COVID Data Thread

Healdplace said:
ZOE APP NUMBERS

TODAY

SADLY AS HAS BEEN COMING FOR DAYS ALL THE NUMBERS ARE NOW GOING BACK UPWARD


Predicted cases

UP from 71,548 TO 73.427 - Another big daily rise of 1879 after rises of 1891 yesterday and 1394 & 1665 the days before. Clearly going back upwards quite fast again.



AND

Ongoing symptomatic cases ARE rising now too after slowing towards a stall and now a rise. Inevitable a week or so into daily cases rising as ongoing cases will lag this.

UP on 985,390 FROM 983,798 - a RISE of 1592 after falls of 590 and 1293 the days before.

Week to week the fall is 31, 477 - but this too will soon reverse as it has dropped in 10 days steadily from a gap of over 131,000.



NW though had another OK day on Zoe FELL slightly again staying in 10th place - the lowest of the 10 regions in the upper watch zone.

NORTH WEST DOWN FROM 883 / 1182 TO 878 / 1178 - EVEN SMALLER FALL THAN NW HAD YESTERDAY BUT OK CONSIDERING MANY WERE UP TODAY AND THE UK DATA IS CLEARLY GOING UP ON ALL MEASURES

ONLY SCOTLAND AND LONDON ARE IN THE MIDDLE WATCH ZONE AGAIN

The 10 regions in the upper watch zone are:- in order

Wales - TOP -DOWN (1219 / 1685 TO 1205 / 1675), Northern Ireland 2nd but DOWN ( 752 / 2034 TO 716 / 1985), East Midlands up to 3rd and UP (1037 / 1400 TO 1053 / 1423), East rises to 4th and UP today the most (977 / 1225 TO 1051 / 1310), North East falls is 5th also DOWN a tad (920 / 1457 TO 906 / 1446). South East in 6th but UP big (1013 / 1197 TO 1063 / 1253) , West MIdlands is up into 7th UP BY FAR THE MOST TODAY (889 / 1220 TO 981 / 1331) ,Yorkshire up too but by less so falls again into 8th UP (932 / 1278 TO 966 / 1322) and in 9th is South West also rising a lot UP (916 / 1152 TO 975 / 1221)

North West in 10th is behind them all and unlike most of the ones above is DOWN on 878 / 1178 - closer to the lower zone than the rest ahead in the higher watch zone


AND the two left in the middle watch zone are:


London in 11th and all but flat FROM 838 / 1057 TO 838 / 1061 - closest to North West here in a while.


And the best in UK is

Scotland (lowest in UK) DOWN a touch FROM 754 / 1076 TO 724 / 1039
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As Zoe is self reported, is it likely to be affected by people having symptoms of other common winter ailments, like flu or a cold?
 
45 All settings Deaths - was 47 last week

England only 34 - was 29 last week

44,917 cases

UP 4913 on yesterday AND UP 5212 on last Monday

England only

36,478 cases

UP 2965 on yesterday AND UP 5038 on last Monday

Not good news as numbers tend to rise for the next three days after Monday.

Last week they rose 8000 from today - if they do that again at similar rates we will have a new record number since last Winter.
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
As Zoe is self reported, is it likely to be affected by people having symptoms of other common winter ailments, like flu or a cold?
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Possibly but they seek a lot of symptoms and have done many tweaks to make it more accurate of late and by and large it is now tracking the Gov UK data very well indeed. Just a few hours of it and in more detail.

But even Zoe never suggest it is more than a guide to trends as it tends to pick up those a day or two ahead of Gov UK due to it taking time for the Gov UK test numbers to catch up.
 
Healdplace said:
45 All settings Deaths - was 47 last week

England only 34 - was 29 last week

44,917 cases

UP 4913 on yesterday AND UP 5212 on last Monday

England only

36,478 cases

UP 2965 on yesterday AND UP 5038 on last Monday

Not good news as numbers tend to rise for the next three days after Monday.

Last week they rose 8000 from today - if they do that again at similar rates we will have a new record number since last Winter.
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All those deaths and no mention how many died from the jabs.
 
NORTH WEST AND GREATER MANCHESTER SUMMARY

REF the question on Zoe above - Not a good advert today.

Zoe had Stockport far and away the best in GM and it had probably the worst numbers on the real data today. Up by far the most week to week (doubled in fact) and its Pop Score is fast rising. So either the case numbers are misleading today and Zoe is wrong - or it is ahead of the game and Stockport will now plunge in coming days.

NORTH WEST UP DAY TO DAY 710 TO 3941.

Greater Manchester UP just 131 of that ON 1395 - which is well below expectation.

Manchester falls 50, Oldham to a low 70 only (by 9) - but the rest all up day to day - Wigan by 54 to 205. Stockport by 31 to 162 and Salford up 25 to 161 the three worst.

WEEK TO WEEK NORTH WEST IS UP 600 FROM 3341

Greater Manchester is UP 287 of that - which is a little over expectation (225 or so).

Stockport is behind a lot of that - up 82 week to week to 162 - from what was an admittedly oddly low 80 last Monday.

Wigan rises by 60 to 205 - Wigan actually being top scorer today.

Manchester is second on 192 but is down week to week by 6.

OLdham is lowest scorer on 70 but that is still UP 11 on the week.

Bolton up 39 to 141. Bury up 28 to 105. Rochdale up 13 to 129. Salford up another big jump - 57 - to 161. Tameside only up 4 to 119

And Trafford has a very good day falling by just 1 to 111

But enough to claw back another 8 Pop Score Points from Stockport cutting the gap to just 465! Still the most Trafford has reclaimed in some time given Stockport;s up to last two days good run of numbers.

Stockport's numbers were only second worst in terms of Pop Score today. Wigan rose by 62 V Stockport's 55 to take that 'honour'.
 
xgorton said:
All those deaths and no mention how many died from the jabs.
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Naughty.
You should know it does not cause deaths from the emphatic nature of the roll out to the youngest age groups.
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL SUMMARY


NOTHING DRASTIC HAPPENED OVER THIS WEEKEND AND NORTH WEST WAS THE BEST REGION TOO



ADMISSIONS (THURSDAY TO SATURDAY) (always 48 hour behind on admissions - the rest of data is all from today)

697 THU / 637 FRI / 611 SAT V LAST WEEK (SAME DAYS) 791 THU / 729 FRI / 655 SAT


ALL DOWN WEEK TO WEEK - TWO WEEKS AGO THESE SAME THREE DAYS WERE 717 / 686 / 688

SO ADMISSIONS ARE LOWER THAN THEN TOO




Over the three days the regional admissions week to week were:-

London 266 v 287 (DOWN 21), Midlands 379 V 406 (DOWN 27), NE & Yorkshire 353 V 403 (DOWN 50) & North West 252 V 303 (DOWN 51)

North West and NE & Yorkshire clearly had the best three days v last week. But ALL down.



PATIENTS FRI/ SAT / SUN / TODAY


6310 / 6191 / 6322 / 6426 Today -Risen by 116 Since Friday


Last week's numbers were:


6777 / 6639 / 6707 / 6864 - Risen by 87



Weekend before the numbers were:


7072 / 6874 / 6910 / 7075 Today - Risen by just 3


So the FRI - MON numbers have edged up over the past two weeks but not by much at all 3 - 87 - 116 UP is pretty flat


Two weeks ago on Monday the week to week fall was 7535 to 7075 so a fall of 460

Last week on Monday the week to week fall was 7075 to 6864 so a fall of 211 week to week.

Today the fall Monday to Monday is 6864 to 6424 so a fall of 440 - MORE THAN LAST WEEK. AND OVER 1100 DOWN IN THREE WEEKS

Over weekend:-

REGIONALLY London UP 37 to 1067, Midlands UP 19 to 1217, NE & Yorks UP 7 to 1206 & NW DOWN 4 to 905. So NW the only one falling as it has been for a couple of weeks now. Well behind the other regions in numbers now.


Week to week London (DOWN 27), Midlands (DOWN 35), NE & Yorkshire (DOWN 132), East (DOWN 76), South East (DOWN 90) , South West (DOWN 161) and North West (DOWN 119) over the last 7 days.

SO EVERYWHERE FELL WEEK TO WEEK AND NORTH WEST ONE OF THE BEST.




VENTILATORS OVER THE WEEKEND


769 / 764 / 776 / 785 - UP 16


Last weekend the numbers were:-

838 / 830 / 841 / 821 - DOWN 17


Weekend before the numbers were:-

860 / 856 / 849 / 869 UP 9.



So week to week today ventilators are DOWN by 36

The previous week to week was DOWN by 48



REGIONALLY over the weekend London has 180 (UP 8), Midlands 147 (DOWN 1), NE & Yorkshire 126 (UP 3) & North West 94 (DOWN 4)

North West did have a good weekend here AND even better week to week


NORTH WEST FELL WEEK TO WEEK BY 24 FROM 118 TO 94.

EASILY THE BEST PERFORMANCE
 
UK HOSPITAL NUMBERS (ACROSS THE WEEKEND)

Could have been a lot worse given the cases rise all last week


PATIENTS:-


ENGLAND 6424, N IRELAND 378, SCOTLAND 750 , WALES 536 UK TOTAL 8088 (UP 36)

Every nation EXCEPT England down



VENTILATORS:-


ENGLAND 785, N IRELAND 26, SCOTLAND 59 WALES 57 UK TOTAL 927 ( UP 14)

Scotland and Wales fell and N Ireland and England rose


Both numbers up over the weekend but overall by tiny numbers
 
Bluehammer here were the cases and Pop Scores today in your two Kent areas so you can track them daily and compare them with GM to follow in later posts.

MEDWAY 202 cases today (DOWN from 205 yesterday) - Total cases 43,286 - Pop Score 15,507 (Up 73 today) & Weekly Pop Score 432 (UP 14)

DARTFORD 43 cases today (DOWN from 82 yesterday) - Total cases 18,731 - Pop Score 16,423 (Up 37 today) & Weekly Pop Score 356 (DOWN 23)
 
ENGLAND REGIONS BY CASE NUMBERS TODAY

CASES - Up/Down on day V Last Week



SOUTH EAST 6876 - DOWN 587 V 6266- UP 610 wk to wk - seems to be slowing here but still well above the rest

SOUTH WEST 4371 - UP 232 V 3690 - UP 681 wk to wk

EAST 4354 - UP 396 V 3883 - UP 471 wk to wk

LONDON 4347 - DOWN 189 V 3343 - UP 1004 wk to wk.


JUST 24 SEPARATE THESE THREE SOUTHERN REGIONS!


NORTH WEST 3941 - UP 710 V 3341 - UP 600 wk to wk

WEST MIDLANDS 3727 - UP 493 V 3270 - UP 457 week to week

EAST MIDLANDS 3529 - UP 1012 V 2971 - UP 558 Wk to wk


THESE THREE REGIONS VERY CLOSE TO ONE ANOTHER AS INDEED THEY ARE ON ZOE


YORKSHIRE 3134 - UP 851 V 2773 - UP 361 wk to wk

NORTH EAST 1635 - UP 380 V 1385 - - UP 250 week to week


EVERYONE UP WEEK TO WEEK TODAY AND BY NOT WILDLY DISSIMILAR NUMBERS THOUGH LONDON WAS JUST OVER 1000.

THE REGIONS SEEM TO BE COMING BACK CLOSER TOGETHER THOUGH SOUTH EAST STILL THAT STEP AHEAD OF THE REST - JUST BY LESS THAN THE HUGE NUMBER THAT IT WAS
 
GREATER MANCHESTER BOROUGHS WEEKLY CASES


Oldham 687, Bury 781, Tameside 900, Trafford 918, Rochdale 980, Stockport 1033, Bolton 1054, Salford 1108, Wigan 1307, Manchester 1719



Not a great day in GM as almost everyone up. Now FIVE over 1000 - most yet - with Rochdale another bad day from it becoming six.

Oldham still best. Manchester now just 412 ahead of Wigan after it fell and Wigan rose. Stockport was up a lot today and said hello to the 1000s again after just a few days away.
 
Healdplace said:
ZOE APP NUMBERS

Unfortunately after a very good day yeserday when most places fell and predicted cases and ongoing cases did too and North West was down into seventh place it has gone a bit pear shaped today.

The predicted cases after slowing down over past few days have now gone UP for the first time in around 10 days

UP from 64, 297 yesterday to 64, 810.


Not a surprise given the real cases ately but disappointing evidence we are reversing the numbers that had looked hopeful here now as well as the daily Gov UK data.

We also failed to fall below one million ongoing cases which was expected - though this will keep falling as the number lags by a week or so reversal of daily cases.

It did fall from 1,017,465 yesterday to 1.002,687 today.

It will almost certainly fall below a million tomorrow but the fall is slowing and in a week or so I fear this number will start rising back towards the million again too UNLESS the predicted cases number is just a blip and starts to fall from 64K again.

Regionally - too -Zoe shows North West bearing most of this rise.

UP from the short stay in the lower watch zone and rising into fifth place after going UP quite a lot TO 901/1184 - which is in one leap above ALL of the falls across the last four days.

Thisis easily the biggest increase of all twelve UK regions today on Zoe.

So a big reversal for the region being forecast here. We will seeif tonights real numbers match this and Zoe has been pretty good on that score sadly.

The four regions above the North West are all UP too (in order North East, Wales, Northern Ireland and East) BUT all of these are only up a little bit compared to the big jump in the North West today.

Indeed Yorkshire (which was above North West) fell by even more than the NW rose today and is now FOUR places below it AND in the middle watch zone that Nrth West briefly was.

South East, South West, West Midlands & Scotland remain in that middle watch zone - all up or down a tiny bit or in Scotland's case totally flat.

London remains entirely on its own in the lowest watch zone but also edged up a tiny bit today.

The gloomiest day on Zoe and for the Norh West in some time unfortunately.
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Bound to go UK a touch as we enter the winter months. It will remain flatish for sometime I think before numbers fall as we near Christmas.
38k official cases a day for 133 days since July is 5.3m Delta cases. Multiply by 3 for predicted Zoe cases of aroubd 15.9m.
 
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GREATER MANCHESTER TODAY CASES V POP SCORES

BOROUGH - CURRENT WEEKLY POP SCORE - Up/Down on day (LOWEST SCORE BEST) V POP SCORE Last Week & IF RISING THEN BY // CASES (c) TODAY v CASES LAST WEEK // POP SCORE RISE TODAY - UP TO - TOTAL POP SCORE OVER THE WHOLE PANDEMIC (LOWEST IS STILL BEST)


OLDHAM 290 (UP 6) V 250 RISING 40 // 70 c v 59 c // POP SCORE 30 * - UP TO 18,505 -* Lowest GM Pop Score today

MANCHESTER 309 (DOWN 1) V 290 RISING 19 // 192 c v 198 c // POP SCORE 35 - UP TO 18,197

STOCKPORT 351 (UP 27) V 311 RISING 40 // 162 c v 80 c // POP SCORE 55 - UP TO 16,908 - Lowest Pop Score in GM over all of the pandemic

BOLTON 366 (UP 14 ) V 315 RISING 51 // 141 c v 102 c // POP SCORE 49 - UP TO 17,581

TRAFFORD 386 (LEVEL) V 388 DOWN 2 // 111 c v 112 c // POP SCORE 47 - UP TO 17,373

WIGAN 395 (UP 18) V 399 DOWN 4 // 205 c v 145 c // POP SCORE 62 * - UP TO 18,152 - * Joint highest GM Pop Score today

TAMESIDE 396 (UP 2) V 394 RISING 2 // 119 c v 115 c // POP SCORE 53 - UP TO 18,057

BURY 410 (UP 15) V 337 RISING 73 // 105 c v 77 c // POP SCORE 55 - UP TO 17,844

SALFORD 422 (UP 22) V 311 RISING 111 // 161 c v 104 c // POP SCORE 62 * UP TO 18,432 * Joint highest GM Pop Score today

ROCHDALE 438 (UP 5) V 389 RISING 49 // 129 c v 116 c // POP SCORE 57 - UP TO 18,570 * and Highest in GM over all of the pandemic


STOCKPORT HAD AN EVEN WORSE DAY AGAIN AS ZOE HAD IT MILES BETTER THAN ALL NINE OTHER BOROUGHS NOW! BUT THAT SCORE LAST MONDAY WAS VERY SUSPICIOUSLY LOW. NOW GOING UP WEEK TO WEEK POP SCORE WISE AS ARE MOST OF GM

THOUGH WIGAN AND TRAFFORD ARE JUST ABOUT FALLING TODAY BY TINY NUMBERS

SALFORD RISING THE MOST - OVER 100 WEEK TO WEEK

EVEN OLDHAM UP AGAIN AND IT IS LOOKING LIKE NO BOROUGHS IN GM UNDER 300 AGAIN ANY DAY NOW.


Trafford actually GAINED another 8 Pop Score points back on Stockport today so the seemingly unassailable lead for the lowest Pop Score in GM across the entire pandemic is down to just 465. Baby steps!

At the other extreme of the Pop Score battle across the whole pandemic Oldham was best in GM again and took another 27 off Rochdale. Rochdale now leads Greater Manchester by 65.

Bury will make the 18K club by Thursday probably as number 7. By then there will just be Bolton,Stockport and Trafford in the 17K club

Rochdale is heading to be the first into the 19K club by the middle of next week.

Stockport is all alone in the 16K club for another two days at most on current numbers.
 
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BlueAnorak said:
The case data maps for the big UK cities are strange to see the least.

With the exception of Bristol, Belfast and Cardiff cases are much lower than out in the suburbs or the surrounding areas.
Either cases aren't being reported or the virus is finding new hosts more difficult to aquire due to previous infection.
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Not sure how it works but if you look at the Stockport area it is odd to see a semi rural village area like Poynton outscoring densely packed lower income housing areas like Adswood or Edgeley.

You might be right that reinfection in areas that have had high cases before is more difficult after the vaccines.

Stockport easily has the lowest numbers in GM across the pandemic (ahead of Trafford) but both have had huge numbers over past month or two that have now fallen as other areas are rising. The driver of those numbers was school children not the adults in these two areas that are the best vaccinated in GM too.

So the school age children were the last easy target perhaps for the virus and that same effect will have possibly played out in every borough everywhere. Hence we are seeing some strange lookng outbreak distributions.
 
WALES DATA

4 deaths - was 2 last week

1931 cases - was 1921 last week

13% positivity - was 14% last week

536 patients - was 594 last week

57 ventilated - was 59 last week

CASES STILL HIGH BUT HOSPITAL NUMBERS FALLING NOT RISING
 
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