Coronavirus (2021) thread

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mat said:
I posted it in that clever fuckers spirit more than attacking them for doing so.

This is what pisses me off with our education system. They don't encourage problem solving and critical thinking. Just want us smart enough to do shit without questioning it.
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yeah, I suspected you did I just doubled down on it.
 
mat said:
I posted it in that clever fuckers spirit more than attacking them for doing so.

This is what pisses me off with our education system. They don't encourage problem solving and critical thinking. Just want us smart enough to do shit without questioning it.
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So how’d they figure out how to fool the tests then?
 
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Healdplace said:
22 all settings deaths

27, 989 cases

From 1.24 million tests
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By my calculations we are now at higher than exponential growth- i.e cases are growing faster than anyone predicted. Easy to see why it took off like it did in India.

Chinese engineering in action.
 
Bolton now officially the best in GM Overtook Stockport today with 'lowest' pop score - though the trades description act is probably investigating as their numbers are both not low.

And despite losing best Pop Score to Bolton today Stockprt overhauled that 200 lead Trafford had over it on best Pop Score across the pandemic,

So Bolton has lowest Pop Score this week and Stockport lowest across the pandemic on the same day,

Only Trafford and Oldham actually rose today from yesterday. Everyone else down a bit. But not a lot in either direction.

Bury had the lowest score on 119
 
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roubaixtuesday said:
Interested to hear a rationale for that, given that cases are rising exponentially, have been for weeks, and show no current signs of slowing whatever.

I mean, I'd Like to believe it, but reality and all...
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I should have said 'near the peak' admittedly.

In around a fortnight the Euros will be over and the kids will be breaking up from school. We'll see cases fall, as what we're being told (if we can believe it) is that the cases are largely kids spreading through schools and younger adults who're socialising in homes watching the football. We're also still smashing out vaccines and the younger generations who're spreading it are going to build up some resistance following the first jabs.

By the end of July I'd be utterly shocked if our cases aren't reducing quickly. Whereas in the EU, we'll probably see Delta kick off.
 
Manchester33 said:
I should have said 'near the peak' admittedly.

In around a fortnight the Euros will be over and the kids will be breaking up from school. We'll see cases fall, as what we're being told (if we can believe it) is that the cases are largely kids spreading through schools and younger adults who're socialising in homes watching the football. We're also still smashing out vaccines and the younger generations who're spreading it are going to build up some resistance following the first jabs.

By the end of July I'd be utterly shocked if our cases aren't reducing quickly. Whereas in the EU, we'll probably see Delta kick off.
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Scotland schools broke up a week ago and we got knocked out the euros around Christmas time so if your theory is correct then things should start to show here in the next week or so. I'm not convinced.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Cases are a leading indicator. They're currently doubling on a 10 day basis. I think that's relevant.

Hospitalisations are not "as low as they have ever been" - they are treble their May minimum.

You can debate how significant these numbers are, what the right (if any) policy response is, but let's deal with reality.
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And most simply have difficulty breathing and are home after 5 days after use of an oxygen CPAP machine.
 
Also worth noting that the link between cases and hospitalisations has drastically been reduced. On the 14th of December the 7-day-average for cases was 28,973.6. The hospital admissions then were averaging 1,910 (over 7 days) at that point.

Todays cases seem high because we associate that with 2k hospital admissions per day. But we're averaging roughly 250 admissions today (13% compared to the similar case numbers pre-vaccine rollout).

Of that 13% that still go to the hospital, the vast majority are unvaccinated (still hundreds of thousands of vaccines going into arms every day). We're getting better at treating them and their stays are shorter, and chances of survival are higher than they were previously.

There are some posters on here scaremongering IMO. We'd need to see cases approaching 100k per day to have a similar impact on the NHS. I don't see that happening, we're told the vaccine reduced transmission and the majority of adults are vaccinated now. I could be wrong, but I just don't see the scary side to this now.
 
ayrshire_blue said:
Scotland schools broke up a week ago and we got knocked out the euros around Christmas time so if your theory is correct then things should start to show here in the next week or so. I'm not convinced.
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There's clear evidence that Scotlands participation in the Euros has increased the spread of COVID. There was a lot in the news recently about Scottish fans spreading it amongst themselves in London.

I think (and obviously hoping) that we see a reduction of cases in kids. Perhaps it might take another week or two before holidays kick in.
 
BLUEMATT23 said:
My Dad went in 3 years ago to Salford Royal for several weeks and never came out.
I was disgusted at the facilities and the lack of care towards him.
I will never forgive them.
And the government talks about levelling up?
Fucking laughable, Were like a 3rd world country in the North West.
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The hospitals are hardly great down here too. I know having had to use three of them. I don't believe it is a North-South thing.
 
BLUEMATT23 said:
My Dad went in 3 years ago to Salford Royal for several weeks and never came out.
I was disgusted at the facilities and the lack of care towards him.
I will never forgive them.
And the government talks about levelling up?
Fucking laughable, Were like a 3rd world country in the North West.
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A friend of mine had a fall last week, 2 hours for an ambulance to turn up, unfortunately she died in hospital.
 
denislawsbackheel said:
And how many of them do we have ?
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Presumably enough to cope with far, far more cases than we're reporting today. At the peak, we were seeing 4.5k hospital admissions. Today we're seeing 250. If we don't have the capacity, then the people running the NHS should be going to prison for gross negligence.
 
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Manchester33 said:
Also worth noting that the link between cases and hospitalisations has drastically been reduced. On the 14th of December the 7-day-average for cases was 28,973.6. The hospital admissions then were averaging 1,910 (over 7 days) at that point.

Todays cases seem high because we associate that with 2k hospital admissions per day. But we're averaging roughly 250 admissions today (13% compared to the similar case numbers pre-vaccine rollout).

Of that 13% that still go to the hospital, the vast majority are unvaccinated (still hundreds of thousands of vaccines going into arms every day). We're getting better at treating them and their stays are shorter, and chances of survival are higher than they were previously.

There are some posters on here scaremongering IMO. We'd need to see cases approaching 100k per day to have a similar impact on the NHS. I don't see that happening, we're told the vaccine reduced transmission and the majority of adults are vaccinated now. I could be wrong, but I just don't see the scary side to this now.
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I agree with some of this but your final point isn’t totally true. This time round we are trying to maintain the range of NHS services. To do that we can only cope with a percentage of the patients hospitalised with Covid we had in previous waves. I don’t know what the figure is but to sustain the range of NHS services we might only be able to cope with say a quarter or a third of hospitalisations for previous waves.

In that situation 13% and rising is a cause for concern for the decision makers. It might be that everything reopens on the 19th July and we live with the risk. I don’t have a view either way. It’s a question of do the decision makers take the risk. Personally, I would love to be back watching football in full stadia but the cost of that might be a range of hospital services suffering.
 
Manchester33 said:
Presumably enough to cope with far, far more cases than we're reporting today. At the peak, we were seeing 4.5k hospital admissions. Today we're seeing 250. If we don't have the capacity, then the people running the NHS should be going to prison for gross negligence.
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thre are far more actual hospitals in the uk than people needing hospitalisation through Covid at the moment .

www.promedical.co.uk

How many hospitals are in the UK? - ProMedical

The actual number, correct as at September 2019, is that there are 1,257 hospitals in the UK. This number includes the NHS Trust-managed hospitals and the private hospitals that are currently in use. Read on for more.
www.promedical.co.uk www.promedical.co.uk

In terms of levelling up and the 25% higher fatality rate in gtr manchester there are only 110 hospitals in the whole of the north west of England.

compare scotland has 279 hospitals . London 134.
 
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