Coronavirus (2021) thread

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ZOE APP DATA


Predicted cases RISE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ABOUT 10 DAYS:-

ON 42, 990 UP 974 FROM 42 016.

PREVIOUS DAYS DOWN 270 FROM 42, 286 After DOWN to 43. 728 BY 1442 and DOWN from 44, 679 BY 951 and DOWN from 45 594 - BY 915.



SO ZOE - LIKE THE REAL DATA - IS PRETTY LEVEL BUT NOW GOING UP AS IS NOT THAT UNUSUAL IN THE REAL GOV UK DAILY NUMBERS AFTER THE WEEKEND.


Ongoing symptomatic cases are also still falling. But slowed a lot today.

ON 626, 675 - DOWN JUST 2748 ON YESTERDAY'S 629, 423

DOWN PREVIOUSLY FROM 636, 503 by 7080

Past Week's Falls were DOWN FROM 646, 638 - by a fall of 10, 135 - DOWN 653 883 - A FALL OF 7245 AND FROM 662 086 - by 8203 AND FROM 669 433 A FALL OF 6951 AND FROM 675 135, 680 244 & 690 506


Ongoing cases will lag daily predicted cases by a few days
 
ZOE APP REGIONS:

A LOT OF RISES TODAY


Yorkshire still top but UP ON 753 / 1042 FROM 727 / 1013

London - ALSO UP ON 701 / 890 FROM 688 / 875


THESE ARE NOW THE ONLY TWO IN THE HIGHEST WATCH ZONE



North East - ALSO UP ON 571 / FROM 592 / 890

Northern Ireland - BUCKS THE TREND WITH A GOOD FALL TO 254 / 1072 FROM 301 / 1159


NORTH WEST AFTER STANDING STILL YESTERDAY FOLLOWING DAYS OF FALLS ALSO NOW GOING UP

ON 562 / 784 FROM 545 / 766




AND IN THE LOWEST WATCH ZONES ON THEIR OWN:-


WALES ALSO UP TO 362 / 638 FROM 348 / 618


SCOTLAND STILL (FOR NOW) IN THE LOWEST CONTINUES THE RISING TREND IT STARTED FIRST


UP T0 286 / 500 FROM 261 / 469 / 249 456 AND 234 / 442 in recent days



That Scotland - first to fall is first to rise and again leads the UK into that by a week or so is telling that cases might indeed really be on the increase.

We will see I guess in the actual data in coming days.
 
True_Blue69 said:
Read the last few posts of people saying that’s what we need. How else do you interpret that?
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What you claimed people need, directly quoted "Here in Melbourne were are now under curfew. "

Please link to the posters you claim want us to be under curfew, or alternatively STFU and stop spouting bollox.
 
johnnymarrsbarres said:
Cases rising means nothing if people are protected from getting seriously ill via vaccines.

How the hell are some people still not getting this????
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cases in a country with lots of people vaccinated / immune mean very little in its own right as hospitalisation/death rates are far lower ( can still be a good barometer even then ) . But cases in a country with few immune ( due to successful controls ) or vaccinated means a lot.
 
ZOE APP NORTH WEST DATA


GREATER MANCHESTER


BOLTON INCHES UP TO 6698 FROM 6515 - but as in real case data now the best in GM again

BURY JUMPS UP TO 18 576 FROM 12 791 - not promising here

MANCHESTER INCHES UP TO 7332 FROM 6860 - still one of the lowest scores here in a long time

OLDHAM UP MASSIVELY TO 32, 098 FROM 21, 260 - been going up steadily and now after this rise not just the highest in GM but the highest in GM for weeks AND the most in the North West too

ROCHDALE as neighbour EDGING UP ALSO TO 14 171 FROM 12 592 - these two look to be heading towards higher numbers for G soon.

SALFORD stable and falls a little TO 7751 FROM 7932 - going the right way but no longer the best. Bolton and Manchester are ahead of it.

STOCKPORT UP slightly TO 8699 FROM 8303 - stable but at a modestly high number though not a very high one here.

TAMESIDE FALLS slightly to 15 305 FROM 16 023- no longer highest in GM as Oldham and Bury above. But still high.

TRAFFORD INCHES DOWN TO 8793 FROM 8872 - back to falling and it has been doing better lately in real data

WIGAN DOWN A LOT TO 8895 FROM 12 690 - good to see a positive fall here too


Others:

CHESHIRE EAST - often tracks neighbour Stockport and falls to be close to it again TO 8464 FROM 10 370

LIVERPOOL - DOWN Slightly TO 11 580 FROM 11 778 - much higher than Manchester which it was matching

WIRRAL - UP slightly to 5749 FROM 5694 but very flat here.


FYLDE & WYRE (The Blackpool holiday coast)

UP today a little TO 11 937 FROM 11 184 - Nowhere near the 25K it was up too in the sunshine. But still high as are the areas around Preston.
 
grunge said:
cases in a country with lots of people vaccinated / immune mean very little in its own right as hospitalisation/death rates are far lower ( can still be a good barometer even then ) . But cases in a country with few immune ( due to successful controls ) or vaccinated means a lot.
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That’s my whole bloody point.
 
Summary of England hospital activity over the weekend

ADMISSIONS - Covers THU - FRI - SAT (as two days behind)

758 - 694 - 689

Previous week same three days 693 - 657 - 665

All three days are up week to week

REGIONALLY

THE THREE DAYS ABOVE AND V SATURDAY BEFORE

LONDON 134 - 118 - 129 V 102

MIDLANDS 152 - 143 - 124 V 117

NE & YORKSHIRE 139 - 124 - 151 V 156

AND

NORTH WEST 113 - 112 - 102 V 110


So NW still lowest admissions of the four largest regions this weekend.


PATIENTS - THESE ARE SATURDAY - SUNDAY - YESTERDAY V A WEEK YESTERDAY

4973 - 5115 - 5429 V 5098


Patients fell below 5000 on Saturday but rose by a lot yesterday. Biggest increase in some time - though Monday is often the biggest day.

Last week the same numbers were 4817 - 4939 - 5098 V 5309


Three regions now have over 1000 in hospital

LONDON on 1086 V 1077 last week

MIDLANDS on 1063 V 921 last week

NE & YORKSHIRE on 1088 V 863 last week - biggest number and biggest increase wk to wk


NORTH WEST Went across the weekend 815 - 795 - 813 - 835 (yesterday) V 863 last week

So the lowest in patients of the main regions and the only one down week to week


VENTILATORS

797 - 800 - 816 (now the highest since last winter) V 762 last Monday

LONDON on 211 V 202 last week

MIDLANDS on 161 V 162 last week

NE & YORKSHIRE on 137 V 133 last week



NORTH WEST on 114 V 117 last week (though it was up by 5 from 109 yesterday)


TOTAL PATIENTS IN UK AS OF YESTERDAY is 6231 - up from 5929 week before

ON VENTILATORS IN UK AS OF YESTERDAY is 911 - up from 857 week before
 
SCOTLAND DATA

SADLY A PRETTY BAD DAY HERE. NOT BOD(NG WELL FOR THE REST


9 deaths - was 11 last week

1815 cases - was 1032 last week

10.6% positivity - was 7.8% last week THESE ARE STARTING TO FOLLOW THE ZOE APP RISE BUT BIG JUMPS HERE WK TO WK

338 patients - UP 1 on yesterday - was 352 last week

40 ventilated icu - up 1 on yesterday - was 40 last week
 
Healdplace said:
SCOTLAND DATA

SADLY A PRETTY BAD DAY HERE. NOT BOD(NG WELL FOR THE REST


9 deaths - was 11 last week

1815 cases - was 1032 last week

10.6% positivity - was 7.8% last week THESE ARE STARTING TO FOLLOW THE ZOE APP RISE BUT BIG JUMPS HERE WK TO WK

338 patients - UP 1 on yesterday - was 352 last week

40 ventilated icu - up 1 on yesterday - was 40 last week
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Several well vaccinated countries (Scotland, US, Israel) now maybe showing that removing all restrictions can lead to significant growth. We should do what we can to get ahead of this.

But, yet again, we're choosing to be an international outlier. We're not vaccinating children ahead of the new school year. Most countries are.

Seems to be fingers crossed and hold on as late as possible before responding. It's been a disastrous strategy three times so far. Maybe we'll be lucky this time.
 
grunge said:
yep, Sorry I mean to add a 2nd quote from others who seem to think looking at any data at all makes them preverted or something when not following the finer nuances of the conversation.

plus there has been a long run of people on this thread since day one trying to down play cases.
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Cases matter much less than they once did but they DO matter as the chain starts with them as the first step on the path to a % going into hospital and a % of those onto ventilators and, sadly, a small % of them dying.


Cases paint a picture of where we are headed in 2 or 3 weeks time when that chain of events play out and which any government is bound to want to know to seek a way to view where we are headed as THAT is the only thing you can take decisions for tomorrow built around.

It will still be guesswork to a degree but can only be educated guesswork if you know the numbers to create your plan from.
 
BlueAnorak said:
Shame she only got 17.3% of the population double jabbed in 7.5 months.
What a great job...
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They only really got going in May, presumably because the vaccine suppliers were prioritising those countries that needed them more urgently, and the rate of jabs is accelerating. They've now jabbed their most vulnerable and are about 3 months behind us but lived more or less restriction free through most of the pandemic. I think I know who's done a better job.
 
England hospital deaths today btw 154 with 29 from the NW.

Last wk was 152 with 25 and week before 147 with 26

Pretty flat as you can see on what is usually the largest total of the week with added weekend catch u registrations.

All settings deaths last week was 146.

Cases 23 510

Yesterday cases were 28 438 v 25 161 wk before
 
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Healdplace said:
Cases matter much less than they once did but they DO matter as the chain starts with them as the first step on the path to a % going into hospital and a % of those onto ventilators and, sadly, a small % of them dying.


Cases paint a picture of where we are headed in 2 or 3 weeks time when that chain of events play out and which any government is bound to want to know to seek a way to view where we are headed as THAT is the only thing you can take decisions for tomorrow built around.

It will still be guesswork to a degree but can only be educated guesswork if you know the numbers to create your plan from.
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Yep agreed on the fact that they are a precursor of where we are heading. but when you compare them to pre vaccinations the need to track cases is far less simply due to far less being translated into hospitalisations etc.

the need for very close monitoring before now was to prevent the overwhelming of hospitals, ability to redirect resources to those hospitals etc. which fingers crossed we are past now.

To me case tracking is now more needed for genomic tracing of variants and detecting anything new and sinister than roadmapping. at least until late autum when Flu season kicks in fully. we'll probably need that closer monitoring then.
 
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