Coronavirus (2021) thread

[BlueAnorak]

Also worth noting that the link between cases and hospitalisations has drastically been reduced. On the 14th of December the 7-day-average for cases was 28,973.6. The hospital admissions then were averaging 1,910 (over 7 days) at that point.

Todays cases seem high because we associate that with 2k hospital admissions per day. But we're averaging roughly 250 admissions today (13% compared to the similar case numbers pre-vaccine rollout).

Of that 13% that still go to the hospital, the vast majority are unvaccinated (still hundreds of thousands of vaccines going into arms every day). We're getting better at treating them and their stays are shorter, and chances of survival are higher than they were previously.

There are some posters on here scaremongering IMO. We'd need to see cases approaching 100k per day to have a similar impact on the NHS. I don't see that happening, we're told the vaccine reduced transmission and the majority of adults are vaccinated now. I could be wrong, but I just don't see the scary side to this now.

Over two thirds of those currently hospitalized are discharged after 7 days. It was more like 28 days on average back in Jan.

 

[Manchester33]

I agree with some of this but your final point isn’t totally true. This time round we are trying to maintain the range of NHS services. To do that we can only cope with a percentage of the patients hospitalised with Covid we had in previous waves. I don’t know what the figure is but to sustain the range of NHS services we might only be able to cope with say a quarter or a third of hospitalisations for previous waves.

In that situation 13% and rising is a cause for concern for the decision makers. It might be that everything reopens on the 19th July and we live with the risk. I don’t have a view either way. It’s a question of do the decision makers take the risk. Personally, I would love to be back watching football in full stadia but the cost of that might be a range of hospital services suffering.

I have some thoughts about this (which might be bullshit, I'm sure someone else will know more than me).

The average person being admitted to covid today spends less time in hospital, they're often less ill than they were previously too.

The range of services carried out by the NHS will be prioritised. Non-essential services would be delayed before essential ones.

It's likely the issue you've described would be a regional problem, rather than bringing the majority of NHS trusts to a stand-still simultaneously.

If we could handpick a time of year for this wave it would be now. It's better to let the herd immunity build before the season flu kicks in.

I'm just trying to be positive. I think everyone should be careful in their day to day lives and we should monitor cases. But I'm more making the point that the headlines of 30k cases today isn't as scary as what we're being led to believe.

 

[Manchester33]

The hospitals are hardly great down here too. I know having had to use three of them. I don't believe it is a North-South thing.

It's just a '10 years of austerity' thing.

 

[jazzy]

It's just a '10 years of austerity' thing.

No it been a lack of building and maintenance for the last 50 years

 

[ayrshire_blue]

There's clear evidence that Scotlands participation in the Euros has increased the spread of COVID. There was a lot in the news recently about Scottish fans spreading it amongst themselves in London.

I think (and obviously hoping) that we see a reduction of cases in kids. Perhaps it might take another week or two before holidays kick in.

The Scots came back from London almost 2 weeks ago, so if we haven't already seen that root cause petering out then we should do very soon, likewise with schools. I'm just not overly confident that's all it is. As I say, a week or so should tell us and if things don't change then that can pretty much be ruled out.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

I have some thoughts about this (which might be bullshit, I'm sure someone else will know more than me).

The average person being admitted to covid today spends less time in hospital, they're often less ill than they were previously too.

The range of services carried out by the NHS will be prioritised. Non-essential services would be delayed before essential ones.

It's likely the issue you've described would be a regional problem, rather than bringing the majority of NHS trusts to a stand-still simultaneously.

If we could handpick a time of year for this wave it would be now. It's better to let the herd immunity build before the season flu kicks in.

I'm just trying to be positive. I think everyone should be careful in their day to day lives and we should monitor cases. But I'm more making the point that the headlines of 30k cases today isn't as scary as what we're being led to believe.

I was chatting to somebody at a training course (today) who said her neighbours were having house parties until 5am.!I’m all for fun but this recklessness will be driving the rate of increase in cases.

I’m off to the rugby league tonight and was playing 5 a side, followed by a couple of pints last night. There’s loads of flexibility for people within the rules. If more people had just stick a bit closer to the rules, I would be more confident that we would be looking at full grounds for next season. The Government might open up everything they can anyway but the high case number will kibosh a lot of people’s international plans, as other Governments will follow the news from here.

I hope hospitals don’t get overwhelmed and I’ve got confidence in the vaccination programme. We were too slow to respond to the Indian variant, so we really needed good compliance to manage the risks. Fingers crossed things will get back to pretty much normal from 19th July.

 

[Healdplace]

England hospital data

283 admissions Tuesday - up from 182 just 7 days before, Highest in months.


Numbers clearly escalating as all regions are now catching up whereas North West is like Bolton flattening off - not rising but not falling.

Just 71 of those 283 from the NW versus 42 the week before. That is little different % wise. But is fr other regions well up.

Yorkshire was just one less on 70 and London had doubled to 51 from 26.

Patients in today up 60 to 1560 - 306 up on last Thursday- which was up just 152 on the week before. We are going to see these numbers rise as several regions at once tick up at least until NW starts to fall not just stall,

NW today was up 9 to 498 v 444 last week - a rise of 54 - it was up 56 the week before and 117 the week before.

Other regions in day East down 4 to 79 v 65, London up 15 to 329 v 286, Midlands up 3 to 229 v 184, NE & Yorkshire up 32 to 254 v 182 (clearly becoming the next epicentre unsurprisingly), South East up 3 to 88 v 60 ans South West up 2 to 83 v 53


Ventilators are up 15 to 279 v 240 last week where it was up 13 from 227

North West again here OK and stays at 91 v 89 last week lowest rise in a month, Previous week up 10.

Other regions East up 2 to 16 v 9, London up 3 to 74 v 67, Midlands up 2 to 41 v 40, NE & Yorkshire up 5 to 34 v 25, South East up 3 to 15 v 5 and South West stays at 8 -v 5 .

Easy to see what I mean. North West is flat and numbers are going up nationally because other regions now following its path a month or so ago,


Other nations

N Ireland 21 patients & 2 ventilated from 20 & 2

Scotland 275 patients & 16 ventilated from 235 & 19

Wales 39 patients & 2 ventilated from 41 & 2 yesterday

So total here 335 patients v 296 yesterday AND ventilators 20 v 23 yesterday


So the UK numbers now stand at:

Patients 1895 - was 1514 last week

Ventilated 299 - was 259 last week

 

[discopop]

By my calculations we are now at higher than exponential growth- i.e cases are growing faster than anyone predicted. Easy to see why it took off like it did in India.

Chinese engineering in action.

Fuck off with the conspiracy theory shite.

 

[BlueHammer85]

I was chatting to somebody at a training course (today) who said her neighbours were having house parties until 5am.!I’m all for fun but this recklessness will be driving the rate of increase in cases.

About 20/25 people in my local footie team, all go round each other’s house for the Euros and beer it up all night.

 

[Healdplace]

Cases across the regions:


Change in last 24 hrs V seven days ago



SOUTH


East UP 480 to 1502 V 730 - big rise here doublinf=g

London UP 113 to 2705 V 1731 - up but modest rise here

South East UP 405 to 2735 V 1231 - more than doubled here

South West UP 152 to 1767 V 1224


This is clearly no longer one region only (NW) - hence the recent big jumps across the board






MIDLANDS



East UP 486 to 1861 V 779

West UP 456 to 2435 V 1301


Much the same here going upwards





NORTH



North East UP 104 to 2496 V 1108 - again up to what I think may be the biggest numbers here ever

Under a month ago NE was sub ONE HUNDRED every day. This is over 25 times higher. Huge increase Thanks to Delta.



Yorkshire UP 163 to 2810 V 1511 Another doubling



AND

NORTH WEST DOWN 490 to 4366 V 3318 - Yes I DO mean down and quite a bit.

The only region on the right track today,



Past weeks NW numbers are 3318 - 3440 - 3693 - 2763 - 4168 - 3870 - 4856 - 4366

Equivalent NW numbers a week earlier 2858 - 2754 - 2538 - 2107 - 2441 - 2790 - 3620 - 3318

GM numbers in past week 1541 - 1572 - 1579 - 1280 - 1941- 1619 -2120 - 1895

 

[Craig]

About 20/25 people in my local footie team, all go round each other’s house for the Euros and beer it up all night.

Imagine what it will be like everywhere this Satu and then probably the Sunday after too

 

[Claytop]

About 20/25 people in my local footie team, all go round each other’s house for the Euros and beer it up all night.

I personally wouldn’t do it but it’s been over a year now so not surprised people are doing it really, especially if they’ve been vaccinated.

 

[Healdplace]

Full GM details:


Total cases 1895 - down 225 on Yesterday - from NW fall of 490,

So GM down by under half the NW fall of 245 but only slightly.

Wk to wk UP 354 when the NW rose by 1048 So GM is doing much better here well below expected rise of around 524.



BOROUGH / CASES TODAY / V YESTERDAY / V LAST WEEK



BOLTON 122 / DOWN 5 / DOWN 5

BURY 119 / DOWN 13 / UP 14

MANCHESTER 435 / DOWN 19 / UP 57

OLDHAM 214 / UP 4 / UP 105

ROCHDALE 130 / DOWN 110 / UP 34

SALFORD 180 / DOWN 19 / DOWN 19

STOCKPORT 141 / DOWN 34 / UP 40

TAMESIDE 139 / DOWN 2 / UP 43

TRAFFORD 167 / UP 2 / UP 71

WIGAN 248 / DOWN 29 / UP 26


A better day for GM. Most still up week to week but not by as much and all bar Oldham and Trafford (both relly struggling at present) down day to day.

Bury lowest score on 119 - one of the highest low number in months but lower than yesterday.

Bolton again had the best day with more normal data and down bith day to day and week to week as was Salford,

Will now be well ahead of Stockport as the lowest Pop Score in GM. So from worst to best in 6 weeks.

Stockport though was down enough to eat away the last overall Pop Score points that Trafford had over it as best in GM across the pandemic, Fro 200 to below nil in just over 2 weeks.

So good days for both Bolton and Stockport and OK days for several others notably Rochdale down 110 day to day! Very unusual fall.

As I said yesterday about Bolton's 127 and true of today's 122 as well - these are high numbers by its standards. Normal numbers here would be at worst a third of that. And Bolton has plateaued and is not falling. Just not rising.

We cannot rest easy until the top of the mountain turns into the slide down the other side.

 

[Healdplace]

Greater Manchester

Weekly total cases:-




Bury 755, Bolton 822 , Tameside 823 Stockport 886, Trafford 968, , Rochdale 975, Oldham 1124,
Salford 1269. Wigan 1604, Manchester 2790.



Manchester, Salford and Wigan all over 4 figures weekly and climbed a lot joined by Oldham after a run of bad numbers foreseen by Zoe a few days ago. Rochdale and a struggling TRafford not far behind either,

But really nor is anyone safe fron four figures.

Bolton is doing really well and has gone from worst to second lowest cases and not far off best in GM any day now. The two neighbours which spiked first in GM - Bury and Bolton - now vying for lowest cases.

Gives hope to the rest they are just behind that curve,

 

[Tonster]

I personally wouldn’t do it but it’s been over a year now so not surprised people are doing it really, especially if they’ve been vaccinated.

I’d probably do it if only I could find more than 5 mates :-(

 

[ayrshire_blue]

I don't know if anyone here follows Andrew Lilico on twitter or other platforms, he works for the daily telegraph which isn't usually my cup of tea but he has his say on Covid, restrictions, modelling all of which I see as balanced and fair.

Which is why I've linked to this thread.

I think his opinion here will be shared by many throughout the country, but may be seen as controversial. He's basically suggesting that if by opening up fully as we intend, and the NHS gets as busy or even busier than January but crucially *still able to cope* then it's a price worth paying to go ahead with the open up and get this over with in the summer.

Probably akin to Boris's original "like ripping off a plaster" comment back in March of 2020, but this being now and not then.

Is he right? I can go along with what he's suggesting and his reasoning behind it.

He's since followed it up with a comment saying that it's better to have an end with horror, than a horror without end.

 

[Del_Bosque]

I don't know if anyone here follows Andrew Lilico on twitter or other platforms, he works for the daily telegraph which isn't usually my cup of tea but he has his say on Covid, restrictions, modelling all of which I see as balanced and fair.

Which is why I've linked to this thread.

I think his opinion here will be shared by many throughout the country, but may be seen as controversial. He's basically suggesting that if by opening up fully as we intend, and the NHS gets as busy or even busier than January but crucially *still able to cope* then it's a price worth paying to go ahead with the open up and get this over with in the summer.

Probably akin to Boris's original "like ripping off a plaster" comment back in March of 2020, but this being now and not then.

Is he right? I can go along with what he's suggesting and his reasoning behind it.

He's since followed it up with a comment saying that it's better to have an end with horror, than a horror without end.

Yea I pretty much agree with him, follow him on twitter myself nice to get a balanced view with a few others on there.

End of the day the NHS exists to serve the population of the UK, not the other way around.

And I say that as someone who's used it plenty of times and it's saved my life.

The first doses of the initial vac roll out will be nigh on complete in 2 weeks, if we can't unlock then in the middle of summer when can we.

 

[Healdplace]

GM Weekly Pop Data after today:~

Borough / Pop Today / 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.5


Manchester 505 / 420 / UP 82 Testing positive 11.5%

Salford 490 / 375 / UP 125 Testing positive 10.8%

Wigan 488 / 343 / UP 145 Testing positive 10. 4%

Oldham 474 / 268 / UP 206 Testing positive 11.0%

Rochdale 434 / 274 / UP 160 Testing positive 11.0 %

Trafford 408 / 277 / UP 131 Testing positive 8.3 %

Bury 395 / 333 / UP 62 Testing positive 10.7%

Tameside 364 / 262 / UP 102 Testing positive 9.3%

Stockport 302 / 217 / UP 85 Testing positive 8.3%

Bolton 286 / 255 / UP 31 Testing positive 11.7%




Some big shifts today, Bolton by only rising 31 week to week tops GM - which is unprecedented that every borough is rising so much, Many over 100 and Oldham up by more than 200 in the week - which I cannot ever recall in GM before,

Manchester tops 500 for first time since last winter and Stockport also over 300 for first time since before Christmas.

Bolton now officially the 'lowest' Pop Score without even really falling and close to 300 itself. Just not rising much, Small acorns grow into trees I guess.


Trafford case numbers remain worse than Stockport and lost another huge chunk of its lead on overall Pop Score.

Stockport now on 8351 and Trafford on 8359 - a swing of 22 to Stockport - most yet meaning SK regained the best Pop Score across the pandemic lead it lost a few month back when numbers were low .

On the same day Bolton snatched its best in GM weekly Pop Score it had held for much of the past weeks

Bolton had the lowest Pop Score rise today of just 42. Oldham the worst on 91.

Bolton's Pop Score now on 11, 739.

With Manchester rapidly catching up on 11, 542.

Rochdale and Oldham BOTH crashed into the 11K club together today,

Oldham uo to 11, 053 and Rochdale on 11, 026

Salford rose to 10, 742.

With Bury, doing much better now and falling behind on 10, 669.

Wigan up by 73 to reach 10, 439.



So just Stockport and Trafford - both in the low 8000s for now - and Tameside a rung above on 9276.

None in imminent danger of heading into the 10 K club with the rest of GM

 

[ayrshire_blue]

Yea I pretty much agree with him, follow him on twitter myself nice to get a balanced view with a few others on there.

End of the day the NHS exists to serve the population of the UK, not the other way around.

And I say that as someone who's used it plenty of times and it's saved my life.

The first doses of the initial vac roll out will be nigh on complete in 2 weeks, if we can't unlock then in the middle of summer when can we.

I'm coming round to that way of thinking as a least worst type option. It won't be nice but if by not doing as he suggests and we end up delaying any big exit wave to the winter time and still not really knowing how or when this ends then I'd be inclined to go for it.

As I say, Boris mentioned it would be like ripping off a plaster in March of 2020 when herd immunity was his plan. That was ridiculous then but now we're not too far off so perhaps it was the right comment but horribly out of time.

 

[uwe rosler 28]

I'd imagine only people seriously getting ill will be getting tested after the 19th and I'd imagine people getting seriously ill are 99% that anti vaxers time to get on with it now let's have a yr without any restrictions and see where we are.