Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

REGIONAL DATA

Once again the Southern Regions perform FAR better than the north. Be interesting to figure out why.

TWO of the southern regions actually fall today - one by over 800. The other 2 not up by much.

ALL the north and Midlands regions up significantly today. Yorkshire by even more than the North West.

Yorkshire, East Midlands and West MIdlands are all over 3000 today. With North West over 4000.

And South West FALLS by 827 to just 1763.

 

[BlueAnorak]

the data is interesting on the current cases. The best performers and most vaccinated is performing the worst and the best performance is from Manchester who has been one of the worst performers over the pandemic and have the least vaccinated. I wonder if some kind of herd immunity is driving this.?

More likely non reporting of actual cases by folks who have to work to meet ends meet.

 

[BlueAnorak]

I should know what models are for because I get paid to build them every day. I get paid for my opinion on what my best guess of what's going to happen. If I stood up in front of my clients and supplied a huge variation of outcomes like these guys do I'd be out of a job within a month.

Same applied to me when that was my day job rather than IT away from Population Statistics.

 

[BlueAnorak]

• Due to a major incident with the data collection system used to collect daily data, there will be no update on Wednesday 22 September 2021. Figures will be published alongside data for Thursday 23 September 2021.~
  
  ABOVE MESSAGE FROM ENGLAND HOSPITALS TO EXPLAIN WHY NO DATA TODAY
  
  YET ANOTHER IT PROBLEM.
  
  WHO IS OUR TECH PROVIDER - DEL BOY?

The string and paper cups connecting the systems has broken.
All based on spreadsheet propagation from a local to a regional to a national level.

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND REGIONS


EAST FALLS BY 83 - TO 2442 V 2274 - UP 168 IN WEEK

LONDON UP BY 143 - TO 2593 V 2589 - UP 4 IN WEEK

SOUTH EAST UP BY 406 TO 3802 V 2918 - UP 884 IN WEEK

SOUTH WEST FALLS BY 827 TO 1763 V 1610 - UP 153 IN WEEK

MODEST RISES APART FROM THE SOUTH EAST



EAST MIDLANDS UP BY 267 TO 3003 V 2458 UP 545 IN WEEK

WEST MIDLANDS UP 261 - TO 3549 V 2427 - UP 1122 IN WEEK ANOTHER HUGE JUMP

NORTH EAST UP BY 316 TO 1546 V 1247 -UP 299 IN WEEK

YORKSHIRE UP BY 824 TO 3456 V 2455 - UP 1001 IN WEEK AND BIGGEST JUMP TODAY


AND


NORTH WEST UP BY 562 TO 4081 V 3222 - UP 859 IN WEEK


THE RISES MUCH LOWER IN THE SOUTH INCLUDING SOME FALLS NORTH AND MIDLANDS STRUGGLING MORE FOR SOME REASON


GM AS A PERCENTAGE OF NORTH WEST CASES

TODAY 32.8% UP FROM 31.5% YESTERDAY - WORSE THAN YESTERDAY

HOWEVER ALSO UP FROM 31.2% LAST WEEK

NOT A GOOD DAY IN GM

 

[Healdplace]

GREATER MANCHESTER SCOREBOARD


TOTAL CASES 1339 - UP 231 FROM YESTERDAY.

NORTH WEST UP BY 562 TO 4081 - JUST OVER PAR FOR GM WHICH IS NOT GOOD NEWS WITH A RISE.


VERSUS LAST WEEK GM WAS THEN 1005 - SO UP 334.

NORTH WEST ROSE BY 859 WEEK TO WEEK FROM 3119.

THIS IS A SLIGHTLY SMALLER SHARE OF THE RISE IN GM SO A LITTLE BETTER NEWS



STOCKPORT 228 - UP 49 on day & UP 96 wk to wk. Worst day in ages here and fourth time on the run and fifth in the week more cases than Manchester to top the tree. Never happened before. Pop Score up 77 today. Most in GM since July. LOSING 15 more points though to Trafford to increase their lead as lowest in GM across the pandemic to 55 . Sadly no sign of a serious turnaround here. POP SCORE 12, 882


MANCHESTER 168 - UP 36 on day & UP 9 wk to wk. Manchester Pop Score up 30 - best in GM today. POP SCORE 15, 759

TAMESIDE 160 - LEVEL on day & UP 47 wk to wk - Another bad day here but still better than Stockport. Pop Score up 71.POP SCORE 14, 211

WIGAN 147 - UP 8 on day & UP 49 wk to wk. Pop score up 45 today - POP SCORE 14, 865

TRAFFORD 146 - UP 32 on day & UP 32 Wk to wk - Pop Score up by 62 points today. High but still good enough to increase overall Pop Score across the pandemic from Stockport to 55. POP SCORE OF 12, 805

SALFORD 127 - UP 27 on day & UP 33 wk to wk. Pop Score up 48. POP SCORE 15, 538

BOLTON 122 - UP 43 on day & UP 20 wk to wk - Bolton Pop Score up 41 to take Bolton into the 15K club as its 5th member with Wigan only 2 or 3 days from joining them . POP SCORE 15, 023

BURY 87 - UP 32 on day & UP 31 wk to wk Pop score here up 45 POP SCORE 14, 694

OLDHAM 82 - UP 7 on day & DOWN 5 Wk to Wk. ONLY FALLER WEEK TO WEEK. Pop Score up 34 and now 127 ahead of Manchester for highest overall GM pop score . POP SCORE 15, 886

ROCHDALE 72 - DOWN 3 on day & UP 22 wk to wk. Pop Score up 33. POP SCORE 15, 272

 

[Healdplace]

GM boroughs weekly past 7 day case totals:

Bury 506, Rochdale 523, Oldham 645, Bolton 693, Salford 741, Trafford 864, Tameside 935, Wigan 956, Manchester 1187, Stockport 1224

At the right end of the table Bury and Rochdale clear. But all but Oldham were up today.

At the wrong end of the table Stockport rose today by its highest weekly rise yet which took it beyond the worst numbers ever and ahead of Manchester for the first time ever.

The media might even see what is happening now but beginning to doubt it given their silence for so long since this problem started.

This is a graphic illustration that Stockport - we assume school related - have the worst numbers in months in GM. Though you would hope that soon all of the town's children will have tested positive given the numbers in past 2 weeks.

This is why the vaccination rate being the best in GM is not relevant. Those catching it here never got that vaccination. BUT the ones who did may very well stop the high cases here becoming a serious problem in Stepping Hill Hospital as the kids will not be going there and more adults than anywhere else in GM are double jabbed so should be less of them picking it up from the kids. We hope.

 

[Healdplace]

GM WEEKLY POP SCORES

Remember low scores good - going down good - high scores bad - going up bad


BOROUGH // POP SCORE TODAY // POP SCORE LAST WEEK // UP OR DOWN BY LAST 7 DAYS

Also WAS 4 weeks ago (up/down in past month)


MANCHESTER 213 // 245 //DOWN 32 WAS 321 (down 108)

ROCHDALE 234 // 251 // DOWN 17 WAS 270 (down 36 )

BOLTON 239 // 261 // DOWN 22 WAS 225 (up 14)

BURY 265 // 268 // DOWN 3 WAS 258 (up 7)

OLDHAM 271 // 302 // DOWN 31 WAS 303 (down 32)

SALFORD 282 // 285 // DOWN 3 WAS 403 (down 121)

WIGAN 289 // 293 // DOWN 4 WAS 275 (UP 14)

TRAFFORD 364 // 309 // UP 55 WAS 363 (UP 1)

TAMESIDE 412 // 353 // UP 59 WAS 396 (UP 16 )

STOCKPORT 416 // 359 // UP 57 WAS 357 (UP 59 )



Manchester up 1 but improved its lead. Most other places rose a fair bit today.

Tameside had a bad day and shot back up over 400 today and Stockport was even worse and regained top spot with a big daily jump taking it over 400 for first time ever.

Trafford up too but by less so forged a gap between the top neighbour boroughs who are struggling.

Stockport now up big still month to month and cements its clear place now as worst in GM today on every measure. And all but double Manchester;s Pop Score is terra incognita.

Salford has been by far the best performer over the past month falling lots.

But Manchester is over 100 better off too. They have both had very good spells over the past 4 weeks.

 

[BerkshireBlue]

I would be surprised if the modelling you do is as complex. I would also suggest if they were poor at what they did, they would not be doing the job they are currently doing. They are well qualified people who know what they are talking about. It's easy to be a critic when not well informed.

to be honest the models they apply are quite simple in maths terms. I'm not saying they're not qualified (although I doubt there's one proper mathematican amongst them all, I suspect they'll all biologist, virologist, geography types pretending to be mathematicians) I'm saying they're quite useless at predicting anything

 

[The Northern Baptist]

I see the BBC have let Strictly get into 'crisis' by not making the pro dancers get jabbed before dancing with celebs. One has found out they were not even told their partner was unvaccinated and is kicking off not unreasonably imo. Given the long term close contact across months that seems very silly and unsurprisingly some celebs are concerned about why this has happened.

This is what results when you try to please everyone and not require them to make it a choice.

It was not difficult. The dancers and the celebs should all have been told they were free to say no to the vaccine but participation in the 2021 series depended on them saying yes. You preserve free choice and those who you are spending hours with daily sweating and breathing heavily get reassurance.

Time we started being tougher on this as choice is fine and I support it not being mandatory in any situation but where these choices may have consequences there have to be limits on what the unwilling then do. In this case be a group dance participant but NOT a celeb partner due to the extensive one to one contact that results and must increase risk.

As one of the celebs noted they might have vulnerable family members and it was unfair on them not to be made aware they were being put into this situation. At the very least they deserved to know up front and have the right to refuse the partner. Indeed just asking could have been used in the process of deciding the partner. Simply not telling anyone was incredibly naive of the BBC. Thinking you can keep people in the dark assuming they would all be happy.

Assuming these stories are true - as always. But having worked with the BBC over the years it would not astound me.

would it be legal for the BBC to ‘sack’ the dancers because they are unjabbed?