Coronavirus (2021) thread

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I'm sorry but I disagree with you. Yes, there are people who can't have the vaccine. My sympathies are with them. Should we hamper our economy and reduce everyone else's freedoms to cater for them? Unfortunately for them, no. We are always going to have COVID now. There's nothing we can do about it, so other than vaccinating as many people who can and want to be vaccinated, we may as well crack on and these people will have to be more careful than the rest of us.




But the hospitals are under minimal stress with COVID currently. There are fewer COVID patients in hospital than there are hospitals in the UK.

At the height of the pandemic, we coped with 40k COVID patients. >1k patients in hospital with COVID is ultimately negligible and our health service has dealt with much higher numbers of flu patients for decades. With the vaccine rollout, it's unlikely we'll get anywhere near 20k patients at one time, never mind 40k again.

It's all fear-mongering, what-ifs and worst-case scenarios. We need to have a bit of courage and stop letting COVID control every aspect of our lives now.
Fear mongering I haven't seen. We're simply trying to go through the facts. It might not be enough to change your point of view, and that's fine. Your opinion is yours and that's how it goes. It's far too easy however to just ignore and pretend things aren't the way they are. We did that in September, and last year. Always the cry comes back - fear mongering! Worst case scenarios! But it doesn't change the predictable nature of disease and the outcomes. It doesn't change reality.

It's basically people's lives, for me. Their right to continue to live. That, Vs what usually is an attitude of 'Not wanting to be told what to do anymore by busybodies'.

Unless you recognise that, recognise the cost of what you're saying should happen, you're a moral farce. If you do add it up, and still say that's what should happen - then you're a man, with an unshakeable belief.

Stop pushing it away. It's not that scary. When making predictions, we calculate a range of scenarios. The worst case has to be understood. What is usually referred to as 'the worst case' isn't anything like the worst case they can imagine, it's just a bad case. People are very rarely making things up, but people on all sides make mistakes and push their voice a little to hard. Some do latch on to every negative rather easily. Sometimes people will seek to use fear to convince people like you. This is all normal.

You're expected to see through that, and still look at the likely range of outcomes, and not tell yourself that it's someone else, it's people who deserve it. Or that vulnerable people can just take care of themselves, because it's never been the case, everyone's life relies on other people, everyone is connected together eventually by their contacts and spaces. That's why things have gone the way they have. That's the basic of understanding epidemiology.

Otherwise, we wouldn't be here, still. You're expected to look at what happened in December, and at the start of last year, and figure out what you've learned.

Because the only way out is to act proactively, to take the right measures early - otherwise it just comes back on us, like, we end up in lockdown for about 6 months, having waved away EVERYTHING in the second half of last year. I wanted to be out of this a lot earlier. I really did. That's why I supported the circuit breaker last year. Or anything. Because the longer we left it, the longer the eventual 'cure' would involve punitive measures.

We've made the same mistake twice now - ignored it and pretend that it will go away. And then at the last possible minute, taken drastic action. How many times? This isn't going away. If you just believe there is nothing more, then do us all a favour, tell us that, but stop telling us that people will be okay, it won't affect anyone who doesn't deserve it, because that's a cowards way out. Stand up for what you believe in - but don't keep telling us there's no cost, because we know it's not true, and it makes you look like a coward who can't face the truth. If nothing will change your mind, so be it. But that means you have to look at it all anyway, rather than just pretend that it is all just someone else's preference to make you scared. Because it isn't - it's your preference not face very sad facts, that in all likelyhood won't change your mind. But you're scared they will. And that's what people do - they don't want to change their mind on important issues. They don't want to later decide they feel differently, or that their priorities change. Adults, honestly, I believe all adults should have the ability to know this and deal with it. Look at it. Stop burying your head in the sand. We sell ourselves, our friends, and our country short when we take the easy way and suck our thumbs. If you believe in something, then remind yourself of that, when facing a fact that doesn't fit. Don't start spreading it around that the fact is a lie.
 
Look at the ages of those who are infected:

Young children. On the basis of that we might expect vaccination of children?

Depends on whether you tolerate disruption to education, and whether it spreads to older groups. Imo it will find older unvaccinated people if it spreads in younger people....parents, grandparents.

It will be self-limiting though.

Is this the first time this data has been available on gov.uk? Not seen it before.


View attachment 18678
Not that recently - no. Been there a while.

As I stated up page I posted loads of these for different locations last week in here.

They are ALL the same wherever you look.
 
‘Experts’ are generally only expert in their particular field. The mistake people are making is only viewing this through the lens of epidemiology and lacking empathy towards those that have zoomed out and looked at the bigger picture. Just deferring to ‘experts’ whose only interest is the Covid aspect and who don’t know, understand or care about the impact of a ‘covid-only’ attitude is misguided.

The job of politicians is to manage us out of this crisis taking into account the epidemiology but also not destroying the futures of the vast majority of citizens in the process. Unfortunately, because our politicians are so useless, as they have demonstrated in abundance, they are more bothered about blame and so hide behind alleged experts to avoid having to show any leadership and end up doing nothing. It would be funny if it wasn’t so tragic.

I’ve said it before that there will be a social ending to this pandemic because the ‘experts’ will never be satisfied and the goalposts will always move away. So it is left to the citizens to decide when they’re no longer scared and that life must go on.
To be fair, I think we are there now. No way on earth will there be another lockdown, no one and I mean no one will bother, I not going to stop visiting my parents and family now. That door is firmly closed. I believe compliance has completely stopped
 
Hospital data not so good.

Admissions up from 80 last week to 121.

NW from 25 to 45

NW numbers not been below 30 a day all week.

The only region showing this growth usurprisingly.

England Patients up 19 to 879. - 103 week to week rise. Biggest in months.

Ventilators also up to 140 - was 123 last week,

NW risen again to 47 - highest in the UK and more than double the 22 they had 2 weeks ago today.

If you missed my post saying this we went over 1000 in hospital in the UK again for the first time in a week or two yesterday.
 
696 cases in Scotland today

18 of them aged 65+
117 aged 45-64

261 aged 25-44
294 aged 0-24

******************

17.5k first doses
31k second doses

*******************

Of note Greater Glasgow and Clyde is back up again both day to day and also week on week. I use Greater Glasgow to compare with Bolton as both seemed particularly hit with Delta around the same time. Sadly after a plateau and slight decline, cases have accelerated a little bit again. Hopefully this trend can be stopped and a reverse will follow.
 
To be fair, I think we are there now. No way on earth will there be another lockdown, no one and I mean no one will bother, I not going to stop visiting my parents and family now. That door is firmly closed. I believe compliance has completely stopped


I think,in general,most are appreciative about the good work done with vaccinations.
They aren't so happy with the way the government have behaved,re controlling the borders so aren't in the mood to be lectured about socialising.

People I work and socialise with are pretty much all in agreement,they can get fucked with any punitive restrictions.
 
Not a good day in GM as you might expect, Almost everywhere up multiple times week to week.

Bury actually were the lowest scorers today on 50 - just 8 up week to week.

But Bolton, Stockport and Salford (only 10 behind Bolton today) were in three figures again. And Manchester over 200 at 214.

Many places trippled week on week.

Stockport only doubled but posts 102 for the third time in 5 days and does at leat seem to have flattened off at around 100.

Wigan similarly has flattened in the high 80s.


Oldham - which is best in GM right now also has started to slowly escalate - last week 18, today 76

You can see why these numbers have prompted ation in GM though it was pretty clear where we were headed last week.

never mind June 21 restrictions lifting

coming soon.

greater Manchester lock down again.
 
To be fair, I think we are there now. No way on earth will there be another lockdown, no one and I mean no one will bother, I not going to stop visiting my parents and family now. That door is firmly closed. I believe compliance has completely stopped
It's centred on schools now. How do you stop the spread in any town once it's established?

Heat map Bolton.jpg
 
never mind June 21 restrictions lifting

coming soon.

greater Manchester lock down again.
IMO there's no point locking down. Once it's this infectious, and vaccine can't be used on kids, that's pretty much it. It will just spread through districts until it hits a level where the epidemic contracts.

Schools are open from now until end of July then SUmmer hols?
 
IMO there's no point locking down. Once it's this infectious, and vaccine can't be used on kids, that's pretty much it. It will just spread through districts until it hits a level where the epidemic contracts.

Schools are open from now until end of July then SUmmer hols?

agree we just got email from school masks at all times again at school

minimise travel in and out of gtr manchester decree issued .

bollox.am off to the pub.
 
There could of course be one obvious explanation for infection figures in Bolton/Blackburn? Surge testing in schools but haven't we done that before? It does look different to me.
 
At the height of the pandemic, we coped with 40k COVID patients. >1k patients in hospital with COVID is ultimately negligible and our health service has dealt with much higher numbers of flu patients for decades. With the vaccine rollout, it's unlikely we'll get anywhere near 20k patients at one time, never mind 40k again.

I admire your confidence. Personally I think it's much less certain, as do experts. Note as well as the scary potential highs, there are also scenarios of potentially minimal impact:

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But you make a good point - there *is* a level of hospital admissions which we can live with. What's your level? And at what point of rising figures do you think we should take action to prevent it?

The virus is currently doubling every 10 days or so. We'd expect that to accelerate again if we remove all restrictions. So let's say weekly doubling.

We currently have somewhere north of 100 daily admissions, and are probably committed to double that already

In a month at current growth it gets to ~2,000 and we're nearly at wave one level, and if cases are still doubling as fast we're committed to wave two peak.

Against that we have vaccinations continuing, positive seasonal effects, people reacting to these figures by restricting their behaviour voluntarily, and it seems that hospital stays are less severe and shorter at the moment than the last waves.

Given what we know right now, today, IMO further removal of restrictions isn't remotely sensible. Equally, reimposing lockdown doesn't seem right either.
 
Fergusson is not an expert, unless you consider his expertses to be in woeful predictions.

Note sure whjy you've brought up Ferguson, but the Imperial model Ferguson is the lead author on and precipitated the first lockdown projected 500,000 dead for an unmitigated pandemic, 250,000 mitigated and we have 150,000, with the pandemic brought to and end through vaccination.

Which seems almost exactly correct.

And no-one else reputable has anything much different.
 
The issue is that being vaccinated only protects from severe illness. You can still catch and spread COVID, so there will always be new variants and it will always be used as a threat to control the general public.

I'd argue vaccinating the under 30s as they are doing now will have an incredibly minimal effect on hospital figures.
Not if you look at the age heat maps for infections. It's mainly spreading in schools.
 
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never mind June 21 restrictions lifting

coming soon.

greater Manchester lock down again.
Zero chance , huge numbers double jabbed , people will just go into bordering towns and cities. They need to roll out vaccines for all adults ASAP , surge test and protect the vulnerable. Fuckers who don’t take the vaccine up because of bollocks they’ve read on Facebook deserve no sympathy and should be banned from entering any pub or restaurant on the grounds that they are idiots. Had a frank exchange of views with a lad I know in the pub last week, he declared he didn’t need the vaccine because he had a fantastic immune system, on enquiring how he knew his reply was “ I work on building sites in all weather “ !!!
 
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