Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Chippy_boy]

Any reason?

Just call it the stiff-o-meter. That should placate him.

 

[unicorn]

HOSPITAL DATA


England only:-


PATIENTS:-

Patients down today by 51 to 2057 v 2588 last week :- lowest since 30 September

Peak was 34, 336 on 18 Jan (fall 32, 279 in 85 days)

Ventilators: down 4 to 333 v 406 last week :- lowest since 5 October

Peak was 3736 on 24 Jan (fall 3403 in 79 days)

There's a lot of "noise" in the case and hospital data at the moment with holidays, redefinitions of cases and so on, but the bigger picture is that the numbers in hospital continue to drop week-by-week. Looks very good.

 

[St.Pauli support]

if no men have had blood clot, why have the Americans stopped the men from having the vac?

Up to now we only have statistical abnormities that need checking but couldn't work out the mechanism of cerebral blood clotting.
We cannot scientifically exclude men from that risk until then.
We have a suspicion, not more.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Honestly, you sound like AZ's head of PR. Are you?

You do well know that regulators of new vaccines are aware that it's about efficacy of a new product and at the same time about safety,
for the reason that healthy women and men are given an artificial product although they might never get in touch with that virus.
I think this philosophy is not fully understood.

The CVST risk profile for men and older women is by far in favour of the vaccine, for younger women it is clearly not.

We have a workaround for CVST because we have different vaccines with different risk profiles.
IMO it would be irresponsible to ignore those scientific facts.

And tbh mate you're sounding like a PR spokesman for the US health authorities.

Most people I think would say that given the infinitesimally small risks of complications and blood clot deaths - and in your case 1 blood clot death from the J&J vaccine (FFS), the BEST outcome would be to vaccinate as many people as possible with absolutely anything you can get your hands on. The fewer the numbers of people who get vaccinated, the more deaths there are. Simple as that. Pausing vaccinations over such trivial numbers of complications not only deprives some people directly but also - and this is the key point - deters many thousands, millions perhaps - from getting vaccinated at all.

And if you want evidence that what I suggest is the right policy, just look at the UK's performance and where we are with daily deaths now compared to the rest of the EU. They paused, and look at them. We didn't and look at us.

It's about the only thing we got right in this whole sorry situation.

 

[Len Rum]

Awful figure but it really is a lot worse elsewhere.

It's 200k plus in Russia according to their official statistics agency https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-russia-toll-idUSKCN2AX272
400k plus according to some...

Coronavirus: How Russia glosses over its Covid death toll

The reality behind Russia's pandemic is most likely to be found in its excessive mortality rates.

www.bbc.com

At 200k deaths in Russia they're still a lot better than us per capita.
At the 'some say' figure of 400k they're about 20% worse than us per capita.
In world terms we are now being overtaken by smaller East European countries AND now Italy.
Other major countries around the world still have some way to go before they catch up with the UK.
So it isn't really 'a lot worse elsewhere' just yet.
I tend to look at the UK and think how much better we could and should have been i.e. one of the best in the world.

 

[marco]

These South African variant cases in London are a concern. It seems to boil down to one person who came here from Africa in February. Must be a few cases out there by now and probably still spreading which is shite as it’s thought it may be resistant to current vaccines being used here in the UK. Let’s hope it can be stopped in it’s tracks.

if its going back to February it could pop up anywhere now,the genie is out of the bottle

 

[splinter]

Just chatting to a bloke outside Sheffield pub who'd not had 1st jab yet. 60 years old, never registered with a GP, no NHS number which he thought was a problem. I told him he just needed proof of age; urged him to get it before we go inside pubs. Hopefully he's booked by now (though he was on his 5th pint). Quite a few missed like this I guess.

Why go get a jab when he can go get a pint sorry pints ;) and yes they'll be lots like this..

 

[Chippy_boy]

At 200k deaths in Russia they're still a lot better than us per capita.
At the 'some say' figure of 400k they're about 20% worse than us per capita.
In world terms we are now being overtaken by smaller East European countries AND now Italy.
Other major countries around the world still have some way to go before they catch up with the UK.
So it isn't really 'a lot worse elsewhere' just yet.
I tend to look at the UK and think how much better we could and should have been i.e. one of the best in the world.

In a bizarre twist, I find myself agreeing with you Len. I still look back to the beginning of this crisis when we had a 2 or 3 week window of opportunity ahead of the rest of Europe and Italy in particular and we squandered it, doing nothing and coming out with crap like the need to suppress the peak and "not going to early". I believe tens of thousands of people died needless because of that balls up. And it's been a constant theme of locking down too late, not enforcing restrictions hard enough, and coming out of lockdown too early. We pride ourselves as being one of the "free-est" nations on earth but in this case, it's done us no favours.

I think often about the situation in South Korea where they got infections before us. They have a similar population to us and a similar demographic in terms of age. (I don't know about BMI, to be fair.) But they know what they are doing because they were SARS-aware. They have 35 deaths per 1m of population. That is what "good" looks like.

By comparison, we are on about 1,800 deaths per 1m. We've done terribly, rescued only a bit by getting our act together with the vaccination program.

 

[unicorn]

Why go get a jab when he can go get a pint sorry pints ;) and yes they'll be lots like this..

To be honest I think the virus would be terrified of Pint Men like him, and since he seemed to live in the pub he's probably quite safe. But he was no vaccine denier.

 

[St.Pauli support]

And tbh mate you're sounding like a PR spokesman for the US health authorities.

Most people I think would say that given the infinitesimally small risks of complications and blood clot deaths - and in your case 1 blood clot death from the J&J vaccine (FFS), the BEST outcome would be to vaccinate as many people as possible with absolutely anything you can get your hands on. The fewer the numbers of people who get vaccinated, the more deaths there are. Simple as that. Pausing vaccinations over such trivial numbers of complications not only deprives some people directly but also - and this is the key point - deters many thousands, millions perhaps - from getting vaccinated at all.

And if you want evidence that what I suggest is the right policy, just look at the UK's performance and where we are with daily deaths now compared to the rest of the EU. They paused, and look at them. We didn't and look at us.

It's about the only thing we got right in this whole sorry situation.

What I heard from your PM yesterday and various scientists:
low UK covid death toll is a consequence of the hard lockdown, NOT vaccination. The pure impact of very high immunity % kicks in later, even in UK. IMO it's difficult to assess the pure impact though in such a multi factorial approach.

In terms of risk evaluation, we have a different view in terms of individual rights. It would be a very interesting debate why a country very much based on liberalism, UK - keeping the gov out of your free individual life as much as possible - shouldn't insist on individual young women's rights of health, if the risk of severe covid complications isn't much higher for them than CVST risks after vaccination.

Anyway, I'll never get an answer why it's so stupid to just go on vaccinating different people with different vaccines if we have the choice. IMO it's simple quality management.