west didsblue
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Yep.
In simple terms join the SM and CU. Bit of a no brainer really.
We could do that without a referendum. After all we only voted to leave the EU, not the EEA.
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Political relations between UK-EU
- Thread starter Ric
- Start date
In simple terms join the SM and CU. Bit of a no brainer really.
We could do that without a referendum. After all we only voted to leave the EU, not the EEA.
metalblue
Well-Known Member
Germany must be really unlucky not be benefitting from the UK booming economy (sans chickens). Deferring the UK Quality Mark and retaining the EU Mark will help a bit, though. Nice to see reality unmoved by Brexit ideology :)
German exports to major European partners
Jan-June 2021 vs Jan-June 2020:
+20% Belgium
+17% Netherlands
+17% France
+28% Italy
+23% Spain
+26% Poland
+23% Czech Republic
+20% Austria
+3% UK
German imports from major European partners
Jan-June 2021 vs Jan-June 2020:
+32% Belgium
+11% Netherlands
+10% France
+25% Italy
+12% Spain
+25% Poland
+22% Czech Republic
+19% Austria
-11% UK
Hardly surprising numbers for Germany in reality. The major imported goods from UK are aircraft stuff, metal, oil and cars all things that have most suffered with a collapse in demand from COVID.
Unfortunately the numbers are hard to pin on the impacts of COVID or Brexit, it’s going to be some of them both but we simply don’t know how much. We will need to wait another year before we can point with any level of certainty.
All we can probably say for certain is some businesses have suffered due to Brexit and need to find new markets to make up the shortfall (easier said than done).
bluethrunthru
Well-Known Member
Hardly surprising numbers for Germany in reality. The major imported goods from UK are aircraft stuff, metal, oil and cars all things that have most suffered with a collapse in demand from COVID.
Unfortunately the numbers are hard to pin on the impacts of COVID or Brexit, it’s going to be some of them both but we simply don’t know how much. We will need to wait another year before we can point with any level of certainty.
All we can probably say for certain is some businesses have suffered due to Brexit and need to find new markets to make up the shortfall (easier said than done).
Truss is opening new markets isn't she? Haven't our cheesemakers flooded the Japanese market with Stilton and Caerphilly? Isn't Australia flooded with NISSAN's from Sunderland by now? Dunno about you but I am joining the 50 million other Brits heading to Gibraltar in September for a holiday..............we have fucked ourselves over mate and you know it
metalblue
Well-Known Member
There have. And it isn't complicated. If you raise trade barriers, you hinder trade, impose administrative barriers and increase costs.
The solution is to decrease these trade barriers. To do this we need a deeper and more beneficial trade arrangement with the EU. The current deal is shallow and one-sided. The EU have put in place full border controls which our industries have to navigate. EU industries do not face this challenge as we have not put in place border controls and the likelihood of us doing so in October are remote.
The UK Quality standard was part of this attempt to reassert UK influence over trade, yet was pushed back as we don't have the infrastructure to do the necessary checks and certification and International companies declined to undergo an additional costly exercise to satisfy our vanity.
The solution to those business struggling and facing additional red tape and admin costs is to eliminate them and that means accepting the UK is bound up within the EU economic zone and accepting the common rules and standards that govern it.
This will reduce trade barriers, eliminate unnecessary admin costs to our industries and remove the angst of a trade border between GB and NI.
People who reject this solution prize political ideology over economic welfare of this country and the peace process in NI. Brexit is the new communist orthodoxy.
None of that is relevant now. We’ve left. What is relevant is what is actually happening and our only metric is exports to the EU, and - despite these trade barriers - they were near record numbers. Of course it’s only one month and one swallow a wife does not make.
Business will always find a way to do business.
metalblue
Well-Known Member
Truss is opening new markets isn't she? Haven't our cheesemakers flooded the Japanese market with Stilton and Caerphilly? Isn't Australia flooded with NISSAN's from Sunderland by now? Dunno about you but I am joining the 50 million other Brits heading to Gibraltar in September for a holiday..............we have fucked ourselves over mate and you know it
We’ve definitely fucked ourselves over at least in the short term. Maybe even the long term but that story is yet to be written - despite what some analysts had to say on the subject.
UK has three headwinds currently mate
- Brexit and negotiating new trade deals
- COVID
- Boris as PM
Ifwecouldjust.......
Well-Known Member
We’ve definitely fucked ourselves over at least in the short term. Maybe even the long term but that story is yet to be written - despite what some analysts had to say on the subject.
UK has three headwinds currently mate
- Brexit and negotiating new trade deals
- COVID
- Boris as PM & Conservatives in power
Corrected for you. But I agree we are definitely f@cked and we're only a couple of months in.
BobKowalski
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None of that is relevant now. We’ve left. What is relevant is what is actually happening and our only metric is exports to the EU, and - despite these trade barriers - they were near record numbers. Of course it’s only one month and one swallow a wife does not make.
Business will always find a way to do business.
Of course it's relevant. How is a trade deal any good to the UK if it confers advantages to the EU that are not applicable to the UK? How is increasing admin costs on UK industries ‘not relevant’? Are we are that stage where firms that keep going, despite increased costs, is a ‘win’ for Brexit? Things were meant to be better, not more expensive or where we run out of chicken. And we still have yet to impose our own border controls along with more layers of expensive red tape.
As for trade with the EU the Q2 figures compared with last year in the middle of lockdown are hardly a ringing endorsement.
The somewhat worrying sign is the fall in exports to non-EU countries.
‘Trade with EU still down around 10% this year compared to non-EU trade, driven entirely by fall in imports from EU
Goods trade, Q2-21 vs Q2-19
Total
EU -10%
Non-EU 0%
Imports
EU -16%
Non-EU +8%
Exports
EU -1%
Non-EU -9%’
metalblue
Well-Known Member
Corrected for you. But I agree we are definitely f@cked and we're only a couple of months in.
Haha. Although not the purpose of this thread it does seem like the tories could benefit from a spell on the sidelines to just remind them that they actual have to govern not fuck around like it’s their person fiefdom. Hard to say if it is Boris’s fault or the party in general.
BobKowalski
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FT reporting on UK exclusion from EU/EFTA Lugano legal pact.
‘It will hit families and consumers on both sides of Channel, warn lawyers from 22 EU countries.
This is about the Lugano Convention 2007, an agreement between EU states and Swiss, Norway + Iceland that determines which countries’ courts have jurisdiction over cross-border disputes, and ensures judgments can be enforced abroad.
The UK government says this is a nakedly political decision, designed to crimp London's position as a centre for commercial dispute resolution...and that's a view shared by a lot of lawyers we’ve spoken to...like former spanish judge Josep Galvez,‘
In short its the EU playing hardball. Join EFTA and welcome. Stay outside of the two European structures and its a no.
‘It will hit families and consumers on both sides of Channel, warn lawyers from 22 EU countries.
This is about the Lugano Convention 2007, an agreement between EU states and Swiss, Norway + Iceland that determines which countries’ courts have jurisdiction over cross-border disputes, and ensures judgments can be enforced abroad.
The UK government says this is a nakedly political decision, designed to crimp London's position as a centre for commercial dispute resolution...and that's a view shared by a lot of lawyers we’ve spoken to...like former spanish judge Josep Galvez,‘
In short its the EU playing hardball. Join EFTA and welcome. Stay outside of the two European structures and its a no.
metalblue
Well-Known Member
Of course it's relevant. How is a trade deal any good to the UK if it confers advantages to the EU that are not applicable to the UK? How is increasing admin costs on UK industries ‘not relevant’? Are we are that stage where firms that keep going, despite increased costs, is a ‘win’ for Brexit? Things were meant to be better, not more expensive or where we run out of chicken. And we still have yet to impose our own border controls along with more layers of expensive red tape.
As for trade with the EU the Q2 figures compared with last year in the middle of lockdown are hardly a ringing endorsement.
The somewhat worrying sign is the fall in exports to non-EU countries.
‘Trade with EU still down around 10% this year compared to non-EU trade, driven entirely by fall in imports from EU
Goods trade, Q2-21 vs Q2-19
Total
EU -10%
Non-EU 0%
Imports
EU -16%
Non-EU +8%
Exports
EU -1%
Non-EU -9%’
So we agree, despite Brexit and COVID, UK exports (which is all the UK cares about in reality) to the EU have, based on current data, remained largely resilient.
Exports (to RoW) of crude/refined, and cars/machinery/aircraft are the hardest hit, not such a surprise when the global economy is on its arse. Imports largely increased in consumables such as electronics and clothing which, again, is hardly a surprise given pent up demand.
BobKowalski
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So we agree, despite Brexit and COVID, UK exports (which is all the UK cares about in reality) to the EU have, based on current data, remained largely resilient.
Exports (to RoW) of crude/refined, and cars/machinery/aircraft are the hardest hit, not such a surprise when the global economy is on its arse. Imports largely increased in consumables such as electronics and clothing which, again, is hardly a surprise given pent up demand.
Oy vey.
Our exports have dipped 1% compared to lockdown levels, whereas every other European country saw exports increase in double figures as their economies emerged from lockdown. We are truly blessed.
I’m not even going to bother with the dismissal of imports as no big deal except to say the UK is not a company, does not run a P/L account and imports are also lost business, especially if those imports are part of a supply chain for use in finished products.
Repeat after me. Raising trade barriers inhibits trade, increases cost to businesses and consumers and just as the sun rises in the morning and sets in the evening it cannot be denied, for it is reality. And reality is a harsh mistress.
It was this harsh mistress that did for the UK Quality Mark, will likely do for our attempt to impose full custom borders and is currently ensuring I cannot get a KFC bucket.
Give me practical and pragmatic politics over that of ideologues and fanatics any day, for truly they ruin everything.
bluethrunthru
Well-Known Member
metalblue
Well-Known Member
Oy vey.
Our exports have dipped 1% compared to lockdown levels, whereas every other European country saw exports increase in double figures as their economies emerged from lockdown. We are truly blessed.
I’m not even going to bother with the dismissal of imports as no big deal except to say the UK is not a company, does not run a P/L account and imports are also lost business, especially if those imports are part of a supply chain for use in finished products.
Repeat after me. Raising trade barriers inhibits trade, increases cost to businesses and consumers and just as the sun rises in the morning and sets in the evening it cannot be denied, for it is reality. And reality is a harsh mistress.
It was this harsh mistress that did for the UK Quality Mark, will likely do for our attempt to impose full custom borders and is currently ensuring I cannot get a KFC bucket.
Give me practical and pragmatic politics over that of ideologues and fanatics any day, for truly they ruin everything.
1% is the square root of feck all. What economies have seen double digit growth pre-COVID to now? The numbers you provided a few posts back were showing double digit growth from after COVID and economies fell off a cliff in H1 2020 to H1 2021. But the UK is showing a 1% decline in exports aka flat to the EU from pre-COVID and pre-Brexit, that’s remarkable.
Regarding imports from EU, looks like new car sales are about the biggest culprit but they are gaining some decent momentum now.
Eat salad rather than KFC, you’re stomach will thank you.
Last edited:
bluethrunthru
Well-Known Member
1% is the square root of feck all. What economies have seen double digit growth pre-COVID to now? The numbers you provided a few posts back were showing double digit where COVID impacted where economies fell off a cliff in H1 2020. But the UK is showing a 1% decline in exports aka flat to the EU from pre-COVID and pre-Brexit, that’s remarkable.
Regarding imports from EU, looks like new car sales are about the biggest culprit but they are gaining some decent momentum now.
Eat salad rather than KFC, you’re stomach will thank you.
who's harvesting his salad?
metalblue
Well-Known Member
who's harvesting his salad?
Ah you’ve got me there mate. Maybe grow your own ;)
BobKowalski
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1% is the square root of feck all. What economies have seen double digit growth pre-COVID to now? The numbers you provided a few posts back were showing double digit growth from after COVID and economies fell off a cliff in H1 2020 to H1 2021. But the UK is showing a 1% decline in exports aka flat to the EU from pre-COVID and pre-Brexit, that’s remarkable.
Regarding imports from EU, looks like new car sales are about the biggest culprit but they are gaining some decent momentum now.
Eat salad rather than KFC, you’re stomach will thank you.
Exports, not economies.
And let them eat salad? The Brexit benefits are truly upon us.
Trade barriers inhibit trade and/or make it more expensive. Or in this case, means you run out of KFC chicken.
BobKowalski
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who's harvesting his salad?
I'm going to binge watch past episodes of The Good Life. May come in handy :)
bluethrunthru
Well-Known Member
I'm going to binge watch past episodes of The Good Life. May come in handy :)
Its actually just starting now on BBC 4 lol !!
metalblue
Well-Known Member
Exports, not economies.
And let them eat salad? The Brexit benefits are truly upon us.
Trade barriers inhibit trade and/or make it more expensive. Or in this case, means you run out of KFC chicken.
Show me the exports that have double digit grown pre-COVID to now for the EU. I’ll wait.
I fully agree that trade barriers make trade harder and/or more expensive. They are protectionist by design.
BobKowalski
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Show me the exports that have double digit grown pre-COVID to now for the EU. I’ll wait.
I fully agree that trade barriers make trade harder and/or more expensive. They are protectionist by design.
Mate, I did the German figures compared to UK and that was dismissed, overall reduction in trade also discounted, along with a side order of ‘who cares about imports’, and an invitation to eat salad because KFC and others have run out out of the staple that pretty much is their reason for being.
No amount of information be it the UK Quality Mark nonsense, our refusal to entertain temporary visas for truck drivers or care home staff or a hundred and one other things is going to make a difference to the Brexit faithful.
And if you fully agree that trade barriers make trade harder and/of more expensive and then voted to make that happen, then what is the point in having the discussion? We agree. The only difference is I voted not to raise trade barriers with Europe. You did.