Coronavirus (2021) thread

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mccity said:
No we don't, given the mutations apparently found in Omicron. It'll take a long time before we know for sure whether immunity (of whatever degree) to other variants gives immunity to Omicron. We know it's not the same but we don't know yet to what degree.
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I replied to the question below. The answer to that question is yes.

AlgarveBlu said:
Just been asked if with the new omicron variant whether you can get both the delta and the new variant at the same time assuming the new variant becomes as or more virulent than Delta ? - I have no idea - In the past I understood the Delta variants pushed out the other variants which was because they were fairly similar.

In summary, is it possible to have both variants in circulation and maybe even in your system at the same time and be contagious for both if Delta doesn't get pushed out by omicron eventually?
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I’ve had 3 Pfizer jabs now and only had a sore arm for a day after each, my wife had two AZ and then Pfizer booster and was ill for two days after each one, and she’s not soft.
 
Gotta say, the South Africa case data does look rather unsettling.

This is a log scale plot; you can see the delta waves for SA and UK almost overlaid, then look at the much more rapid growth now in SA.

Many caveats - I've no idea if there's increased testing, just for example. But the raw data doesn't look good at all.

Screenshot_20211129-224038_Chrome.jpg
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Gotta say, the South Africa case data does look rather unsettling.

This is a log scale plot; you can see the delta waves for SA and UK almost overlaid, then look at the much more rapid growth now in SA.

Many caveats - I've no idea if there's increased testing, just for example. But the raw data doesn't look good at all.

View attachment 30799
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If it really is as transmissible as they are suggesting, nothing is going to stop it going worldwide like wildfire.

Just got to hope it isn’t as deadly.
 
Alan Harper's Tash said:
If it really is as transmissible as they are suggesting, nothing is going to stop it going worldwide like wildfire.

Just got to hope it isn’t as deadly.
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I think it's too early to say for sure how transmissible it is, let alone deadly.

But you can see why people are reacting given that case curve.

Get jabbed, get your kids jabbed, get boosted.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Gotta say, the South Africa case data does look rather unsettling.

This is a log scale plot; you can see the delta waves for SA and UK almost overlaid, then look at the much more rapid growth now in SA.

Many caveats - I've no idea if there's increased testing, just for example. But the raw data doesn't look good at all.

View attachment 30799
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Although their Delta fell off a cliff from July, so Omicron ‘taking over’ could just be an artefact of opportunity and South African cases have actually fallen over the last 2 days, which is odd, given how it’s being described.
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
Although their Delta fell off a cliff from July, so Omicron ‘taking over’ could just be an artefact of opportunity and South African cases have actually fallen over the last 2 days, which is odd, given how it’s being described.
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Absolutely. Many caveats. Just trying to see why there's been such a big reaction, not at all suggesting it's certain or even likely to follow the same track here - I just don't know, personally, and I don't think there's data for anyone to predict with confidence.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Absolutely. Many caveats. Just trying to see why there's been such a big reaction, not at all suggesting it's certain or even likely to follow the same track here - I just don't know, personally, and I don't think there's data for anyone to predict with confidence.
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Couldn’t agree more but, initially at least, it certainly doesn’t look like the catastrophe it’s being painted as.
Still, if it gets vaccinations up and means we aren’t throwing anymore doses in the bin, all well and good.

On the topic of vaccines I hope that people understand the JVCI guidance won’t mean that 30 year olds who had second doses 3 months ago will get boosters tomorrow!
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
Although their Delta fell off a cliff from July, so Omicron ‘taking over’ could just be an artefact of opportunity and South African cases have actually fallen over the last 2 days, which is odd, given how it’s being described.
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the last 2 days will be weekend lag by the look of it. they dip and spike weekly a lot. need to keep an eye on 7 day average but that has the lag inherent in it.

ourworldindata.org

COVID-19 Data Explorer

Explore global data on COVID-19.
ourworldindata.org ourworldindata.org
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
Couldn’t agree more but, initially at least, it certainly doesn’t look like the catastrophe it’s being painted as.
Still, if it gets vaccinations up and means we aren’t throwing anymore doses in the bin, all well and good.

On the topic of vaccines I hope that people understand the JVCI guidance won’t mean that 30 year olds who had second doses 3 months ago will get boosters tomorrow!
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no, we won't, by choice.
 
marco said:
thats a very sad story and folk may learn from this but the only muppet connected to this is you sir infact i'd go a little further and call you a fucking bellend, he's paid the price of not having the vax
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Awful take. The vegan refuser was indeed a muppet.
 
grunge said:
the last 2 days will be weekend lag by the look of it. they dip and spike weekly a lot. need to keep an eye on 7 day average but that has the lag inherent in it.

ourworldindata.org

COVID-19 Data Explorer

Explore global data on COVID-19.
ourworldindata.org ourworldindata.org
Click to expand...
Although they’ve had very similar spikes before. The key metric is, as it always has been, hospitalisations and deaths. Given that Omicron must have been in the country for a couple of weeks, at least, the hospitalisations should be ramping up, if it’s worse than any other. I know it’s early days, but that doesn’t look to be happening at all, which is good news at least.
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
Although they’ve had very similar spikes before. The key metric is, as it always has been, hospitalisations and deaths. Given that Omicron must have been in the country for a couple of weeks, at least, the hospitalisations should be ramping up, if it’s worse than any other. I know it’s early days, but that doesn’t look to be happening at all, which is good news at least.
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Still early days to see what's happening with Omicron, but if you want to keep track you can go to this site and see each countries submission counts.

GISAID - hCov19 Variants

www.gisaid.org www.gisaid.org
I wouldn't put any stock into any of Africa's counts with such a low vaccination rate. I don't know if they weren't doing enough testing during Delta and only are doing now because of Omicron. I'd pay attention to other countries to see how fast it takes off. But if you go to the drop down menu at the top and look at other variants like Mu and Lambda who many people thought these were concerning you'd see the 4 week rates are really low. They haven't displaced Delta at all.
 
SA were also ‘due’ another wave (for want of a better term). It’s so far been every 6 months like clockwork in Gauteng where this outbreak is centred. So as others have said too many variables to make any sort of definitive statement either panicking or relaxed just yetF3530B91-8D59-4CC7-ACB8-590F309B9751.jpeg
 
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