Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

WALES DATA

6 deaths - was 4 deaths last week

2476 cases - was 2891 cases last week

9.4% positivity - was 11.1% last week

520 patients - was 514 last week

50 ventilated - was 44 last week

 

[BlueAnorak]

Good news what Dame Sarah Gilbert says, which I have been suspecting for a while is the path we are on from the data but without the scientific background to know it is credible which she has and that makes her view on this very significant.

As one of those who created the AZ vaccine she should know and has no reason to say this if not. But she says Covid is not going to mutate into a more deadly form and instead will go the other way and in effect become like a version of the cold that will be no more than a minor irritance to most people. The common cold is itself a kind of coronavirus so it makes sense. Possibly long ago it created a pandemic and huimans learned to live with it.

That seems the most likely way this pandemic will end. Indeed it seems well on the way to that at the moment, The end point will not come with a bang or the Doom Variant but a slow fizzle like a damp firework that you expect to go boom spectacularly but instead just sparks a bit and then goes out.

Evolution probably decrees this as there is no advantage at all to the virus to wipe out its hosts. That is just an unfortunate side effect, It thrives if we survive and it can keep on infecting us causing inconvenience not extinction.

The consensus is that the common cold came from Camels apparantly - just like MERS.

Next time you get a cold – blame camels

Experts warn the success of the cold virus in spreading across the world shows the potential for a pandemic by the deadly MERS virus, which also came from camels

www.independent.co.uk

Russian Flu in 1889 is also reckoned to be a Coronavirus

 

[grunge]

The consensus is that the common cold came from Camels apparantly - just like MERS.

Next time you get a cold – blame camels

Experts warn the success of the cold virus in spreading across the world shows the potential for a pandemic by the deadly MERS virus, which also came from camels

www.independent.co.uk

Russian Flu in 1889 is also reckoned to be a Coronavirus

Seems an odd article. there are over 200 viruses that cause the Common Cold.

Common cold - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

"Well over 200 virus strains are implicated in causing the common cold, with rhinoviruses, coronaviruses, adenoviruses and enteroviruses being the most common.[13]"

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

As I suspected and noted yesterday there WAS a big chunk of missing data from the Midlands who posted zero then but in reality it was around 28 that went ureported from there yesterday and that reflects in todays numbers by being a double dose for Midlands so WELL up on last Thursday BUT if you add Wednesday & Thursday together much less so - 218 last week versus 230 this week.

133 deaths with 12 North West - Last Week 97 with 17 North West & wk before 99 with 12 North West.

(That 133 in reality if the numbers had been available from Midlands yesterday is more like 105 today and yesterdays 68 more like 96).

TODAYS REPORTED 133 deaths

BY REGION:

East 11, London 7, Midlands 46, NE & Yorkshire 27, North West 12, South East 19, South West 11

South Tyneside with 8 deaths today was the most

North West Trusts:- St Helens 3 (St Helens is the highest numbers in the NW on Zoe and has been for weeks) , Blackpool 2 and 1 each in Bolton, Chester, East Cheshire, Morecambe, Tameside, Warrington & Wirral

By Age:- 20 - 39 (2), 40 - 59 (11), 60 - 79 (60), 80 PLUS (60)

 

[MikeF]

Absolutely.
We all want those clean cut off points (like a genuine 'freedom day' akin to street parties after the war etc) but life doesn't work like Hollywood.
This is why some films get slated for having an ambiguous, 'slow fizzle' (to quote you) ending.

On that note, I've picked up my first cold of the year from my daughter (she did get a PCR test done but was negative).
I've just done a lateral flow test and it's negative.
Definitely feels like an old school cold rather than Covid (aware the symptoms can differ however).

I’ve been rough all this week and with the symptoms (temperature n cough) so had a PCR test just to check and it’s come back negative thankfully.

Obviously just the dreaded man flu but it’s certainly made me think, I’ll be going back to wearing a mask when in public spaces as I’ve become lax of late. Like the rest of the bloody nation and part of me thinks it was peer pressure why I dropped using the mask. It’s just good practise. That and washing your hands frequently.

 

[Healdplace]

We now have the latest 7 days total deaths at 5 days for England hospital.

As suspected it IS down on last week:

Here are the numbers for the past Month:


WEEK // DAY BY DAY // TOTAL FOR THE WEEK AFTER 5 DAYS FOR EACH DATE // NUMBERS ADDED ON POST 5 DAYS SINCE


AUG 22 - AUG 28 // 78 - 71 -82 - 57 - 62 - 73 - 70 // TOTAL 493 // PLUS 74

AUG 29 - SEP 4 // 69 - 73 - 77 - 62 - 69 - 88 - 70 // TOTAL 508 // PLUS 52

SEP 5 - SEP 11 // 89 - 87 - 90 - 80 - 89 - 77 - 65 // TOTAL 577 // PLUS 72

SEP 12 - SEP 18 // 73 - 56 - 89 - 77 - 85 - 75 - 71 // TOTAL 526 // PLUS 39



Obviously the more recent the week the less time it will have had to add on cases so that needs factoring into the above data

As you can see the numbers were edging up - then two weeks ago rose a lot - but this past week have fallen back to not much over two weeks back.

There is no big rise and SEP 9 on 103 deaths is the last date as of now to have topped 100.

SEP 7 on 112 looks right now to have been the peak.

 

[Healdplace]

SCOTTISH DATA

37 deaths - was 26 last week - these are sadly the legacy of those weeks of high cases

4024 cases - no data last week due to IT problems - was 6836 two weeks ago

8.0% positivity - was 7.8% yesterday & 10.8% two weeks ago

1057 patients - down from 1076 yesterday - was 1054 last week

86 ventilated icu - up from 82 yesterday - was 94 last week

 

[Healdplace]

NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

8 deaths - was 5 last week

1165 cases - was 1071 last week

4.5% positivity - was 4.5% last week

7698 Weekly total cases - was 7738 yesterday & 9075 last week

101 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - WAS 102 YESTERDAY & 112 LAST WEEK

383 patients - was 387 yesterday & 425 last week

25 ventilated - was 26 yesterday & 33 last week


GOOD DATA AGAIN HERE TODAY

44% of those testing positive over the week are 19 and under

2.6% are over 80 & 10.6% in total over 60.

So only one in ten of all cases right now are in the most vulnerable age group over 60 and not far off half of them are teenagers or below.

Why cases are not translating into hospital patients or death.

 

[Healdplace]

So total deaths today with out of hospital England to add are: - 184

Last week at this stage the total was 132 - that became 158 when 26 were added from out of hospital in England

 

[Healdplace]

And the three nation cases with England to add are:- 7665

Last week at this stage it was just TWO nations as no data for Scotland. That was 3962 VERSUS for the same two nations today 3641.

Total cases last week were 26, 911 after England added 22. 949

Yesterday the total was 34, 460 after England added 27, 317

Have to expect around 35K today you would think.