New striker?

[BlueMoonAcrossThePond]

Danny 'Holiday' Inn-gs.

Swing and a miss... strike one! :-)

 

[eyalluvitt]

 

[NorCalBlue]

No stat is perfect, but surely the best available to judge the finishing ability of strikers is xG. It takes into account the difficulty of each shot, which pure shots v goals doesn't. Using all the data available at Understat.com (only league games since about 2014) Kane is streets ahead of Sterling, Ronaldo, and even Aguero.

Kane: xG = 139, Goals = 163, 17% higher than average for the same difficulty of shots
Sterling: xG = 92, Goals = 86, 7% lower than average
Ronaldo: xG = 210, Goals = 215, 2% higher than average
Aguero: xG = 126, Goals = 132, 5% higher than average
Torres: xG = 13.7, Goals = 15, 10% higher than average - very small sample size, so this one should be taken with a pinch of salt

 

[mccity]

No stat is perfect, but surely the best available to judge the finishing ability of strikers is xG. It takes into account the difficulty of each shot, which pure shots v goals doesn't. Using all the data available at Understat.com (only league games since about 2014) Kane is streets ahead of Sterling, Ronaldo, and even Aguero.

Kane: xG = 139, Goals = 163, 17% higher than average for the same difficulty of shots
Sterling: xG = 92, Goals = 86, 7% lower than average
Ronaldo: xG = 210, Goals = 215, 2% higher than average
Aguero: xG = 126, Goals = 132, 5% higher than average
Torres: xG = 13.7, Goals = 15, 10% higher than average - very small sample size, so this one should be taken with a pinch of salt

It's a good way to assess a tool but it's incomplete.

Some players might not overachieve, but they could have significantly higher xG than average, due to brilliant movement and dribbling for example. The overall goals in a player who overachieves their xG and a player who doesn't but has really high xG to begin with could turn out to be the same.

This isn't an argument against Kane (or in favour of Sterling) btw, it's just me saying xG can be interpreted in multiple ways, each with their own value. The level of analysis can go a lot deeper if you choose it to.

 

[BlueMedic]

Can't take out penalties - it's a big Achilles heel from us and has cost us in some very big games. if CL Final had gone to pens, I would have put us as a significant underdog.

It's an oddity that we seem to miss a lot of penalties during matches, but we've actually won 7 penalty shoot outs in a row. Whereas Chelsea have lost 3 of their last 5 (including one against us).

We just save it for when it really matters I guess..

 

[lasereyes]

It's an oddity that we seem to miss a lot of penalties during matches, but we've actually won 7 penalty shoot outs in a row. Whereas Chelsea have lost 3 of their last 5 (including one against us).

We just save it for when it really matters I guess..

Yes it's true - but we havent had many that matter that much recently (mostly Carabou early rounds). Chelsea in Carabou Final was the last one of significance I think.

 

[mccity]

It's an oddity that we seem to miss a lot of penalties during matches, but we've actually won 7 penalty shoot outs in a row. Whereas Chelsea have lost 3 of their last 5 (including one against us).

We just save it for when it really matters I guess..

It could be a team vs individual mentality thing, as weird as that sounds.

Shootouts are a team effort (technically), so it's possible the players in the team have such confidence in each other it inspires confidence in themselves.

Whereas in matches, it's all on the player himself.

 

[lasereyes]

You can if you are comparing a player who doesn't take them with one who does.

Even with their recent woes City have been scoring above 6 out of 10 penalties. Ronaldo and Kane score just over 8 out of 10, but then Gundogan and De Bruyne score 8 out of 10. (As an aside Ronaldo is not as good as Bruno, so if he insists on taking them, that's a bonus for City!)

So, you're comparing a chance with a scoring ratio of between 0.6 and 0.8 with their non-penalty scoring ratios of 0.11 (Ronaldo) and 0.21 (Sterling).

Clearly anyone taking penalties is going to push up their ratios. Having an extra good penalty taker would be useful, but if we leave it to Gundogan and De Bruyne, then any difference is likely to be minimal.

They dont take them cos they are crap at them. If everyone who took penalties scored them, then you could exclude them. That's clearly not the case for us. Are we going to ignore Ederson's huge punts up field that create attacks cos others don't do it?

 

[ScottSinclair]

Barcelona have asked for Felix on loan. If he is on the market I hope we at least enquire

 

[BlueMedic]

Yes it's true - but we havent had many that matter that much recently (mostly Carabou early rounds). Chelsea in Carabou Final was the last one of significance I think.

Final vs Liverpool
Final vs Chelsea
Quarters vs Leicester
Quarters vs Leicester
4th Round vs Wolves
Final vs Liverpool

That's the last 6 from what I can see. Half of them are finals against some of our biggest rivals. Even the others are later in the competitions against good sides.
Like I say it's weird as its hard not to go into them expecting the worst when you watch us take them in league games, but in shoot outs we just seem to win!