Coronavirus (2021) thread

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BlueAnorak said:
He hasn't got a clue about case severity. No one has yet other than it looks like Omicron is much milder than Delta. The only issue is will infections × severity break UK hospital bed limits or will it prove to be a virus vaccine like cow pox?
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I’m struggling to see how it can be “as bad news as it can possibly get quite frankly” if Omicron turns out to be milder. Sure, it could be bad news if loads more get infected with it in terms of hospitalisations and we could have a problem with bed capacity at the worst possible time of year, but looking beyond that surely it’s good news going forward in terms of it not being as severe.
That’s assuming his quotes haven’t been taken out of context and he indeed has said that in response to it being put to him that it could be a milder strain.
 
BlueAnorak said:
Positivity rate is rocketing. But that's probably because most test are performed on people being admitted to hospital.
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Are they? Would that not mean over 35,000 people being admitted to hospital yesterday? From the figures I can see, 'only' 435 people were admitted for Covid yesterday. Have to admit, trying to find out what's happening on the ground in South Africa is extremely difficult. The WHO sent its own team in last week and we haven't heard a peep from them. :-)
 
UK PATIENTS:-


ENGLAND 6130 , N IRELAND 338 , SCOTLAND 578 , WALES 375

UK TOTAL 7421 (UP 72)


VENTILATORS:-


ENGLAND 792 , N IRELAND 30, SCOTLAND 39 , WALES 36

UK TOTAL 897 (UP 9)
 
BlueHammer85 said:
Professor Edmunds, who is a member of SPI-B the group that advises SAGE on behavioural science, said he expected the new variant would cause a large number of cases, hospitalisations and deaths over the next two months.

He also rejected the idea that the spread of Omicron could end up being a "Christmas gift" if it turned out to cause a milder form of disease.

"This is as bad news as you can possibly get quite frankly," he said.
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That prick wants 5 year olds vaccinated and said this in Sept, please never quote him again:


Prof Edmunds, of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said the country faces a prolonged period of high infection rates as the virus continues to spread after restrictions are eased.

He told BBC Radio 4: ‘I think this wave of the epidemic will be quite long and drawn out.

‘My hunch is that we are looking at a high level of incidence for a protracted period right through the summer and probably through much of the autumn.

‘We started easing restrictions before everybody was vaccinated. That is going to lead to infections in the unvaccinated people – primarily in this instance the younger individuals. It is inevitable that that was going to happen.’

Prof Edmunds said cases could reach 100,000 a day within weeks.

He added: ‘We are at about 50,000 a day now. The epidemic has been doubling roughly every two weeks and so if we allow things as they are for another couple of weeks you could expect it to get to 100,000 cases a day.’
 
True_Blue69 said:
That prick wants 5 year olds vaccinated and said this in Sept, please never quote him again:


Prof Edmunds, of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said the country faces a prolonged period of high infection rates as the virus continues to spread after restrictions are eased.

He told BBC Radio 4: ‘I think this wave of the epidemic will be quite long and drawn out.

‘My hunch is that we are looking at a high level of incidence for a protracted period right through the summer and probably through much of the autumn.

‘We started easing restrictions before everybody was vaccinated. That is going to lead to infections in the unvaccinated people – primarily in this instance the younger individuals. It is inevitable that that was going to happen.’

Prof Edmunds said cases could reach 100,000 a day within weeks.

He added: ‘We are at about 50,000 a day now. The epidemic has been doubling roughly every two weeks and so if we allow things as they are for another couple of weeks you could expect it to get to 100,000 cases a day.’
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I think that quote actually comes from July, not September, and let's face it, like most predictors, they get some things right and some things wrong. He was wrong about reaching such high numbers but was right that the Delta wave would be protracted. If he gave me the lottery numbers, I reckon I might, just might, win ten pounds...
 
Gabriel said:
I think that quote actually comes from July, not September, and let's face it, like most predictors, they get some things right and some things wrong. He was wrong about reaching such high numbers but was right that the Delta wave would be protracted. If he gave me the lottery numbers, I reckon I might, just might, win ten pounds...
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If you go by Zoe app we hit 91k a day cases in October not including the 20% asymptomatic.
 
Going to be a lot of bankruptcies in the hospitality industry. Bookings have just fallen of a cliff. Just been in a restaurant with my girls tonight having our pre Christmas meal. A week ago the restaurant was fully booked tonight it was 1/5 full
 
PannickAtTheDisco said:
Depends on how many blood clots and myocarditis incidents you want to report and include.

We'd be even better if they provable worked for more than 3 months without any side effects and we didn't need the same jab as a booster every time there's a new variant despite it not being adapted or tested against it.

Maybe if the 2 jabs just worked then fewer vaccinated and unvaccinated people would have less doubts.
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Oh wow. You’re one of them.
 
marcus said:
So make the vaccine totally mandatory then?
partially in agreement to be honest.

the whole conversation has veered from me initially pulling up someone whos words (i think without double checking) were “fuck em, send em home and let em die”. Which i likened to to the usual keyboard warrior statement of “if it was me id have leathered em”. Which they wouldnt do on either count

we have an NHS that treats everyone as we all pay in and you cant start changing the rules.
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You can’t change rules? Not heard that one. Is it in the Magna Carta?

Don’t accuse others of nonsense when you are head of the class fella, in the corner you go:-)
 
Back in Sep Sage predicted a best case scenario of 2000 to 7000 hospital admissions a day and a worst case of 10s of thousand a day by mid October. When in fact we never reached a thousand.

Then we got predictions of up to 60000 people dying of influenza this winter, I could be wrong but as yet i havent seen widespread flu deaths reported as yet although accept winter has only just started.

I am hopeful and expect that Omnicron wont be anywhere near as bad as they are making out, early indications are it is a mild illness in RSA which results in few critical care hospital admissions, but we are not RSA as our vaccination rate is much greater. That said the extra precautions are sensible at this stage until we can confirm the above. Just a shame that so many in the hospitality sector will suffer again.
 
I wonder why the mutations seen in Omicron have not been seen in other strains? Hints at an immune-compromised source? If the individual mutations that define Omicron were advantageous then we would have seen them before on purely a statistical basis? In which case I think that each mutation is possibly deleterious or neutral and it is only when they are combined that it confers advantage. This suggests that for it form it would need to be in a single host?
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
Back in Sep Sage predicted a best case scenario of 2000 to 7000 hospital admissions a day and a worst case of 10s of thousand a day by mid October. When in fact we never reached a thousand.

Then we got predictions of up to 60000 people dying of influenza this winter, I could be wrong but as yet i havent seen widespread flu deaths reported as yet although accept winter has only just started.

I am hopeful and expect that Omnicron wont be anywhere near as bad as they are making out, early indications are it is a mild illness in RSA which results in few critical care hospital admissions, but we are not RSA as our vaccination rate is much greater. That said the extra precautions are sensible at this stage until we can confirm the above. Just a shame that so many in the hospitality sector will suffer again.
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SAGE predict all sorts of nonsense which is then used to fuck up people's lives. The situation we are in is totally mental.
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
Back in Sep Sage predicted a best case scenario of 2000 to 7000 hospital admissions a day and a worst case of 10s of thousand a day by mid October. When in fact we never reached a thousand.

Then we got predictions of up to 60000 people dying of influenza this winter, I could be wrong but as yet i havent seen widespread flu deaths reported as yet although accept winter has only just started.

I am hopeful and expect that Omnicron wont be anywhere near as bad as they are making out, early indications are it is a mild illness in RSA which results in few critical care hospital admissions, but we are not RSA as our vaccination rate is much greater. That said the extra precautions are sensible at this stage until we can confirm the above. Just a shame that so many in the hospitality sector will suffer again.
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The easy bit is the growth rate. We also now know that the boosters should work. In fact if the Pfizer CEO is right, then the boosters will not only prevent serious illness they will protect against infection, or may be I read too much into his soundbites. The unknown seems to be the clinical effects. I struggle to understand why if it's more transmissible it is at the same time less virulent? I thought the spike protein's job was to fuse to the human cell so if it is better at doing that, how can it be milder?
 
Marvin said:
I wonder why the mutations seen in Omicron have not been seen in other strains? Hints at an immune-compromised source? If the individual mutations that define Omicron were advantageous then we would have seen them before on purely a statistical basis? In which case I think that each mutation is possibly deleterious or neutral and it is only when they are combined that it confers advantage. This suggests that for it form it would need to be in a single host?
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Or that it moved out of human to an animal and then came back into humans again and thus we haven’t seen the genetic evolution as deer/spring bok etc aren’t tested in the same way.
 
SWP's back said:
Or that it moved out of human to an animal and then came back into humans again and thus we haven’t seen the genetic evolution as deer/spring bok etc aren’t tested in the same way.
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That works! I think the immune-compromised human host is more likely though as I think it's more or less proven that this has happened before.
 
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