Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Churchlawtonblue]

sajid just been on pressed on number of cases.

he said cases could be as high as 50,000 a day by the time the restrictions released and could still be as high as 100,000 by the end of summer.

he didn’t seem phased as he said the hospital numbers and deaths should be low due to the success of the vacccines Even with high cases.

those case numbers will terrify a few though.

Lets be honest he hasn't got a clue, he's just guessing. Giving a politician a title and position doesn't mean he knows anymore than he did a week ago, which was the sum of F all in the first place.

 

[blue b4 the moon]

freeedooommmm.

 

[Gabriel]

Cases rising in Israel again and the efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine is apparently down about a third against the Delta variant.

 

[hammocity]

I’ve never been so can’t comment. Mum and Dad loved them. I’m happy to go on one with him next year, but not 3. I’ve told him he should go alone and meet a nice lady.....Does the Love Boat actually exist

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[Healdplace]

All this talk about herd immunity here. Can one of our scientists answer - is this a real thing as I suspect not,

We have already seen you can catch it more than once and new variants by pass defences. And even nations that more or less seal themselves off from the world get those variants and it all starts again.

Is not the only way herd immunity works if we have a stable virus almost nobody can catch again and again? Or if they do it gets less and less severe and mutates into harmless co existence?

Is it not a bit like trying to eliminate flu. Impossible to create herd immunity only to keep modifying vaccines to keep pace and protect as many as possible from the consequences?

I hope I am wrong here but I do not see us as seeking to eradicate this virus just to mitigate its consequences.

That being the main reason we are opening up now in a way there is zero chance we would have done so if this was last Summer sans vaccines.

The vaccines help enough to limit the consequences but not to create any lasting immunity that stops Covid recurring We HAVE to learn to live with that reality,

And this opening up irreversibly is a step into that new world where Covid exists not a post Covid world.

We will only go backwards if the virus gets around the vaccines.

 

[Manchester33]

A few posts about how the NW shows we should expect a rapid spike then decline nationwide.

Genuinely no idea why people think this - it doesn't seem apparent in the data.

NW region cases by specimen date from the govt dashboard.

View attachment 20725

Scotland showing some signs. *If* they have reached a peak, for comparison hospital admissions are ~1/6 of the Jan peak. If that followed for the UK as a whole, we'd peak below 1000.

It's very uncertain what will happen, but it seems unlikely the national peak will be below 50,000 cases daily. Hospitalisations peak perhaps 500-1000? But no-one knows, and the further relaxation could make those numbers a *lot* higher.

I think the official cases will start to drop in England when the schools break up (as is the case so far in Scotland). If the cases double before the 19th, I think that will be where they officially peak.

I think despite the official/recorded cases peaking then, the real number of cases will rise, but most of these now unrecorded cases will be asymptomatic children.

 

[waspish]

All this talk about herd immunity here. Can one of our scientists answer - is this a real thing as I suspect not,

We have already seen you can catch it more than once and new variants by pass defences. And even nations that more or less seal themselves off from the world get those variants and it all starts again.

Is not the only way herd immunity works if we have a stable virus almost nobody can catch again and again?

Is it not a bit like trying to eliminate flu. Imopissible to create herd immunity only to keep modifying vaccines to keep pace and protect as many as possible from the consequences?

every one of those Thousands if people daily getting a positive test means was they get better they have antibodies against Covid. So like herd immunity

 

[uweblue]

Do you think we should stop with the daily deaths and case numbers from the 19th

 

[Healdplace]

every one of those Thousands if people daily getting a positive test means was they get better they have antibodies against Covid. So like herd immunity

Yes, but not necessarily for long and not necessarily against new variants. That is why a third booster jab inside a year for the over 50s is heading to your arm this winter. If herd immunity was a reality we could achieve that would not be required.

The more who catch it the more it will reduce, I agree. But is it realistic we can EVER eliminate this now? I doubt it,

The reality is we can minimise risk. And we have to readjust our lives to live with that at least for years - possibly forever.

I hope we are really investing in vaccine development in the UK already too. We must have our own facilities not depend on others to bail us out, As this will not be the last pandemic, And the next one might well be worse than Covid, It is relatively benign in terms of lethality, Other viruses are not,

 

[waspish]

Yes, but not necessarily for long and not necessarily against new variants. That is why a third booster jab inside a year for the over 50s is heading to your arm this winter.

yeah agree read that after you get Covid you probably good for around 90 days

 

[roubaixtuesday]

If the cases double before the 19th, I think that will be where they officially peak.

This is right at the bottom end of all expert projections. Nevertheless, let's hope you're right. It's not beyond the realms of possibility.

 

[Johnny Mars Bar]

This was always the transition we needed to make, from case focused to hospitalisation/death focused. If we don't do it at some point then we can only question why we are bothering with vaccines. There will be no such thing as zero-COVID as demonstrated in Australia where they have just a handful of cases and they are in lockdown with shut borders.

The media frenzy misses the point really that freedom day is totally irrelevant from a case perspective. Cases have risen without freedom day so it will not make any difference even if it was delayed until December.

If we cannot have freedom day and cases do continue to rise which they will then we have two choices, ignore it, or we go into lockdown all over again to bring it down. I'm not so sure many can take that.

What the government is doing is a gamble but I think it's a gamble worth taking if only to get the country moving, to get the economy going and to help people for example to get cancer treatment, improve mental health etc.

Exactly. I didn't vote for these wankers but I do think they are making the right decision on this.

Some people have forgotten there's anything in life apart from bloody coronavirus.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Do you think we should stop with the daily deaths and case numbers from the 19th

Definitely.

Not tracking an exponentially growing pandemic is a brilliant idea.

It also really helps the official govt line of us taking "personal responsibility" if we remove any idea of how significant the risk we're supposed to be "taking responsibility" for is.

Bang on.

 

[Healdplace]

I will not be stopping reporting the data here as long as the health authorities think we should read it or Ric decides this thread is no longer required, Or City win the champions league. Whichever comes first,

 

[meltonblue]

All this talk about herd immunity here. Can one of our scientists answer - is this a real thing as I suspect not,

We have already seen you can catch it more than once and new variants by pass defences. And even nations that more or less seal themselves off from the world get those variants and it all starts again.

Is not the only way herd immunity works if we have a stable virus almost nobody can catch again and again? Or if they do it gets less and less severe and mutates into harmless co existence?

Is it not a bit like trying to eliminate flu. Impossible to create herd immunity only to keep modifying vaccines to keep pace and protect as many as possible from the consequences?

I hope I am wrong here but I do not see us as seeking to eradicate this virus just to mitigate its consequences.

That being the main reason we are opening up now in a way there is zero chance we would have done so if this was last Summer sans vaccines.

The vaccines help enough to limit the consequences but not to create any lasting immunity that stops Covid recurring We HAVE to learn to live with that reality,

And this opening up irreversibly is a step into that new world where Covid exists not a post Covid world.

We will only go backwards if the virus gets around the vaccines.

Pretty much. We’ve essentially got to hope we get a bit lucky as we are opening up before we are in the best position to reduce the chances of the virus getting around the vaccines.

The concern is we’ve gambled a few times a lost considerably.

 

[Uncle Wally One Ball]

Cases rising in Israel again and the efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine is apparently down about a third against the Delta variant.

Ffs. Not good news

 

[waspish]

Ffs. Not good news

Full story

Israel data reportedly shows drop in efficacy of Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine as delta variant spreads​

July 5, 2021 10:59 AM GMT+1
Israel has recorded a steep drop in the efficacy rate of the PfizerInc.-BioNTech SE in preventing coronavirus infections, due to the spread of the delta variantand the easing of government restrictions, Ynet news website reported, citing Health Ministry data.

At the same time, the decline in protection against serious cases and hospitalization is considerably milder, the website said. There was no immediate comment from the ministry.
The figures show that between May 2 and June 5, the vaccine had a 94.3% efficacy rate. From June 6, five days after the government canceled coronavirus restrictions, until early July, the rate plunged to 64%. A similar decline was recorded in protection against coronavirus symptoms, the report said.
At the same time, protection against hospitalization and serious illness remained strong. From May 2 to June 5, the efficacy rate in preventing hospitalization was 98.2%, compared with 93% from June 6 to July 3. A similar decline in the rate was recorded for the vaccine’s efficiency in preventing serious illness among people who had been inoculated.
These figures are in line with ministry data that show that many of the new cases are among people who have been vaccinated, while the number of serious cases is rising much more slowly, Ynet said. Last Friday, 55% of the newly infected had been vaccinated, the website said. As of July 4, there were 35 serious cases of coronavirus in Israel, compared with 21 on June 19.
The government is considering reinstating additional coronavirus-related restrictions after restoring a mandate to wear masks indoors in public spaces. Officials are also discussing whether to recommend a third dose of vaccine, the report said.
Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla has said people will “likely” need a third dose of a Covid-19 vaccine within 12 months of getting fully vaccinated.
Israel had one of the world’s most effective coronavirus inoculation drives. Some 57% of the general population is fully vaccinated, including 88% of the population above the age of 50 -- the group considered most at risk for serious cases.

More health care and Big Pharma coverage from Fortune:​

• Racism and bias in health care: As a doctor, I’ve been an object, observer, and offender
• How the U.S. ended up in a serious blood crisis
• Mixing COVID-19 vaccine doses could improve immunity for AstraZenecarecipients, study finds
• Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla on equity, booster shots, and doubling production of COVID vaccines

 

[Healdplace]

On the five day old Pop Score data the North West has lost its top spot as the worst England region it has held since Bolton and East Lancashire (Blackburn etc) flared up in late Spring.

The North East is now well clear. Its numbers are really horrific these days



As the NW has risen, stabilised and started to fall here is what the NE has done Monday to Monday in case numbers:-

83 to 210 to 313 to 848 to 2105 to 2511 yesterday

NW in the same period 1038 - 1673 to 2262 to 2441 to 4168 to 3945

NW in those 5 weeks started around double its base rate and quadrupled about 10 days ago and seems to have flattened and may even now be falling

Meanwhile the NE went from best in UK under 100 cases for weeks on end to just go up, up and away and last night was 30 times where it was 5 weeks ago.

 

[True_Blue69]

Full story

Israel data reportedly shows drop in efficacy of Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine as delta variant spreads​

July 5, 2021 10:59 AM GMT+1
Israel has recorded a steep drop in the efficacy rate of the PfizerInc.-BioNTech SE in preventing coronavirus infections, due to the spread of the delta variantand the easing of government restrictions, Ynet news website reported, citing Health Ministry data.

At the same time, the decline in protection against serious cases and hospitalization is considerably milder, the website said. There was no immediate comment from the ministry.
The figures show that between May 2 and June 5, the vaccine had a 94.3% efficacy rate. From June 6, five days after the government canceled coronavirus restrictions, until early July, the rate plunged to 64%. A similar decline was recorded in protection against coronavirus symptoms, the report said.
At the same time, protection against hospitalization and serious illness remained strong. From May 2 to June 5, the efficacy rate in preventing hospitalization was 98.2%, compared with 93% from June 6 to July 3. A similar decline in the rate was recorded for the vaccine’s efficiency in preventing serious illness among people who had been inoculated.
These figures are in line with ministry data that show that many of the new cases are among people who have been vaccinated, while the number of serious cases is rising much more slowly, Ynet said. Last Friday, 55% of the newly infected had been vaccinated, the website said. As of July 4, there were 35 serious cases of coronavirus in Israel, compared with 21 on June 19.
The government is considering reinstating additional coronavirus-related restrictions after restoring a mandate to wear masks indoors in public spaces. Officials are also discussing whether to recommend a third dose of vaccine, the report said.
Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla has said people will “likely” need a third dose of a Covid-19 vaccine within 12 months of getting fully vaccinated.
Israel had one of the world’s most effective coronavirus inoculation drives. Some 57% of the general population is fully vaccinated, including 88% of the population above the age of 50 -- the group considered most at risk for serious cases.

More health care and Big Pharma coverage from Fortune:​

• Racism and bias in health care: As a doctor, I’ve been an object, observer, and offender
• How the U.S. ended up in a serious blood crisis
• Mixing COVID-19 vaccine doses could improve immunity for AstraZenecarecipients, study finds
• Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla on equity, booster shots, and doubling production of COVID vaccines

So despite the headlines, not that bad.

 

[Manc in London]

Who in their right mind wants to go on a cruise? An expensive floating prison, staffed by borderline slave labour and rammed full of senile miserable old codgers? Sod that for a game of soldiers.

Haha. I have long thought that myself.