New striker?

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No stat is perfect, but surely the best available to judge the finishing ability of strikers is xG. It takes into account the difficulty of each shot, which pure shots v goals doesn't. Using all the data available at Understat.com (only league games since about 2014) Kane is streets ahead of Sterling, Ronaldo, and even Aguero.

Kane: xG = 139, Goals = 163, 17% higher than average for the same difficulty of shots
Sterling: xG = 92, Goals = 86, 7% lower than average
Ronaldo: xG = 210, Goals = 215, 2% higher than average
Aguero: xG = 126, Goals = 132, 5% higher than average
Torres: xG = 13.7, Goals = 15, 10% higher than average - very small sample size, so this one should be taken with a pinch of salt
 
NorCalBlue said:
No stat is perfect, but surely the best available to judge the finishing ability of strikers is xG. It takes into account the difficulty of each shot, which pure shots v goals doesn't. Using all the data available at Understat.com (only league games since about 2014) Kane is streets ahead of Sterling, Ronaldo, and even Aguero.

Kane: xG = 139, Goals = 163, 17% higher than average for the same difficulty of shots
Sterling: xG = 92, Goals = 86, 7% lower than average
Ronaldo: xG = 210, Goals = 215, 2% higher than average
Aguero: xG = 126, Goals = 132, 5% higher than average
Torres: xG = 13.7, Goals = 15, 10% higher than average - very small sample size, so this one should be taken with a pinch of salt
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It's a good way to assess a tool but it's incomplete.

Some players might not overachieve, but they could have significantly higher xG than average, due to brilliant movement and dribbling for example. The overall goals in a player who overachieves their xG and a player who doesn't but has really high xG to begin with could turn out to be the same.

This isn't an argument against Kane (or in favour of Sterling) btw, it's just me saying xG can be interpreted in multiple ways, each with their own value. The level of analysis can go a lot deeper if you choose it to.
 
lasereyes said:
Can't take out penalties - it's a big Achilles heel from us and has cost us in some very big games. if CL Final had gone to pens, I would have put us as a significant underdog.
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It's an oddity that we seem to miss a lot of penalties during matches, but we've actually won 7 penalty shoot outs in a row. Whereas Chelsea have lost 3 of their last 5 (including one against us).

We just save it for when it really matters I guess..
 
BlueMedic said:
It's an oddity that we seem to miss a lot of penalties during matches, but we've actually won 7 penalty shoot outs in a row. Whereas Chelsea have lost 3 of their last 5 (including one against us).

We just save it for when it really matters I guess..
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Yes it's true - but we havent had many that matter that much recently (mostly Carabou early rounds). Chelsea in Carabou Final was the last one of significance I think.
 
BlueMedic said:
It's an oddity that we seem to miss a lot of penalties during matches, but we've actually won 7 penalty shoot outs in a row. Whereas Chelsea have lost 3 of their last 5 (including one against us).

We just save it for when it really matters I guess..
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It could be a team vs individual mentality thing, as weird as that sounds.

Shootouts are a team effort (technically), so it's possible the players in the team have such confidence in each other it inspires confidence in themselves.

Whereas in matches, it's all on the player himself.
 
bluenova said:
You can if you are comparing a player who doesn't take them with one who does.

Even with their recent woes City have been scoring above 6 out of 10 penalties. Ronaldo and Kane score just over 8 out of 10, but then Gundogan and De Bruyne score 8 out of 10. (As an aside Ronaldo is not as good as Bruno, so if he insists on taking them, that's a bonus for City!)

So, you're comparing a chance with a scoring ratio of between 0.6 and 0.8 with their non-penalty scoring ratios of 0.11 (Ronaldo) and 0.21 (Sterling).

Clearly anyone taking penalties is going to push up their ratios. Having an extra good penalty taker would be useful, but if we leave it to Gundogan and De Bruyne, then any difference is likely to be minimal.
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They dont take them cos they are crap at them. If everyone who took penalties scored them, then you could exclude them. That's clearly not the case for us. Are we going to ignore Ederson's huge punts up field that create attacks cos others don't do it?
 
lasereyes said:
Yes it's true - but we havent had many that matter that much recently (mostly Carabou early rounds). Chelsea in Carabou Final was the last one of significance I think.
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Final vs Liverpool
Final vs Chelsea
Quarters vs Leicester
Quarters vs Leicester
4th Round vs Wolves
Final vs Liverpool

That's the last 6 from what I can see. Half of them are finals against some of our biggest rivals. Even the others are later in the competitions against good sides.
Like I say it's weird as its hard not to go into them expecting the worst when you watch us take them in league games, but in shoot outs we just seem to win!
 
BlueMedic said:
Final vs Liverpool
Final vs Chelsea
Quarters vs Leicester
Quarters vs Leicester
4th Round vs Wolves
Final vs Liverpool

That's the last 6 from what I can see. Half of them are finals against some of our biggest rivals. Even the others are later in the competitions against good sides.
Like I say it's weird as its hard not to go into them expecting the worst when you watch us take them in league games, but in shoot outs we just seem to win!
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you've duplicated the scouser final (nice way to boost your stats, lol) - and that was way back in 2016. As I said, aside from the Chelsea final, the other recent ones are all early Carabou rounds.
 
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This could have been us, our brand would have skyrocketed in one day. Still can't digest we bottled both Messi and this ex rag.
Let's hope this keeps the Glazers for a very long time.
 
lasereyes said:
They dont take them cos they are crap at them. If everyone who took penalties scored them, then you could exclude them. That's clearly not the case for us. Are we going to ignore Ederson's huge punts up field that create attacks cos others don't do it?
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1. I understand where you're coming from, but it wasn't the question I was answering. If I'm assessing Ederson's ability as a shot stopper, then his ability to kick the ball 100 yards is irrelevant. I was replying to a post suggesting that we had poor finishers at City, and my main point is that the differences, even with the players we were looking to buy were minimal.

2. Compared with Kane and Ronaldo, Sterling still comes out as the most clinical finisher with or without penalties.

3. We have other players who have a penalty record similar to Kane/Ronaldo, so it's not a huge loss. If we had Ronaldo taking penalties instead of De Bruyne/Gundogan, then he would score on average one extra penalty every four years.

4. Have a look at the maths again. Ronaldo, takes almost 9 shots before he scores a goal. City's "poor" penalty record over the same period was scoring 2 goals for every 3 shots (1.5 shots per goal). It's a different order of magnitude. That's why it skews the stats - particularly Ronaldos, because he takes pretty much every penalty.

The simple conclusion is that the magic "number 9" doesn't exist. The gain would be marginal at best, and too many people are looking at single missed chances in big games and thinking "Kane would have scored", when the truth is that even the best miss much more than they score.
 
lasereyes said:
you've duplicated the scouser final (nice way to boost your stats, lol) - and that was way back in 2016. As I said, aside from the Chelsea final, the other recent ones are all early Carabou rounds.
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We beat Liverpool in the community shield and league cup on penalties. All I did was google the answer, not hard to do, and not quite sure why you find it so difficult to accept facts, there is no denying we've been good at penalty shoot outs in recent years, take a look for yourself if you must.

This was the first result on google:
www.transfermarkt.co.uk

Manchester City - Penalty shoot-out

This statistic shows all penalty shootouts of Man City.
www.transfermarkt.co.uk www.transfermarkt.co.uk
 
Mumbai_Blue said:
View attachment 25536
This could have been us, our brand would have skyrocketed in one day. Still can't digest we bottled both Messi and this ex rag.
Let's hope this keeps the Glazers for a very long time.
Click to expand...
When I was a four year old in 1990, and my old man took me to Maine Road for the first time, and I saw that big, bright green pitch and heard the noise, and saw how big the players were up close, and felt the thrill of a goal and a win and the heartbreak of conceding and defeat, I turned to him and said, "Dad, will we ever break Instagram records?".
 
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