Coronavirus (2021) thread

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RACHACE said:
Felt dodgy yesterday, got up for work and feel worse so done at home NHS Antigen covid test which has come back positive.
I have to self isolate but I also need to do a PCR test. There's a test centre 5 minutes away from me. Am I allowed to go to this test centre?

Apologies for my ignorance on this. I suppose I should really know exactly what to do.
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Yes but only in vehicle. Get one sent through the post if you can't. Either way your isolation starts from yesterday regardless.
Best wishes for a speedy recovery.
 
news.sky.com

COVID-19: Omicron currently infecting 200,000 a day - as COVID passport changes announced

Sajid Javid said children aged 12-15 will now have their jabs registered on the NHS COVID pass for international travel and people in England will need two jabs and a booster to get into large venues, or a negative lateral flow test.
news.sky.com news.sky.com

So is this modelling miles off? 20% of cases would make 1mill covid cases a day?

Real life data is circa 50k a day.
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
news.sky.com

COVID-19: Omicron currently infecting 200,000 a day - as COVID passport changes announced

Sajid Javid said children aged 12-15 will now have their jabs registered on the NHS COVID pass for international travel and people in England will need two jabs and a booster to get into large venues, or a negative lateral flow test.
news.sky.com news.sky.com

So is this modelling miles off? 20% of cases would make 1mill covid cases a day?

Real life data is circa 50k a day.
Click to expand...

I think the 200,000 refers to new infections, not reported cases.

IIRC we detect about 40% of infections as confirmed cases?

So if there are 200,000, that's about 80,000 of those will be reported as cases.

Delay to symptoms 4 days? A couple of days to get tested and result reported.

So *if* the 200,000 is correct, you'd see 80,000 reported in 6 days or so. Apparently that's just omicron, not total incl delta. So 130,000 or so in total.

Seems a little high, but not out of the question. Would expect those figures before too long.

FWIW it seems very confusing to mention a figure in this way.
 
Claytop said:
Tbf if there’s 200k a day it must be pretty mild as no fuckers realising it…
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At the moment it's doubling every two days.

That means four days ago it was 50,000.

It takes four days for symptoms to emerge.

So the number of people with symptoms is far less than the number infected.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
At the moment it's doubling every two days.

That means four days ago it was 50,000.

It takes four days for symptoms to emerge.

So the number of people with symptoms is far less than the number infected.
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It’ll be interesting to see how many people stay away from the game tonight.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
I think the 200,000 refers to new infections, not reported cases.

IIRC we detect about 40% of infections as confirmed cases?

So if there are 200,000, that's about 80,000 of those will be reported as cases.

Delay to symptoms 4 days? A couple of days to get tested and result reported.

So *if* the 200,000 is correct, you'd see 80,000 reported in 6 days or so. Apparently that's just omicron, not total incl delta. So 130,000 or so in total.

Seems a little high, but not out of the question. Would expect those figures before too long.

FWIW it seems very confusing to mention a figure in this way.
Click to expand...
I thought the 200,000 referred to people ‘currently infected with’ as opposed to ‘infected on this day with’, though that might just be my interpretation.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
At the moment it's doubling every two days.

That means four days ago it was 50,000.

It takes four days for symptoms to emerge.

So the number of people with symptoms is far less than the number infected.
Click to expand...
So we should be detecting about 20k of Omicron cases today then?….
 
Rammy Blue said:
I’d guess mate that it’ll be down to levels of illness which we just don’t know about yet.

Wouldn‘t surprise me if this was the last home game we get to see in person for a while though.
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Of course we need more data but doesn’t seem to be any need to stop fans going etc currently.
 
Claytop said:
So we should be detecting about 20k of Omicron cases today then?….
Click to expand...

Don't think so, there's also the factor of how many samples are sequenced and how long that takes.

Just from memory, we sequence I think 25% of PCR tests??

And it takes a couple more days for those results than the basic PCR? So another doubling.

So you might expect to report 8x fewer omicron than there are omicron cases within the headline figure??

Which gives just 2.5k official omicron reported.

All very rough, and doubtless wrong in various ways.

(There's also SGTF reporting which is faster and I think higher coverage)

All of which goes to show how difficult it is to have consistent, simple figures when something is changing this fast.

I hope and expect those doubling times to increase a lot now contacts are being limited whether by necessity (eg utd game), voluntary (people being careful) or compulsory (govt wfh edict etc).
 
10 yesterday 250 today in hospital with the new variant must be because we have more older people in this country than South Africa for it to go up this much and it is serious for the older people.
 
I might of missed it but it’s early days so i’m presuming it’s just not been released.

But the talk of Omnicron being milder, that’s confirmed as seperate to any population based immunity and not due to it?

I’m presuming vaccination, prior infection or hybrid immunity on top of that would reduce hospitalisations again?
 
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