Coronavirus (2021) thread

[roubaixtuesday]

Delta has arrived here and is expanding fast. But Wales has a low base to start from and the best UK vaccination numbers. It should make the difference in how far this goes that we are trying to achieve with the 4 week delay elsewere in opening up.

Hopefully that will vindicate the plan behind the delay in other nations. We will see.

Wales gave hope that Delta could be stopped very soon by vaccination. These numbers are really bad in that context - it shows that exponential growth is still seen even at Wales' vaccination rates.

All UK nations are now growing ~exponentially (straight line on log plot) with similar doubling times. If anything, Wales is growing fastest, though the data is far too short and noisy to conclude that robustly.



Continental Europe should be very concerned by this data IMO. 60,000 travelling to Wembley seems like madness.

 

[Healdplace]

Zoe App data

This covers the last 48 hours btw

Predicted cases up 619 to 19, 121 - which is a slowing of 676 and 1109 in 24 hours each.

Ongoing symptomatic cases 242, 192 - which is up 12, 301 in two days and is again significantly lower than the previous rises of 8207 and 10, 340 in the previous 24 hours.

NW still in deep red and only behind Scotland which is far and away above anywhere else (2 or 3 times the NW levels)

 

[Healdplace]

Wales gave hope that Delta could be stopped very soon by vaccination. These numbers are really bad in that context - it shows that exponential growth is still seen even at Wales' vaccination rates.

All UK nations are now growing ~exponentially (straight line on log plot) with similar doubling times. If anything, Wales is growing fastest, though the data is far too short and noisy to conclude that robustly.

View attachment 19903

Continental Europe should be very concerned by this data IMO. 60,000 travelling to Wembley seems like madness.

Drakeford has noted that every day cases in Wales include a number that are actually from England - visitors to the North Wales coast from the North West seem to have spread it significantly in big hot spots like Llandudno, Rhyl and Prestatyn. And tested in Wales. Not in huge numbers but it is obviously partly how and why this has spread.

This may well have played into Nicola Sturgeon's actions.

The rise is steep but might be followed by a steeper fall.

Guess we can only wait and see and hope.

Especially as the UK government seem to be losing control and are now all but certain to open up in mid July regardless knowing people will do it anyway if they choose not to do it for them.

The way the tone on this thread has changed in recent days proves that.

Ironically my post on Nicola Sturgeon and the ban got expunged as too poliitical but was almost apolitical - as it was intended to be - versus many posts since.

Right now you cannot entirely separate politics from the pandemic as we edge towards finding the best way to live with what is happening. People have simply lost patience and will not wait for numbers to decide.

 

[Gremlin]

Zoe App data

This covers the last 48 hours btw

Predicted cases up 619 to 19, 121 - which is a slowing of 676 and 1109 in 24 hours each.

Ongoing symptomatic cases 242, 192 - which is up 12, 301 in two days and is again significantly lower than the previous rises of 8207 and 10, 340 in the previous 24 hours.

NW still in deep red and only behind Scotland which is far and away above anywhere else (2 or 3 times the NW levels)

So Nicola's travel ban between Scotland and Manchester is actually to protect Manchester, not Scotland?

 

[Marvin]

Drakeford has noted that every day cases in Wales include a number that are actually from England - visitors to the North Wales coast from the North West seem to have spread it significantly in big hot spots like Llandudno, Rhyl and Prestatyn. And tested in Wales. Not in huge numbers but it is obviously partly how and why this has spread.

This may well have played into Nicola Sturgeon's actions.

The rise is steep but might be followed by a steeper fall.

Guess we can only wait and see and hope.

Especially as the UK government seem to be losing control and are now all but certain to open up in mid July regardless knowing people will do it anyway if they choose not to do it for them.

The way the tone on this thread has changed in recent days proves that.

Ironically my post on Nicola Sturgeon and the ban got expunged as too poliitical but was almost apolitical - as it was intended to be - versus many posts since.

Right now you cannot entirely separate politics from the pandemic as we edge towards finding the best way to live with what is happening. People have simply lost patience and will not wait for numbers to decide.

Steep rises nationally but maybe evidence for growth choking off in the places where it was once rising fastest.

 

[Healdplace]

As for Wales and eberywhere else tbh - the rise in cases is less of a concern to the other data.

20,000 cases now is nothing like 20,000 cases was in January. That is really the thing to remember.

The chain between cases ad death has been broken - not entirely but very significantly - and THAT is realky the key to where we are.

This wave is inevitable and unstoppable and In some ways letting it rip might be the best way out. IF that has a low enough hospital stress level.

Think this will factor into where we go from here now. And it may have been close to being factored into opening up already. But we had to hope and see that the worst wave numer scenarios wer not likely to be met. And whilst we are obviously going to see cases rise - especially outside the NW and Scotland who likely will be coming out of this as other places still peak - we might yet cope.

Andy Burnham might be considering banning travel INTO Greater Manchester in a week or two.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Right now you cannot entirely separate politics from the pandemic as we edge towards finding the best way to live with what is happening. People have simply lost patience and will not wait for numbers to decide.

Politics has always been integral to the pandemic - the progress of the virus is directly linked to the policy response.

On people losing patience - I wouldn't read too much into the opinions of a few of us freaks on an internet forum. The public has been more willing to accept restrictions than the govt to impose them from the very start.

What does seem impossible to justify is some of the rank inconsistency now abounding. 60,000 people in stadiums but no socialising at a wedding. But none of this is surprising, given the events of the past 18 months.

Keep jabbing.

 

[Healdplace]

So Nicola's travel ban between Scotland and Manchester is actually to protect Manchester, not Scotland?

Was not the intention but is quite possibly the consequence.

Scotland i very clearly worse than Greater Manchester right now.

But first in first out is usually the way these waves work.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

IF that has a low enough hospital stress level.

It doesn't, I'm afraid.

If cases catch up with vaccinations in terms of yielding immunity, that's maybe 100,000 cases daily.

Current hospitalisation rate ~5%.

5,000 hospitalisations a day.

 

[Healdplace]

Politics has always been integral to the pandemic - the progress of the virus is directly linked to the policy response.

On people losing patience - I wouldn't read too much into the opinions of a few of us freaks on an internet forum. The public has been more willing to accept restrictions than the govt to impose them from the very start.

What does seem impossible to justify is some of the rank inconsistency now abounding. 60,000 people in stadiums but no socialising at a wedding. But none of this is surprising, given the events of the past 18 months.

Keep jabbing.

Oh I agree and I am not judging it from on here. Many people who have been very compliant have reached the point of seeing the hypocrisy of letting diplomats party for political get togethers or trial raves happening or people from around Europe to report or party on football being let into the UK to stop the prestige being taken to another European country and asking why should I bother. I have been double jabbed. We were told that was the plan. I am not losing another Summer.

They have to see that mood unfolding amongst even the more cautious.