Coronavirus (2021) thread

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England hospital numbers over the weekend rose from 5851 Friday to 5992 today. Up 141.

As usual they fell Saturday and rose over the next two days.

Last week they went from 5992 Friday to 6094 on Monday - a rise of 102.

Monday to Monday they are still down by 102 as you can see. The previous Monday to Monday were falls of 330 & 440 - so the numbers are levelling off but very slowly,

They usually fall slowly mid week but we will see if that still happens now the fall is so modest.

Full regional numbers on the data thread later.
 

Javid: Gap between infection and infectiousness may be shorter with Omicron​

‘Javid says scientists believes the "window between infection and infectiousness may be shorter" for the Omicron variant than Delta.’


That would be good news in my mind, I think.
 
Claytop said:

Javid: Gap between infection and infectiousness may be shorter with Omicron​

‘Javid says scientists believes the "window between infection and infectiousness may be shorter" for the Omicron variant than Delta.’


That would be good news in my mind, I think.
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That would be one reason why it would be more transmissible, but I don't follow why that could be good news?
 
336 omicron confirmed according to Javid.

Back of envelope sums:

*if* they are mainly community infections rather than travellers; *if* we are sequencing a third if all cases, then there's about 1000 community transmissions currently that are being picked up as covid positives.

*if* the very tentative initial view that the rate of spread here is similar to SA, these will treble weekly or thereabouts.

So around a month until omicron overtakes delta, with massive uncertainty. I'd guess that's maybe pessimistic, but who knows?

Past experience shows that the public reacts to surges by reducing contacts, so even if that pans out, it doesn't necessarily mean total covid cases will rise at the implied rate.

It also suggests that caution from government on messaging around parties, testing, WFH would be sensible to reduce the risk of drastic measures being necessary later. Particularly given current rising delta and the high risk Christmas period approaching.

And it's a completely open question whether severity is different to delta. Big spectrum of views out there on that ranging from panic over reported high rate of severe paeds cases to excitement over reported lower overall rate of severe illness. No conclusive hard data for some days yet at least, I think.

Get vaxxed, get boosted, get your kids vaxxed. Scots government suggesting daily lfts for all, which isn't a bad idea if we have capacity.
 
Why if it is so much more infective are numbers only inching up by a few a day? If its only about 40 of 40,000 cases last week in a day and 80 out of over 50,000 cases today added this looks very different from the steep vertical line on graphs in South Africa we get shown.

I know its early days and Delta is well established here but I expected thousands of Omicron cases by now a couple of weeks after starting to look for them.

I dont understand statistics enough to know why that expectation is obviously wrong. But presumably it must be.
 
Healdplace said:
Why if it is so much more infective are numbers only inching up by a few a day? If its only about 40 of 40,000 cases last week in a day and 50 out of over 50,000 cases today added this looks very different from the steep vertical line on graphs in South Africa we get shown.

I know its early days and Delta is well established here but I expected thousands of Omicron cases by now a couple of weeks after starting to look for them.

I dont understand statistics enough to know why that expectation is obviously wrong. But presumably it must be.
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we don’t genomic test every case, so there will be some lag there.

but I guess in the UK we have so many delta cases that omicron has less people to infect. Even with the boost of some immunity evasion that’s gotta be having an impact on numbers.
 
Healdplace said:
Why if it is so much more infective are numbes only inching up by a few a day? If its only about 40 of 40,000 cases last week in a day and 50 out of over 50,000 cases today added this looks very different from the steep vertical line on graphs in South Africa we get shown.

I know its early days and Delta is well established here but I expected thousands of Omicron cases by now a couple of weeks after starting to look for them.

I dont understand statistics enough to know why that expectation is obviously wrong. But presumably it must be.
Click to expand...

What's your source for the numbers 40 and 50? Javid quoting 336 today.

In general, we should expect exponential growth, so the rate of increase is proportional to the numbers already. A worst case scenario might be doubling every 3-4 days, which would equate to 40 cases this time last week being 160 cases today.

We don't expect growth of thousands before cases are airway in the thousands.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
What's your source for the numbers 40 and 50? Javid quoting 336 today.

In general, we should expect exponential growth, so the rate of increase is proportional to the numbers already. A worst case scenario might be doubling every 3-4 days, which would equate to 40 cases this time last week being 160 cases today.

We don't expect growth of thousands before cases are airway in the thousands.
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Here we go again, you’ve been expecting that for 6 months so no change there.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
What's your source for the numbers 40 and 50? Javid quoting 336 today.

In general, we should expect exponential growth, so the rate of increase is proportional to the numbers already. A worst case scenario might be doubling every 3-4 days, which would equate to 40 cases this time last week being 160 cases today.

We don't expect growth of thousands before cases are airway in the thousands.
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Sorry if I was not clear, I said 40 or 50 a day as it was 260 or so last Friday and is 336 today. So out of the 100,000 plus cases in the weekend that is at most 100 Omicron found. Just seems a low number considering it is so infective and seemingly been here for a few weeks. Was wondering if it is finding it harder to get a hold here than it obviously is in South Africa.
 
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Claytop said:

Javid: Gap between infection and infectiousness may be shorter with Omicron​

‘Javid says scientists believes the "window between infection and infectiousness may be shorter" for the Omicron variant than Delta.’


That would be good news in my mind, I think.
Click to expand...
It would certainly make it easier to trace.
 
Healdplace said:
Was wondering if it is finding it harder to get a hold here than it obviously is in South Africa.
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Probably not.

UKHSA analysis shows Rt of 2.7, but, to emphasise again, with wide uncertainty, see twitter below.

Very latest data from UKHSA:

1638820217423.png

If I wanted to be alarmist @True_Blue69 , I would claim it was rising 30 fold a week.

Need to be very careful over interpreting small numbers, but so far, this is consistent with the SA experience. Much uncertainty, but enough to take very seriously I think.

 
roubaixtuesday said:
Probably not.

UKHSA analysis shows Rt of 2.7, but, to emphasise again, with wide uncertainty, see twitter below.

Very latest data from UKHSA:

View attachment 31209

If I wanted to be alarmist @True_Blue69 , I would claim it was rising 30 fold a week.

Need to be very careful over interpreting small numbers, but so far, this is consistent with the SA experience. Much uncertainty, but enough to take very seriously I think.

Click to expand...

If it is 2.7, what kind of number are we looking at in Xmas week?
 
Alan Harper's Tash said:
If it is 2.7, what kind of number are we looking at in Xmas week?
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I think it's probably unhelpful to be specific on numbers, because uncertainty is so high, both on current prevalence, how much is down to travellers and rate of spread. And also the various possibilities on severity matter a lot.

The doubling time implied is of the order of 3-4 days, ie it would quadruple every week.

But I expect, as we've seen before, the public would react to such a rise by rapidly becoming more cautious, which would limit the rate. Perhaps even the government would too.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
I think it's probably unhelpful to be specific on numbers, because uncertainty is so high, both on current prevalence, how much is down to travellers and rate of spread. And also the various possibilities on severity matter a lot.

The doubling time implied is of the order of 3-4 days, ie it would quadruple every week.

But I expect, as we've seen before, the public would react to such a rise by rapidly becoming more cautious, which would limit the rate. Perhaps even the government would too.
Click to expand...
Fair enough. I’d done a quick calculation in my head.

It’s starting at the worst possible time really.
 
Healdplace said:
it was 260 or so last Friday and is 336 today.
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Not sure where your numbers are from, but you're normally spot on, so perhaps there are multiple conflicting sources. It's often the case early in this sort of event. Got a link?

The ones I've reported are from UKHSA, summarised by this guy (they seem to put them on twitter individually, I can't see this summarised anywhere official, but they do match up vs the UKHSA twitter account).

 
Thanks for the detail Roubaix. I was only citing numbers from what politicians were saying Friday and Today and approximately the ones I cited. That's all. Meaning they had confirmed around 260 last Friday and today it is 100 or so more. But in that interim peiod there had been at least 100,000 cases reported in the UK. It just seemed 100 new Omicron versus 99,900 Delta (presumably) was the tally of cases over past few days.

I know it is not that simple. The cases over the weekend will be from multiple dates and the Omicron ones will too.

But it just seemed a low percentage given that we have been looking for a couple of weeks now.

Though I realise 1% could be 10% by the weekend in the way of these things.
 
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