Coronavirus (2021) thread

[BlueAnorak]

The stated expectation is for an increase in cases as we open up over the next two months, ie Test and Trace is not expected to cope with current variants, let alone a new one.

Policy is *not* to keep cases at current or lower levels. You could argue that it should be, but that would probably require radical changes to test and trace and isolate, and probably more or longer restrictions too.

Not having that.
They were genome sequencing 10% of 9600 cases a month ago - so with 2672 cases they should be able to sequence 35% now

 

[grunge]

The UK strain is the one causing the surge in India.
Now Test & Trace works, I'm pretty sure that surge testing will deal with mutating variation.
As the number of cases overall is falling we also need to genome sequence test more than the 10% we currently do.

in Maharashtra ( a large province of India where Mumbai is ) 60% of cases are the double mutant. its clearly spreading quickly.

Double mutant SARS-CoV-2 virus found in over 60 percent of samples in Maharashtra survey

However, as this is a very small size, experts say it cannot be considered as an indication of spread of the mutated virus.

www.firstpost.com

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Not having that.
They were genome sequencing 10% of 9600 cases a month ago - so with 2672 cases they should be able to sequence 35% now

I think we're at cross purposes.

We have the capability to track an outbreak, absolutely agree.

We don't have the capability to contain an outbreak (of an immune escape variant) without significant restrictions ie not just through test, track, isolate.

 

[Marvin]

Is t reassuring that the India's near neighbours are not witnessing the same explosive growth in their epidemic?

In Bangladesh the epidemic is falling. In Pakistan it's going up but not remarkably. This suggests that this new variant may not be a game changer? Tenuous evidence! I am waiting for something nasty to emerge. Trueblue made the point earlier that so far nothing more serious than the SA variant had emerged and this is true....as far as we know.

I feel safe now with my one jab but I want out of this as I am sure everyone does. Weary of it all. I thought when the vaccines were authorised that would be it but the variants have knocked confidence, probably correctly too. We will certainly end up winning this battle but I'd rather do it this Summer than have things stretched onwards. Sorry. Nothing of importance to say. Just a watching brief on India.

 

[Marvin]

I think we're at cross purposes.

We have the capability to track an outbreak, absolutely agree.

We don't have the capability to contain an outbreak (of an immune escape variant) without significant restrictions ie not just through test, track, isolate.

test and trace must have a very good idea already what the impact is of India and South African variant in the vaccinated population. Inactivity would normally suggest we should not fear but past experience does not give one confidence (Kent strain - we seemed to sit on that for a long time).

 

[Toney’s bookie]

 

[Healdplace]

Thanks for the update. Having a busy day.

 

[Healdplace]

975, 905 pillar 1 & 2 tests

Versus 914, 804 last Friday for 554 more cases.

 

[Healdplace]

Regional Cases Today


Also v 7 days ago (all were MINUS numbers last Friday if you recall so a one off Pop Score disaster for all regions today). Back to normal tomorrow hopefully with little damage.


SOUTH

East down 6 to 216 v MINUS 616

London UP 65 to 380 v MINUS 796 (London had the worst numbers in UK today and big wk to wk crash)

South East down 35 to 236 v MINUS 1030

South West UP 25 to 126 v MINUS 683




MIDLANDS

East down down 14 to 227 v MINUS 289

West UP 9 to 224 v MINUS 673



NORTH

North East down 4 to 90 v MINUS 170

Yorkshire down 43 to 368 v MINUS 63 - so the best week to week day here as had the smallest fall last week

And, NORTH WEST UP 44 to 318 v MINUS 955 - so big jump week to week with only SE having a bigger shift.

Pop Scores across the NW and in GM will take a hiding today.

 

[ayrshire_blue]