Coronavirus (2021) thread

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More 'made up numbers'.....

Zoe App Predicted cases 19, 839 - up 718 in 24 hours.

Ongoing symptomatic cases 250, 392 - up 8200 - also up on the rises over the weekend.

These are bigger rises than past few days, sadly. But neither of the above growing exponentionally which is good.


Scotland and North West both edged up only slightly and much as yesterday as the two highest in UK.

But London and Midlands have risen more up into the darker pinks.

In Greater Manchester

Manchester top on 14, 696 predicted

Trafford on 12, 568

Tameside on 11, 368

Oldham on 10, 147

Bury on 7387, Salford 7009, Wigan 5014, Bolton 4388, Stockport 1999 and Rochdale 1219

Liverpool is the highrest in England now (and I think the UK) on 18, 088. Though Preston up on 14, 886 above Manchester now.
 
England hospital deaths:

11 with 6 from North West - last week was 16 with 9 NW - week before 6 with 1.....possibly a little spark of hope. We will see.

Certainly could have been worse.
 
Healdplace said:
Scotland data:

SADLY ANOTHER ALL TIME HIGHEST EVER CASES HERE JUST TOPPING YESTERDAY'S BY 30

5 deaths - was 4 last week

2999 cases - was 1317 last week

7.7% positivity - was 4.6% last week

177 patients - up 7 in day - was 140 last week

17 ventilated icu - down 1 in day - was 12 last week
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It genuinely does not bear thinking about if we didnt have the vaccines with these numbers. A modern day miracle.
 
England hospital deaths: - More detail

Regions:- East 1. London 0, Midlands 0, NE & Yorkshire 3 North West 6, South East 1, South West 0

The NW 6 were 3 in Lancashire (Preston etc), 2 in Manchester and 1 in Pennine Acute (Oldham/Rochdale etc)

1 death aged 20 - 39, 2 deaths aged 40 - 59, 6 deaths aged 60 - 79 and 2 deaths ages over 80.


No deaths were recorded today from yesterday. 5 were from 22 Jun (total now 6 after 2 days), 3 added for 21 Jun (total now 8 after 3 days) and 1 added to 20 Jun (total now 12 after 4 days). The others were 6 and 10 days ago.

With 12 the 20 Jun is now the highest death number after up to 5 days in England hospitals since 12 on 11 May.

The death numbers are edging upward slightly - that is certain. But they are not showing any dramatic increase as of yet and the NW is now contributing at least 50% of them every day.

Given the very high case numbers in the past month in the NW these death numbers are not really shooting up much.

There is a lag as deaths will always be the last measure to increase so we are seeing the result of cases from maybe 3 weeks ago NOT the most recent big escalations.

So we are bound to see the NW numbers edge up a bit and other regions start to do so now their cases are rising.

But there is good reason to think the numbers are not going to increase exponentionally based on the early data we have so far.

The link between cases and deaths is all but broken and is most certainly severely mitigated.
 
Northern Ireland data:

Could be worse here happily. That Irish Sea sure helped slow this down. Hopefully long enough to get ahead,

0 deaths - was 0 last week

198 cases - was 179 last week

6.6% positivity - was 7.4% last wk - first fall anywhere in a while.

3 care home outbreaks - was 3 yesterday and last week

1178 weekly cases - was 1143 yesterday & 847 last week

18 patients - was 17 yesterday & 16 last week

Ventilated 0 - was 0 yesterday & last week.
 
N Ireland past 7 days total cases by age range:

0 - 19 (430) 36.6%

20 - 39 (473) 40.2%

40 - 59 (226) 19.2%

60 - 79 (44) 3.7%

80 PLUS (4) 0.3%


Another day, same story - only 1 in 25 of the most vulnerable (over 60 are catching Covid and more than three quarters under 40 are. Less vaccinated and less vulnerable.

Put these together and you get what we see - many more cases but hardly any more deaths or serious illness stressing out hospitals.

This data is why despite what look like fast rising case numbers we may still open up mid July. Because the link between cases, hospitals and death that was so clear and dangerous in past waves has been visibly shattered by the vaccines.

Sorry in advance for posting this 'bullshit' or is it only defined as being that here if it is numbers that are not liked?
 
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grunge said:
Even so those models would have been way off as they were based on the original strain, Not the Delta strain with a doubled r0 and being twice as likely to put you in the hospital ( scotish study from a week or so ago ).
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and the key factor which is a huge reduction from 1-2% case fatality to 0.1-0.2% with the delta variant from the PHE data
 
Total deaths today with out of hospital England to come = 16.

It was 20 last Thursday. That became 19 in all settings later. 13 of them from England.


Total cases today from the three nations with England to come = 3635.

It was 1636 last week. Less than half.

England last week added 9371 cases to the 1636 to total 11,007.

If England doubles today we will top 20,000. Hopefully it will not. And is unlikely to do so just about. But very likely to be well up and in five figures.
 
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twosips said:


ignoring all the conspiracy theory nonsense that has decided to pop up again, this is actually the only stuff that matters. Good news.
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It's starting to look like there's a consistent drop in hospitalisation rates coming through, isn't it?

Much needed and very good news if it continues.

Would be interesting to see an analysis of ages & vaccination status to see if there's something consistent driving it.
 
North West down 302 on day to 3318.

Greater Manchester was down by less than expected - just 65 of that 302 to 1541.


Week to week it was a little better for GM.

North West up by 460 from 2858 last week

GM up by exactly 200 of that 460 which is slightly below expected 50% rise of 230.



Not as good a day for GM relative to the NW as recent days.

Indeed only two boroughs were under 100 - and they were Trafford and Rochdale both on 96.

This is the highest number to be the 'best' in GM in several months.

Wigan topped 200 and Salford was one off doing the same.

Manchester at 378 its second highest in past few months.


Could have been worse but not as good as many recent days. Pretty much everywhere up week to week.

Bolton by 6 to 127.
 
Tonster said:
If we didn’t have the vaccines with this variant we’d still be locked down
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We have had a lucky escape. Covid could have been much more deadly across all age groups and without early vaccines the death toll would have been much higher. It's a context worth considering when people complain about missing a few foreign holidays.
 
England hospital data:

Breakdown of regional numbers. Quite promising for the North West.

If other regions follow the NW pattern in coming weeks I think we can feel reassured there is not going to be a big hospital numbers increase.



NW admissions on Tuesday (data is always 2 days old on admissions) were 42 out of the 182

Last week it was 58 out of 188. So a signiificant wk to wk fall in the region.

Midlands and London were pretty flat week to week.

The biggest rise was in Yorkshire (where cases have been going up all week).

From 21 to 40 wk to wk - indeed almost being the highest admissions then which the NW has been now for weeks.



England patients are up 152 wk to wk from 1122.

That is a FALL from an increase of 216 in the previous week. Very hopeful.



Unfortunately the NW rose today but only by 7 to 444 versus 388 last Thursday. A weekly rise of 56.

This is significantly better than the previous week where numbers rose from 271 to 388 - a rise of 117.

7 by the NW was the highest rise today though others were around the same 5 or 6 - in many areas including Yorkshire and London.



Ventilators sadly up 13 to 240 versus 197 last week

North West was up by 5 unfortunately to 89 versus 79 last week - although that is significantly less than the rise the week before from 46 to 79

The biggest rise here was for London - up 6 to 67 in the day. That is a rise of 14 from 53 last week - an increase here on the rise of 7 from 46 the week before.



As I say these numbers are quite encouraging I would suggest. Because if they are falling already so clearly in the NW when other regions join in - if they do - from rising variant cases - then it looks promising they will follow the same path - perhaps even better if they are later and vaccinations more advanced by then.

In sum that infers we will not be overwhelmed by this wave.
 
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