Coronavirus (2021) thread

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England hospital data

As feared this is heading only one way. And mixed news for the North West,


ADMISSIONS (two days old remember)


Big jump up to 390 today V 226 last week. More than 50%

The NW admitted 80 - up from 62 the week before,

BUT it was not the most for the first time in weeks Not even the second most!

NE & Yorkshire admitted 102 of those 390 - up from 48 seven days earlier.

Midlands also on 81 - up in week from 35.


PATIENTS UP 110 on day to 1998. Just missed going over 2k v 1445 last week - up 553

By far the biggest wk to wk rise in some time. Last week it was up just 144.



VENTILATORS UP 23 on day to 353. Up 94 on week, Previously weekly rise was just 30,

These numbers are not a surprise but starting to look more concerning
 
ayrshire_blue said:
Won't it have a knock on affect to people who require treatment for other health conditions though as the concerning part of it all?
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Depends on the amount of free hospital beds at any time won’t it and I’m sure that will be the key figure the Govt will be looking at for future (potential) covid measures. At present it’s causing roughly as much trouble for the NHS as a Flu season. But let me ask you, who knew 12-18,000 died each year from Flu before Feb 2020? I certainly didn’t. There comes a point where we have to stop destroying the economy, paying people not to work and decimating the service sector. Because it doesn’t matter what the U.K. does, Covid isn’t going away in the rest of the world. My Mrs checked when she would be due her first jab if she was in South Africa, it’s in just over ten years time.

So in the U.K. we vaccinate those that can be vaccinated, we give boosters, we update the vaccines as and when a variant arrived that hospitalised those that are vaccinated and we try and get on with our lives again. This isn’t the “Spanish Flu” killing 1 in 10, it’s not killing 1 in a thousand vaccinated folk, it’s not even killing 1 in 5,000. Life can only be put on hold for so long before we deal with the fact that it’s going to remain endemic.
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DATA CONTINUED

North West numbers:

Patients up 9 to 570 V 479 last week - rise of 91

Ventilators up 9 to 117 V 92 last week - rise of 25
~
The ventilators are sadly suggesting many more deaths to come.


Other regions:-

East 98 patients (down 3) V 86 last wk AND 19 Ventilators (up 1) V 11 last wk

London 381 (up 17) V 301 last wk AND 74 ventilators (down 2) V 68 last wk

Midlands 334 (up 15) V 220 last wk AND 58 Ventilators (up 3) V 42 last wk

NE & Yorkshire 376 (up 54) V 215 last wk AND 55 Ventilators (up 6) V 30 last wk

South East 130 (up 9) V 68 last wk AND 16 Ventilators (up 5) V 9 last wk

South West 100 (down 8) V 76 last wk AND 14 Ventilators (up 1) V 7 last wk


As you can see easy to predict what is going to happen in Yorkshire and the NE in coming weeks, A rerun of the North West and Scotland.

Midlands and London may not be far behind.
 
SWP's back said:
So long as the majority are in the voluntarily unvaccinated then I’m not overly concerned.
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Have you seen any prediction of when this reaches a peak? Presumably at some point it will not find people to be infected.

I've not seen any scientist discussing that, hence the question.
 
Summerbuzz said:
Do we know that? Hospitalisation is one thing, but debilitating Long Covid cases aren't exclusive to that.

The effect of vaccination on the prognosis of minor and moderate cases is one question I think hasn't been addressed.

And I've not read a thing on how harmful Delta may be in those terms relative to previous variants.

I've also no idea how the risk of repeated exposure to the virus is viewed.

I imagine very strongly we're looking at increased viral loads in the community - and I know this was previously associated with poor outcomes.

What of repeated exposure to the same variant? Does beating Kent then getting heavy exposure to Delta comes with any risk? What if you beat a small viral load, then get a huge one?

Difficult questions, for sure. The limited information from track and trace would seem to leave us with potential gaps in our understanding.

Surely it's far too soon for scientific opinion to be making confident judgements about that side of things, and thus the risks attached to this decision. But obviously, not too soon for a politician to start selling it on the basis that the questions aren't so much unanswered as hitherto unasked, which is the same thing as not part of the debate.

Boris made this deal to save his skin back in February. And no-one is as impatient as a Tory looking at a restriction on the economy. It's pretty much on the Tory party as much as him. It would seem they got Javid in despite Boris, and here we are. Look how much room that leaves Boris!

If it does go tits up, public opinion and the right wing of the party will end up living on different planes. Leaving the moderates to come crawling back to Boris, at which point, he just takes Javid out of the spotlight for a bit, frees up his 5 O'clock diary slots, messes up his hair a bit, and wheels out the "Uncle Boris-On-The-Telly-With-The-Vaccines" character. And presumably prorogue parliament again.

I think he gave it away when he said it was time for us to stop washing our hands, and for him to start.
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The UK has now had 4 versions of the virus.
- The original
- The 'Spanish' variant that holiday makers brought back that triggered the 2nd wave at the end of Sept (it wasn't the original virus returning - genetics has proven that).
- Alpha.
- Delta.

Vaccination against the original virus has given the vulnerable a lot of immunity against Alpha and Delta. There will be another variant soon enough. Is that the one you want to wait for? Maybe the one after that?

Meantime the economy is further damaged so that poverty gets worse and restrictions cause mental issues that will cause more damage.

If the vulnerable have been given immunity (or the chance to have immunity) then we need to return to normal with a world wide policy on checking this virus's variants and updating vaccines to counter them. Much like the policy on flu.
 
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UK HOSPITAL NUMBERS:



Northern Ireland Patients 37 - up from 19 last week & ventilators 1 - down from 2 last week

Scotland Patients 346 - up from 215 last week & ventilators 32 - up from 20 last week

Wales Patients 60 - up from 36 last week & Ventilators 8 - up from 3 last week

THREE NATION TOTAL

Patients 443 V 270 last week Ventilators 41 V 25 last week


SO UK NUMBERS:



PATIENTS 2441 V 1715 last week

VENTILATORS 394 V 284 last week



These week to week numbers are up a lot and seem rather concerning as we are probably just at the start of this increase
 
MillionMilesAway said:
Have you seen any prediction of when this reaches a peak? Presumably at some point it will not find people to be infected.

I've not seen any scientist discussing that, hence the question.
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It was stated yesterday that modelling with up to the minute info is still underway, and will be reviewed before a final decision is made (even though a final decision has clearly been made already).

But I think most models of this sort of scenario see a peak in August, with considerable uncertainty of timing and magnitude.

Currently cases are only just starting to catch the same sorts of numbers as vaccination is, and that's had a disappointingly small impact on growth of delta, so it would be surprising if this level of cases rapidly stopped growth. But covid is full of surprises.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
It was stated yesterday that modelling with up to the minute info is still underway, and will be reviewed before a final decision is made (even though a final decision has clearly been made already).

But I think most models of this sort of scenario see a peak in August, with considerable uncertainty of timing and magnitude.

Currently cases are only just starting to catch the same sorts of numbers as vaccination is, and that's had a disappointingly small impact on growth of delta, so it would be surprising if this level of cases rapidly stopped growth. But covid is full of surprises.
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Thanks. I assume there is also data showing age ranges of those affected. I'm thinking virtually all the cases this week are delta variant, but the age split seems to be the important thing, as well as how many have had 2 jabs over 3 weeks beforehand.
 
37 deaths today equates to 20-25 wed through Sat due to most weekend deaths not being reported on the correct day.
 
MillionMilesAway said:
Thanks. I assume there is also data showing age ranges of those affected. I'm thinking virtually all the cases this week are delta variant, but the age split seems to be the important thing, as well as how many have had 2 jabs over 3 weeks beforehand.
Click to expand...

I think it's very difficult to accurately predict as there's so much uncertainty over exact vaccine efficacy, how much people's behaviour will change after 19th etc etc.

Here's an amateur but very well informed modeller with their central projection.

Peak early August, near 2,000 daily admissions (note the axis is in weekly) with some breakdown down.


1625590510031.png

I would guess that's a reasonable guess, but with a lot of uncertainty.

From here

 
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