roubaixtuesday
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The PHE stats out today suggest about half of current o50s deaths are double jabbed, so that's probably as good a guess as any for these.
Coronavirus (2021) thread
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The PHE stats out today suggest about half of current o50s deaths are double jabbed, so that's probably as good a guess as any for these.
Healdplace
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Did you read my reply above?
Invisible Man's Bandage
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And possibly most or all with other conditions.
Last week a report stated that Covid wasn’t the primary cause of death in 40% of UK fatalities. With the number of deaths so low now I’d expect that proportion to be higher.
Healdplace
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Yes it is just not as simple as double jabbed and still died. No point in having it. As some might believe on seeing the numbers. Understandably as it seems logical.
As has been discussed in here already today from the data out on the numbers from hospital you can easily be mislead into panic at seeing the deaths of people you assume have been double jabbed due to age even if they actually were double jabbed. Which is not even a given.
The ones who die tend to have underlying health conditions lowering immunity. Always have from day 1. There are just more of those over 60 for obvious reasons.
The vaccines are saving many of them but no vaccine will save them all. Happily it IS stopping the majority of them even catching it as the data conclusively and overwhelmingly shows.
Look at the age range on the previous page of the total cases in N Ireland in the past week and see how many over 60s even caught it let alone were at risk of dying after catching it.
Just 48 out of 1221.
If you do not catch it or it is signifcantly mitigated THAT is the key not the reality that some people will always be unlucky.
We see maybe 10 people doyble jabbed dying. We do NOT see the 1000 who would have died had rthey NOT been double jabbed. Because they are in the vast majority who never caught it so never went to hospital or died.
In every wave up to now if only a handful of people were dying each day as at present we would have been relieved.
These are at present at that level with many many more cases around and yet the same death numbers we were getting before we even went into the first lockdown 15 months ago.
As has been discussed in here already today from the data out on the numbers from hospital you can easily be mislead into panic at seeing the deaths of people you assume have been double jabbed due to age even if they actually were double jabbed. Which is not even a given.
The ones who die tend to have underlying health conditions lowering immunity. Always have from day 1. There are just more of those over 60 for obvious reasons.
The vaccines are saving many of them but no vaccine will save them all. Happily it IS stopping the majority of them even catching it as the data conclusively and overwhelmingly shows.
Look at the age range on the previous page of the total cases in N Ireland in the past week and see how many over 60s even caught it let alone were at risk of dying after catching it.
Just 48 out of 1221.
If you do not catch it or it is signifcantly mitigated THAT is the key not the reality that some people will always be unlucky.
We see maybe 10 people doyble jabbed dying. We do NOT see the 1000 who would have died had rthey NOT been double jabbed. Because they are in the vast majority who never caught it so never went to hospital or died.
In every wave up to now if only a handful of people were dying each day as at present we would have been relieved.
These are at present at that level with many many more cases around and yet the same death numbers we were getting before we even went into the first lockdown 15 months ago.
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grunge
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You would hope so but I know a few that are not.
ayrshire_blue
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55 cases amongst over 65s in the 1700 odd cases in Scotland today. All be it that comes with a caveat as the 1700 figure is suspected to be 800-1100 low due to a processing issue as Healdplace has already commented on. So the 55 number will presumably be low too but by how much I've no idea.
Here's a graph showing a huge decline, the unfortunate news is this is the rate of vaccinations. I've no idea what's going on but 14.5k first doses and 15k second doses only today, and this pattern is following a downward trend just when we really need to be accelerating things.
Here's a graph showing a huge decline, the unfortunate news is this is the rate of vaccinations. I've no idea what's going on but 14.5k first doses and 15k second doses only today, and this pattern is following a downward trend just when we really need to be accelerating things.
Healdplace
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Three nations cases today are 2312 - with the caveat of those missing Scottish cases that may be as many as 1000 atop.
Last week the number was 1291.
Last week the number was 1291.
Healdplace
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18 all settings deaths. It was 11 last week.
15, 810 cases (was 10, 476 last Friday)
From 1, 052, 825 pillar 1 & 2 tests - down about 92K on yesterday. So a positivity increase.
Though 30 K more than for the 10, 476 cases last week.
Also recall the missing Scottish cases before celebrating this as a fall on yesterday. It almost certainly is not. But is fairly flat on yesterday.
England cases are UP by 430 day to day to 13, 498 v 9185 last week.
So that is a 50% rise on the week.
15, 810 cases (was 10, 476 last Friday)
From 1, 052, 825 pillar 1 & 2 tests - down about 92K on yesterday. So a positivity increase.
Though 30 K more than for the 10, 476 cases last week.
Also recall the missing Scottish cases before celebrating this as a fall on yesterday. It almost certainly is not. But is fairly flat on yesterday.
England cases are UP by 430 day to day to 13, 498 v 9185 last week.
So that is a 50% rise on the week.
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Healdplace
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GM highlights
Not a particularly good day again for Greater Manchester. Though it was well below the 50% rise in the NW region both day to day and week to week.
Cases up 31 on yesterday to 1572. And up 266 from last Friday. ~
NW equivalent rises 122 daily and 686 week to week.
Tameside and Bury the only ones sub 100 and both in the 90s.
Salford and Wigan both in the 200s - though only just in both cases.
Manchester still high at 371.
Even Stockport had its highest number in months - 126.
So a lot of weekly Pop score rises unfortunately.
Bolton at 118 is down both day to day and week to week and is actully seriously closing in on going from the worst in GM to the best as it continues to inch down and Stockport's good days seem to have inched upward.
Mind you Stockport still caught up another chunk on Trafford in the lowest Pop Score over the entire pandemic (which from day 1 in March 2020 has been between these two boroughs). As Trafford continues to score big.
The Trafford lead which was 200 a couple of weeks ago is down to 90.
SIX GM boroughs had more cases than Bolton today. The most in one day since it has turned things around.
Not a particularly good day again for Greater Manchester. Though it was well below the 50% rise in the NW region both day to day and week to week.
Cases up 31 on yesterday to 1572. And up 266 from last Friday. ~
NW equivalent rises 122 daily and 686 week to week.
Tameside and Bury the only ones sub 100 and both in the 90s.
Salford and Wigan both in the 200s - though only just in both cases.
Manchester still high at 371.
Even Stockport had its highest number in months - 126.
So a lot of weekly Pop score rises unfortunately.
Bolton at 118 is down both day to day and week to week and is actully seriously closing in on going from the worst in GM to the best as it continues to inch down and Stockport's good days seem to have inched upward.
Mind you Stockport still caught up another chunk on Trafford in the lowest Pop Score over the entire pandemic (which from day 1 in March 2020 has been between these two boroughs). As Trafford continues to score big.
The Trafford lead which was 200 a couple of weeks ago is down to 90.
SIX GM boroughs had more cases than Bolton today. The most in one day since it has turned things around.
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roubaixtuesday
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So, UK cases continue to rise exponentially, as they have for several weeks now since mid-late May, with a doubling time of ~two weeks.
As @Healdplace @ayrshire_blue and others excellently highlight, there are major local differences, but at the big picture for the UK, this has been pretty consistent for a month.
In that month, roughly 10% of the population have been vaccinated (doses equivalent to ~20% of the population). That's made no discernible impact on the growth of the virus, disappointingly. Hospitalisations maybe starting to show a further drop relative to cases, which would be very good news if consistent, as vaccinations probably hit that harder than cases.
But we *do* know that the vaccines work - there's no suggestion from any of the data of anything other than high efficacy, for two doses at least. So either it's just in the noise of the data, or people's behaviour has relaxed enough to counteract the vaccine effect net over the last month.
I still think that if we can vaccinate at a high rate (500,000/day or so), we should see that exponential growth tail off. and hopeful that we'll be close to a peak by late July. We'll see.
As @Healdplace @ayrshire_blue and others excellently highlight, there are major local differences, but at the big picture for the UK, this has been pretty consistent for a month.
In that month, roughly 10% of the population have been vaccinated (doses equivalent to ~20% of the population). That's made no discernible impact on the growth of the virus, disappointingly. Hospitalisations maybe starting to show a further drop relative to cases, which would be very good news if consistent, as vaccinations probably hit that harder than cases.
But we *do* know that the vaccines work - there's no suggestion from any of the data of anything other than high efficacy, for two doses at least. So either it's just in the noise of the data, or people's behaviour has relaxed enough to counteract the vaccine effect net over the last month.
I still think that if we can vaccinate at a high rate (500,000/day or so), we should see that exponential growth tail off. and hopeful that we'll be close to a peak by late July. We'll see.
M18CTID
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Fair points and no real arguments with that but I was just commenting on Hancock’s character in general.
TheBlueDune
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Just what does he need to do to get fired?
BBC story -
In May last year, epidemiologist Professor Neil Ferguson resigned from the government's scientific advisory group (SAGE) after it emerged he had broken lockdown rules when a woman he was reportedly in a relationship with visited his home.
At the time Mr Hancock called these actions "extraordinary", adding that social distancing rules were "there for everyone" and "deadly serious".
I've never known a government before where ministers can do shady deals and break rules they set up with total impunity. It shows total contempt for the electorate and is a throwback to the toffs doing exactly what they want but hammering the serfs for daring to do the same. It's bloody sickening.
W
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worsleyweb
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He has grafted and I believe genuinely done his best but deserves sacking for this. Lost any credibility.
Why did the government delay the report on the test events that proved a huge success, with very few infections as a result?
It is this hiding, delaying and covering up of stuff that is fueling conspiracy theories. I believe these figures were only released after the entertainment industry threatened legal action.
It is this hiding, delaying and covering up of stuff that is fueling conspiracy theories. I believe these figures were only released after the entertainment industry threatened legal action.
Healdplace
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England hospital data:
Mixed news - though mostly positive.
Admissions (2 days old recall) 214 - highest in this new wave. And NW also back up from 42 to 60 on the day.
It was 177 with 55 from the NW seven days earlier.
London, Midlands, NE & Yorkshire and South West also up across the same 7 days to Wednesday.
Today though numbers are more encouraging.
Patients up just 10 to 1284. Seven days ago it was up 48 to 1170 - making the week to week rise of 114 the fourth straight fall in the increase this week.
Ventilators also fell by 2 to 238. versis 210 last week. The lowest wk to wk gap this week.
In the North West the good news continues:- Patients down 15 to 429. The ONLY region to FALL today.
Last week it ROSE by 23 to 411. That week to week rise of just 18 is the lowest in a week or two.
Ventilators in the NW akso FELL by 2 to 87 - up from just 83 last Friday. The smallest week to week rise in the past week or two.
These are pretty encouraging given the high case numbers in the NW all week though there are signs these have plateaued.
It may be that the NW is not far off the peak of this wave regionally.
Though, of course, other regions are much further back but also have had those weeks to ramp up vaccinations to hopefully mitigate their rises.
THESE REGIONS ARE:-
East today up 6 patients to 69 and up 1 ventilator to 10 v 60 & 10 last week.
London today stayed at 286 and FELL by 5 ventilators to 62 v 289 and 55 last week
Midlands up 5 patients to 189 with ventilators staying at 40 v 168 and 24 last week.
NE & Yorkshire up 1 patient to 183 and 1 ventilator to 26 v 149 & 21 last week
South East up 6 patients to 66 and ventilators stayed at 5 v 59 and 12 last week
South West up 9 patients to 62 and 3 ventilatirs to 8 v 36 and 5 last week
Apart from South West this is generally very hopeful data and SW is such a small area even at a very high level for itself it is unlikely to go into really big numbers.
All in all there is little sign here of the risiong cases yet translating into a real problem for the NHS and good signs the NW has started to reverse its problems.
Mixed news - though mostly positive.
Admissions (2 days old recall) 214 - highest in this new wave. And NW also back up from 42 to 60 on the day.
It was 177 with 55 from the NW seven days earlier.
London, Midlands, NE & Yorkshire and South West also up across the same 7 days to Wednesday.
Today though numbers are more encouraging.
Patients up just 10 to 1284. Seven days ago it was up 48 to 1170 - making the week to week rise of 114 the fourth straight fall in the increase this week.
Ventilators also fell by 2 to 238. versis 210 last week. The lowest wk to wk gap this week.
In the North West the good news continues:- Patients down 15 to 429. The ONLY region to FALL today.
Last week it ROSE by 23 to 411. That week to week rise of just 18 is the lowest in a week or two.
Ventilators in the NW akso FELL by 2 to 87 - up from just 83 last Friday. The smallest week to week rise in the past week or two.
These are pretty encouraging given the high case numbers in the NW all week though there are signs these have plateaued.
It may be that the NW is not far off the peak of this wave regionally.
Though, of course, other regions are much further back but also have had those weeks to ramp up vaccinations to hopefully mitigate their rises.
THESE REGIONS ARE:-
East today up 6 patients to 69 and up 1 ventilator to 10 v 60 & 10 last week.
London today stayed at 286 and FELL by 5 ventilators to 62 v 289 and 55 last week
Midlands up 5 patients to 189 with ventilators staying at 40 v 168 and 24 last week.
NE & Yorkshire up 1 patient to 183 and 1 ventilator to 26 v 149 & 21 last week
South East up 6 patients to 66 and ventilators stayed at 5 v 59 and 12 last week
South West up 9 patients to 62 and 3 ventilatirs to 8 v 36 and 5 last week
Apart from South West this is generally very hopeful data and SW is such a small area even at a very high level for itself it is unlikely to go into really big numbers.
All in all there is little sign here of the risiong cases yet translating into a real problem for the NHS and good signs the NW has started to reverse its problems.
Tim of the Oak
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His bigger crime was ignoring his officials and wasting £10bn on the wrong type of track and trace App. It now appears that there may have been a conflict of interest affecting this decision.
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BlueHammer85
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lost any credibility without this incident.
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