the 3 day weekemd were from th NW. Who usually under report at weekend.
But only 1 from Bolton and 1 from East Lancashire the top two infected areas in the UK over the past 3 weeks.
Which is pretty hopeful news.
In fact there were more from Pennine Acute
SATURDAY:
9 with 4 from the NW. Others 2 London and 3 Midlands.
The 4 NW were 2 from Pennine Acute, 1 from Bolton and 1 from Southport
6 were aged 60 - 79 and 3 were 80 +
SUNDAY:
2 with 1 from NW - That 1 from East Lancashire. The other 1 from the Midlands.
Both aged over 80.
So 5 of the 11 deaths over the 3 day weekemd were from th NW. Who usually under report at weekend.
But only 1 from Bolton and 1 from East Lancashire the top two infected areas in the UK over the past 3 weeks.
Which is pretty hopeful news.
In fact there were more from Pennine Acute
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Alan Harper's Tash
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Of course you can take that cynical approach, but no one anywhere is trying to lock us down forever.
What isn’t known at the moment is the efficacy of the vaccines. That is currently being put to the test by this Indian variant running rife among younger people.
Once there is enough sustained data to show the vaccines are working against hospitalisations, we will open up fully.
This surge has coincided too close to the “freedom” date, hence talk of it being deferred slightly.
grunge
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It was only for people who had had both jabs and even then the majority of the people who would want to be going to pubs/gigs etc are the age that wont have had any yet.
all the "oldies" going and the younger lot being blocked would have caused carnage.
We have to protect the vaccine too to protect ourselves which means not letting it run away. I don't think it will anyway.
It's a difficult argument and I am not totally convinced by it myself. You can't say if we have 250,000 more cases, the vaccine effectiveness will fall by x. It's all rather nebulous.
We should be cautious though as we are so reliant on our immunity continuing to work. We're almost there now I feel. In those countries where there is no Indian variant or it's very very low, infections have gone right down (Israel, USA).The Kent variant is also goint to be extinct soon so if it hadn't have jumped we'd be done. But of course it is a virus, and it mutates.
13th May report ; 59.7% / 30.5% take up of 1st/2nd vaccine in UK adults (>18)
3rd June report; 66.3% / 43.8% take up of 1st/2nd vaccine in UK adults (>18)
so a good leap in 3 weeks. by June 21st it should be nicely above 53/54% double jabbed for adults. Dont really see the problem waiting into July to bump that right up towards 70% double jabbed adults? (and surely >80% 1st jabs)
3rd June report; 66.3% / 43.8% take up of 1st/2nd vaccine in UK adults (>18)
so a good leap in 3 weeks. by June 21st it should be nicely above 53/54% double jabbed for adults. Dont really see the problem waiting into July to bump that right up towards 70% double jabbed adults? (and surely >80% 1st jabs)
Alan Harper's Tash
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And this is the dilemma. We are dealing with the unknown vaccine effectiveness. It could be 99% or it could be 70%, for example. The figure will determine how many people will need to be hospitalised. If it is manageable, we open up.
As you say, we are nearly there but need to tread cautiously, especially with foreign travel.
I think we know how roughly how effective it is. We have labs and people to survey. Vaccinated and unvaccinated. It must be one of the most studied materials on Earth. What is more difficult to establish is how quickly our immunity will be degraded by mutation. Not knowing that means it's difficult to know what the price is of lifting all restrictions
If you ask someone do you want to do X or Y, they want to know what the consequences are, and I don't think any one can quantify what the effect on our immunity will be by lifting restrictions. I think this is the uncertainty. But just because we are uncertain, doesn't mean we should ignore this factor.
Alan Harper's Tash
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Not against this variant though. They’re using real time data to work that out.
Healdplace
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Northern Ireland Data:
ONE COUNTRY STILL GOING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION
0 deaths - was 0 last week
54 cases - was 39 last week
3.1% positivity - was 3.1% last week
523 seven day cases total - was 484 last week
2 Care Home outbreaks - was 4 last week
16 patients in hospital - was 29 last week
0 on ventilators - was 1 last week
ONE COUNTRY STILL GOING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION
0 deaths - was 0 last week
54 cases - was 39 last week
3.1% positivity - was 3.1% last week
523 seven day cases total - was 484 last week
2 Care Home outbreaks - was 4 last week
16 patients in hospital - was 29 last week
0 on ventilators - was 1 last week
Is that 1 uk death today
Healdplace
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Northern Ireland 7 day cases
Age of those testing positive
0 - 19 (175) 33.5%
20 - 39 (220) 42. 1%
40 - 59 (95) 18.2%
60 - 79 (26) 5.1%
80 PLUS (6) 1.1%
Over three quarters under 40 and just 6% over 60. The gap edges upwards and as stated many times before the dynamics of this wave v the past ones has changed markedly in terms of age because of the vaccines it would seem.
Which you would assume will continue to translate into fewer hospitalisations and deaths.
Age of those testing positive
0 - 19 (175) 33.5%
20 - 39 (220) 42. 1%
40 - 59 (95) 18.2%
60 - 79 (26) 5.1%
80 PLUS (6) 1.1%
Over three quarters under 40 and just 6% over 60. The gap edges upwards and as stated many times before the dynamics of this wave v the past ones has changed markedly in terms of age because of the vaccines it would seem.
Which you would assume will continue to translate into fewer hospitalisations and deaths.
if im not being stupid, your NI posts always seem to indicate that NI do < 2k tests per day, which seems to me incredibly low. Have they always been like this or just knocked it on the head recently?
edit: i checked, they do about 70k per week
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