Coronavirus (2021) thread

[kevin horlocks wand]

Tracking SARS-CoV-2 variants

All viruses, including SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, change over time. Most changes have little to no impact on the virus’ properties. However, some changes may affect the virus’s properties, such as how easily it spreads, the associated disease severity, or the performance of...

www.who.int

especially when they have started at the other end of the alphabet for Variants of interest.

and the plus . Not just a Greek alphabet letter but an even better Plus type.

like GCSEs you can get an A but not as good as an A*

it will be double plus soon,

 

[Gabriel]

I'll be really worried when we get to the omega variant - both because of the sheer number of variants and because it sounds like a great movie title.

Good point, but there’ll be greater worries for the self-conscious when we get the ‘μ/Μe‘ variant, those with a weak bladder won’t be looking forward to the ‘Π/Pe’ variant, and the Welsh will be beside themselves at the thought of the ‘τ/Taff’ variant.

 

[Great Uncle Kip]

With Delta Plus and other variants we just have to accept i think that the virus has been designed to adapt to transmission fantastically well..and thanks to gain of function experiments It is doing this better than any scientist could possibly hope.

In reality we are all going to get it, its now a case of making sure we are as protected as we can be when we do.

 

[BlueAnorak]

This makes absolutely no sense, how is it possible that this variant is here? India has been on the red list for 2 months and for red list countries you MUST go into a hotel for 10 days.

If it's so extra transmissible then this would not translate into just 41 cases in 2 months.

Its called simultaneous evolution. Very common in viruses especially RNA ones.
If an RNA virus can evolve into a more infectious strain, then it will do, and will do in multiple places.
This all due to the extreme rapidity of RNA virus mutation.

 

[grunge]

and the plus . Not just a Greek alphabet letter but an even better Plus type.

like GCSEs you can get an A but not as good as an A*

it will be double plus soon,

that's just randomly what some official in India called it. wont even be on the radar for official naming yet. that will only happen when the WHO have officially looked into it and graded it as "Concern" or "Interest" or just drop it entirely as a non event.

 

[inbetween]

Because the whole isolation thing is incredibly pointless and full of loopholes.

Most people flying back from places like India stop off in other countries and switch airlines. You could be an air hostess on Etihad flying to and from Abu Dhabi a few times a week, no need to quarantine in a hotel, yet half the passengers on your flights do have to!

They haven't thought any of it through and there is no perfect system.

Aren't these people tested regularly though and by regularly I mean several times per week plus before and after every flight? Surely cases would be picked up before that person travels as even asymptomatics will test positive whether they quarantine or not.

I can understand if people are messing about trying to avoid the system but to my knowledge it's currently extremely difficult to do so because other countries have the same restrictions. For example, you can't currently fly to Frankfurt from India and then to here because you face the exact same restrictions in Germany. The other route is through Turkey or the UAE for example but both are on the red list.

The Indian variant also generally does not exist in Europe where cases are falling so the hopping scenario seems unlikely. Another thing is you also have to test negative to actually fly in the first place so an amazing sequence of events needs to occur for you to get here, avoid quarantine and then spread the virus about.

It sounds to me like we need to suspend all arrivals directly or indirectly from countries of concern, forget quarantine.

 

[inbetween]

Its called simultaneous evolution. Very common in viruses especially RNA ones.
If an RNA virus can evolve into a more infectious strain, then it will do, and will do in multiple places.
This all due to the extreme rapidity of RNA virus mutation.

if this is the case then we should stop monitoring variants from other countries and communicating it as fear because it is clearly pointless. The most dangerous variant and the one responsible for the most UK deaths is the one that started in our own backyard.

 

[Healdplace]

When a variant turns up in the US I bet they insist on it being named the Yankee Doodle.

If this new version of Delta is more transmisable that is not going to be much of a big deal in a country where we are already in the 80% PLUS population with antibodies from both catching it already and mass vaccinations.

The only variant we need to be alert for is one that seriously evades the vaccines. The rest just speed up the duration of an inevitable wave. Which in some ways will help,

 

[BlueAnorak]

if this is the case then we should stop monitoring variants from other countries and communicating it as fear because it is clearly pointless. The most dangerous variant and the one responsible for the most UK deaths is the one that started in our own backyard.

No. We need to monitor what variants are springing up all over the world and adjust future vaccine batches accordingly.
I suspect we will need a vaccine jab top up every 6 months for a while then move to a yearly cycle when it becomes more and more difficult for the virus to mute into something more infectious that our bodies can't handle.
It is the nature of a novell (new) virus.

 

[Healdplace]

Wales data:

1 death - was 0 last week. First death in quite a few days.

213 cases - was `141 last week

2.3% positivity - was 2.1% last week

47 patients in hospital - was 41 last week

1 ventilated - was 1 last week


Delta has arrived here and is expanding fast. But Wales has a low base to start from and the best UK vaccination numbers. It should make the difference in how far this goes that we are trying to achieve with the 4 week delay elsewere in opening up.

Hopefully that will vindicate the plan behind the delay in other nations. We will see.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Delta has arrived here and is expanding fast. But Wales has a low base to start from and the best UK vaccination numbers. It should make the difference in how far this goes that we are trying to achieve with the 4 week delay elsewere in opening up.

Hopefully that will vindicate the plan behind the delay in other nations. We will see.

Wales gave hope that Delta could be stopped very soon by vaccination. These numbers are really bad in that context - it shows that exponential growth is still seen even at Wales' vaccination rates.

All UK nations are now growing ~exponentially (straight line on log plot) with similar doubling times. If anything, Wales is growing fastest, though the data is far too short and noisy to conclude that robustly.



Continental Europe should be very concerned by this data IMO. 60,000 travelling to Wembley seems like madness.

 

[Healdplace]

Zoe App data

This covers the last 48 hours btw

Predicted cases up 619 to 19, 121 - which is a slowing of 676 and 1109 in 24 hours each.

Ongoing symptomatic cases 242, 192 - which is up 12, 301 in two days and is again significantly lower than the previous rises of 8207 and 10, 340 in the previous 24 hours.

NW still in deep red and only behind Scotland which is far and away above anywhere else (2 or 3 times the NW levels)

 

[Healdplace]

Wales gave hope that Delta could be stopped very soon by vaccination. These numbers are really bad in that context - it shows that exponential growth is still seen even at Wales' vaccination rates.

All UK nations are now growing ~exponentially (straight line on log plot) with similar doubling times. If anything, Wales is growing fastest, though the data is far too short and noisy to conclude that robustly.

View attachment 19903

Continental Europe should be very concerned by this data IMO. 60,000 travelling to Wembley seems like madness.

Drakeford has noted that every day cases in Wales include a number that are actually from England - visitors to the North Wales coast from the North West seem to have spread it significantly in big hot spots like Llandudno, Rhyl and Prestatyn. And tested in Wales. Not in huge numbers but it is obviously partly how and why this has spread.

This may well have played into Nicola Sturgeon's actions.

The rise is steep but might be followed by a steeper fall.

Guess we can only wait and see and hope.

Especially as the UK government seem to be losing control and are now all but certain to open up in mid July regardless knowing people will do it anyway if they choose not to do it for them.

The way the tone on this thread has changed in recent days proves that.

Ironically my post on Nicola Sturgeon and the ban got expunged as too poliitical but was almost apolitical - as it was intended to be - versus many posts since.

Right now you cannot entirely separate politics from the pandemic as we edge towards finding the best way to live with what is happening. People have simply lost patience and will not wait for numbers to decide.

 

[Gremlin]

Zoe App data

This covers the last 48 hours btw

Predicted cases up 619 to 19, 121 - which is a slowing of 676 and 1109 in 24 hours each.

Ongoing symptomatic cases 242, 192 - which is up 12, 301 in two days and is again significantly lower than the previous rises of 8207 and 10, 340 in the previous 24 hours.

NW still in deep red and only behind Scotland which is far and away above anywhere else (2 or 3 times the NW levels)

So Nicola's travel ban between Scotland and Manchester is actually to protect Manchester, not Scotland?

 

[Marvin]

Drakeford has noted that every day cases in Wales include a number that are actually from England - visitors to the North Wales coast from the North West seem to have spread it significantly in big hot spots like Llandudno, Rhyl and Prestatyn. And tested in Wales. Not in huge numbers but it is obviously partly how and why this has spread.

This may well have played into Nicola Sturgeon's actions.

The rise is steep but might be followed by a steeper fall.

Guess we can only wait and see and hope.

Especially as the UK government seem to be losing control and are now all but certain to open up in mid July regardless knowing people will do it anyway if they choose not to do it for them.

The way the tone on this thread has changed in recent days proves that.

Ironically my post on Nicola Sturgeon and the ban got expunged as too poliitical but was almost apolitical - as it was intended to be - versus many posts since.

Right now you cannot entirely separate politics from the pandemic as we edge towards finding the best way to live with what is happening. People have simply lost patience and will not wait for numbers to decide.

Steep rises nationally but maybe evidence for growth choking off in the places where it was once rising fastest.

 

[Healdplace]

As for Wales and eberywhere else tbh - the rise in cases is less of a concern to the other data.

20,000 cases now is nothing like 20,000 cases was in January. That is really the thing to remember.

The chain between cases ad death has been broken - not entirely but very significantly - and THAT is realky the key to where we are.

This wave is inevitable and unstoppable and In some ways letting it rip might be the best way out. IF that has a low enough hospital stress level.

Think this will factor into where we go from here now. And it may have been close to being factored into opening up already. But we had to hope and see that the worst wave numer scenarios wer not likely to be met. And whilst we are obviously going to see cases rise - especially outside the NW and Scotland who likely will be coming out of this as other places still peak - we might yet cope.

Andy Burnham might be considering banning travel INTO Greater Manchester in a week or two.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Right now you cannot entirely separate politics from the pandemic as we edge towards finding the best way to live with what is happening. People have simply lost patience and will not wait for numbers to decide.

Politics has always been integral to the pandemic - the progress of the virus is directly linked to the policy response.

On people losing patience - I wouldn't read too much into the opinions of a few of us freaks on an internet forum. The public has been more willing to accept restrictions than the govt to impose them from the very start.

What does seem impossible to justify is some of the rank inconsistency now abounding. 60,000 people in stadiums but no socialising at a wedding. But none of this is surprising, given the events of the past 18 months.

Keep jabbing.

 

[Healdplace]

So Nicola's travel ban between Scotland and Manchester is actually to protect Manchester, not Scotland?

Was not the intention but is quite possibly the consequence.

Scotland i very clearly worse than Greater Manchester right now.

But first in first out is usually the way these waves work.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

IF that has a low enough hospital stress level.

It doesn't, I'm afraid.

If cases catch up with vaccinations in terms of yielding immunity, that's maybe 100,000 cases daily.

Current hospitalisation rate ~5%.

5,000 hospitalisations a day.

 

[Healdplace]

Politics has always been integral to the pandemic - the progress of the virus is directly linked to the policy response.

On people losing patience - I wouldn't read too much into the opinions of a few of us freaks on an internet forum. The public has been more willing to accept restrictions than the govt to impose them from the very start.

What does seem impossible to justify is some of the rank inconsistency now abounding. 60,000 people in stadiums but no socialising at a wedding. But none of this is surprising, given the events of the past 18 months.

Keep jabbing.

Oh I agree and I am not judging it from on here. Many people who have been very compliant have reached the point of seeing the hypocrisy of letting diplomats party for political get togethers or trial raves happening or people from around Europe to report or party on football being let into the UK to stop the prestige being taken to another European country and asking why should I bother. I have been double jabbed. We were told that was the plan. I am not losing another Summer.

They have to see that mood unfolding amongst even the more cautious.