Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Marvin]

Worth following Bolton and Blackburn imo for any indications of slow down in epidemic.

I posted Bolton earlier where the infection is in decline but here's Blackburn and Darwen. Clearly rising. I don't think there is much time gap between the start of both epidemics, but Bolton has a higher proportion of jabs.Could be other less obvious exlanations for the difference.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

Was reading at weekend that independent sage are very politically left sided and basically just say whatever they can to make the government look bad. I wouldn’t pay any attention to them, why are they even chipping in anyway.

I don’t listen to Independent Sage but at least they didn’t insist on the roll out of the wrong kind of App from the Isle of Wight track and trace experiment. That’s probably one of things Cummings thinks Hancock should have been sacked for.

 

[Healdplace]

Latest Vaccine Update by Population Percentage for 10 GM boroughs

Borough/ First Dose / Both Doses / TODAY V YESTERDAY



BOLTON 72.4% / 48.7% V 72.2% / 48.2%

BURY 71.6% / 51.2% V 71 0% / 50.5%

MANCHESTER 52.4 / 30.4 % V 52.0% / 30.1%

OLDHAM 66.7% / 45.9% V 66.5% / 45.6%

ROCHDALE 69.9% / 45.6% V 69.9% / 45.2%

SALFORD 59.2 % / 40. 3 % V 58.9% / 40.0%

STOCKPORT 75.1% / 53.9% V 74.8% / 53.6%

TAMESIDE 70.8% / 49.0 % V 70.7% / 48.6%

TRAFFORD 73.0% / 50.5% V 72.9% / 50.4%

WIGAN 74.6% / 52.7% V 74.5% / 52.3%


Stockport becomes first borough to three quarters of its population on first doses and also highest in GM on having both doses.

Manchester finally over 30% on second doses having topped 50% on first at last in the past week.

Bury and Trafford the only other boroughs to have given over half their people two doses.

 

[Johnny Mars Bar]

I saw on SKY News this morning that one in 25 new positive tests come from people who have been double vaxxed. Wouldn't mind betting the vast majority of those are the bellends who think that bestows upon them some sort of invincible status and have stopped wearing masks and social distancing !!??

If we still need to do social distancing and masks after both jabs, what’s the fucking point? That’s it until the end of time? Fuck that.

 

[Healdplace]

I saw on SKY News this morning that one in 25 new positive tests come from people who have been double vaxxed. Wouldn't mind betting the vast majority of those are the bellends who think that bestows upon them some sort of invincible status and have stopped wearing masks and social distancing !!??

Not really - as 1 in 25 is 4% which means 96% are not going into hospital.

96% success of the vaccine is the upper level of what the data suggests they do protect.

Which is well up on prior expectations (flu jabs typically only work in about two thirds of people).

So these numbers just prove the vaccines work as we are being told they do but some people just get unlucky.

No need to seek any other explanation.

There is also a time lag before protection kicks in so if they are not taking that into account before assuming immunity then you may be right and perhaps the vaccines work near 100% in the more cautious.

No doubt someone will be doing research into this.

 

[Manc in London]

You clearly visit very different pubs to the ones I go to (typically a 1,000 a year), which certainly have more staff on relative to custom, or are operating reduced hours to cope !

Covid regs certainly adds to the cost of running a restaurant, and all the Covid regulations have certainly deterred the older folk who struggle with masks and apps.

What I would say is that the regulations including Track and Trace and masks don't bother us, but they certainly grind down the publicans I speak to).

Indeed, certainly extra costs in relation to Covid regs. No doubt and all but one or two pubs I have visited have made a significant effort in that regard.

In terms of staff, they have been the same. Certainly not noticeable to me. That is in the city and the burbs.

 

[Manc in London]

I saw on SKY News this morning that one in 25 new positive tests come from people who have been double vaxxed. Wouldn't mind betting the vast majority of those are the bellends who think that bestows upon them some sort of invincible status and have stopped wearing masks and social distancing !!??

Immunity from the vaccine may not have been at it's maximum at the time. Of course, the vaccines will not be 100%. Is any vaccine 100%?

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

I saw on SKY News this morning that one in 25 new positive tests come from people who have been double vaxxed. Wouldn't mind betting the vast majority of those are the bellends who think that bestows upon them some sort of invincible status and have stopped wearing masks and social distancing !!??

or much more likely just old frail people who unfortunately have been double jabbed but given their age have weak systems and bodies and are cared for in hospitals or care homes where the virus is much more prevalent And easy to catch.

even if you catch it and it results in mild illness, mild illness can be serious if old and frail and/ or underlying health condition so will need hospital treatment.

but yeah lets go with your bell end theory sounds more plausible.

 

[Bluesince1979]

If we still need to do social distancing and masks after both jabs, what’s the fucking point? That’s it until the end of time? Fuck that.

Yep

 

[Bluesince1979]

I saw on SKY News this morning that one in 25 new positive tests come from people who have been double vaxxed. Wouldn't mind betting the vast majority of those are the bellends who think that bestows upon them some sort of invincible status and have stopped wearing masks and social distancing !!??

What are you on about?

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

More authoritarian madness, that surely can’t be legal? They’ve done this after one positive test as well.

“A group of students in Preston halls have reportedly been banned from leaving or entering the building after someone tested positive for Covid.

According to a parent of one of the students living in Jubilee Court, Fylde Road; the residents have been told they cannot go in or out of the building in the next 10 days and their key fobs have been deactivated.”

https://www.lancs.live/news/lancashire-news/preston-uni-students-locked-in-20736863

 

[Healdplace]

My contact at a NHS trust has said hospitalisation s in their area have been younger people for short stays in the past month.

The heat maps on the Gov UK site show it is younger people catching it. They are very consistent. If you look at Bolton all the cases are under 40 and start high at primary school age. All the over 60s are in very light colours and low numbers.

The data I post regularly on the weekly cases from N Ireland by age show the same - earlier today 75% under 40 and 6% over 60.

Pretty obviously if so few over 60 are catching it very few will be entering hospital.

I did some rough numbers on the past 2 months looking at cases in the NW and Bolton week by week and the deaths.

The NW cases wk to wk (showing the big recent rise) go

2701 - 2287 - 1785 - 1649 - 1595 - 2112 - 2849 - 3819 - 6238 - 10, 061

Bolton cases

178 - 127 - 148 - 132 - 237 - 465 - 925 - 1296 - 1088 - 992

The NW deaths

24 - 20 - 18 - 8 - 6 - 13 - 7 - 13 - 11 - 9

Bolton deaths

8 - 2 - 3 - 2 - 2 - 1 - 1 - 2 - 1 - 2

There would be a lag from cases to deaths but there is nothing serious going on here s o far.

The numbers now - though rising fast in NW but flatteing and falling in Bolton - are lower than they were 2 months ago as cases were then falling from their winter peak in late January.

 

[Alan Harper's Tash]

The heat maps on the Gov UK site show it is younger people catching it. They are very consistent. If you look at Bolton all the cases are under 40 and start high at primary school age. All the over 60s are in very light colours and low numbers.

The data I post regularly on the weekly cases from N Ireland by age show the same - earlier today 75% under 40 and 6% over 60.

Pretty obviously if so few over 60 are catching it very few will be entering hospital.

I did some rough numbers on the past 2 months looking at cases in the NW and Bolton week by week and the deaths.

The NW cases wk to wk (showing the big recent rise) go

2701 - 2287 - 1785 - 1649 - 1595 - 2112 - 2849 - 3819 - 6238 - 10, 061

Bolton cases

178 - 127 - 148 - 132 - 237 - 465 - 925 - 1296 - 1088 - 992

The NW deaths

24 - 20 - 18 - 8 - 6 - 13 - 7 - 13 - 11 - 9

Bolton deaths

8 - 2 - 3 - 2 - 2 - 1 - 1 - 2 - 1 - 2

There would be a lag from cases to deaths but there is nothing serious going on here s o far.

The numbers now - though rising fast in NW but flatteing and falling in Bolton - are lower than they were 2 months ago as cases were then falling from their winter peak in late January.

As I said yesterday, the figures are looking promising for a June 21st reopening, but it hadn’t been sanctioned yet as they were waiting 10 days or so to analyse the Bolton hospitalisation figures post their peak.

Obviously now other areas are peaking/post peaking, they can cross reference those figures against the Bolton ones and if they correlate and don’t cause major issues in the NHS, we will be good to go.

 

[bluethrunthru]

or much more likely just old frail people who unfortunately have been double jabbed but given their age have weak systems and bodies and are cared for in hospitals or care homes where the virus is much more prevalent And easy to catch.

even if you catch it and it results in mild illness, mild illness can be serious if old and frail and/ or underlying health condition so will need hospital treatment.

but yeah lets go with your bell end theory sounds more plausible.

given that its spreading fast among younger people and not the elderly and frail .............

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

given that its spreading fast among younger people and not the elderly and frail .............

its not 100% protection No vaccine is.

The issue is who ultimately ends up in hospital ( or preferably not).

I am still not entirely sure what point you are making.

 

[bluethrunthru]

What are you on about?

I am on about the number of cases in the double vaxxed cohorts and am hearing and seeing people not distancing not wearing masks and when challenged their response is "I'm double vaxxed mate - I can't catch it" which is incorrect and does not address the danger they still pose to others.

 

[Bluesince1979]

I am on about the number of cases in the double vaxxed cohorts and am hearing and seeing people not distancing not wearing masks and when challenged their response is "I'm double vaxxed mate - I can't catch it" which is incorrect and does not address the danger they still pose to others.

So on a daily basis you are hearing and seeing people say that? I dont believe you.

so is it these people that you keep seeing or more likely the elderly and vulnerable ?

 

[bluethrunthru]

So on a daily basis you are hearing and seeing people say that? I dont believe you.

so is it these people that you keep seeing or more likely the elderly and vulnerable ?

You see them on vox pops on TV news - I have seen them saying it around the town where I live - its said on Twitter - some people think its an antidote - they also mostly believe in "Freedom Day" as a concept. Whether restrictions are lifted or not on the 21st I think they will find the 22nd onwards pretty disappointing - Lockdown will be recommended at the end of September and Johnson will leap into action by November.......

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

I am on about the number of cases in the double vaxxed cohorts and am hearing and seeing people not distancing not wearing masks and when challenged their response is "I'm double vaxxed mate - I can't catch it" which is incorrect and does not address the danger they still pose to others.

I think it’s fair for those lucky enough to be double jabbed to feel a level of comfort and safety in so being.

I have been double jabbed and it does give me greater confidence. Isn’t that the point Of it?

yes, I can still get it but hopefully if what they claim it should keep me out of hospital and others being jabbed or not can assess their own protection around others.

I don’t think calling people bell ends for trying to get back to a normalish life when double jabbed and feeling safer and socialising again is really a fair comment.

that’s the point of the vaccine programme.

 

[Meatbag]