Coronavirus (2021) thread

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The level of communication is concerning. South Africa is apparently testing patients when they present, irrespective of the problem, so it’s going to lead to higher numbers in hospital with Omicron. Javid should say what the NHS policy is and how that has an impact on the numbers. I appreciate that they want to drive people to get vaccinated, but they need to be accurate in how they relay the situation.
 
grunge said:
the data he links too is the real data from the Denmark government.

Having taken a look I’m not convinced it’s as bad as being described tho as it’s taking a lot about people being positive witching 48h of being in hospital. it’s unclear to me if that means “they know they have covid but the omicron test took 48 hours” or incidental cases.
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So did that guy who did the assessment of South Africa and said no restrictions are needed. He was quickly shot down as being ‘political’ by said poster.
 
Sir John Bell (Oxford) just said on Radio 4 that they’re anticipating the results of a large study from South Africa later today. Should inform us better about the severity and symptoms of Omicron.
 
grunge said:
the data he links too is the real data from the Denmark government.

Having taken a look I’m not convinced it’s as bad as being described tho as it’s taking a lot about people being positive witching 48h of being in hospital. it’s unclear to me if that means “they know they have covid but the omicron test took 48 hours” or incidental cases.
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Denmark should have excellent data because they sequence more than anyone else, we're just behind them in the world stakes on that. Funnily enough the Omicron epicentres now are here and in Denmark.

I have no doubt that current Omicron cases are going to be far higher, probably 10x higher in many respects because sequencing only happens in perhaps 5-10% of tests. That is acceptable though because we test perhaps over 10% of the population on a weekly basis.

It's very likely that we'll start to see testing quirks in the data now where Omicron seems rare in other countries but that's actually only a product of a lack of testing and a subsequent lack of sequencing.

In any event, positivity rates have been climbing rapidly over the last month so it seems that Omicron is taking hold.
 
Del_Bosque said:
I might of missed it but it’s early days so i’m presuming it’s just not been released.

But the talk of Omnicron being milder, that’s confirmed as seperate to any population based immunity and not due to it?

I’m presuming vaccination, prior infection or hybrid immunity on top of that would reduce hospitalisations again?
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Too soon to know.
Its milder but it will have to be many times mider between 9 and 12.25 or (3.5 squared) for hospitalisations not to swamp the NHS with Omicron patients.
3.5 is the vurrent case doubling rate in days for Omicron in the UK.
9 is a number picked out of the air for hospitalisations not to swanp the NHS around the 10th week of doubling just before herd immunity hits in week 11. This assumes Delta drying up fairly quickly as well.
The reported mildnrss of Omicron from SA (1/9th as bad as Delta) would be just about the level required to prevent the NHS being swamped. But that is SA we are the UK with a lot of vulnerable people between 64.13 and and 81.2(the average life span in both SA and UK).
We will know whether lockdown is required in mid to late Jan before Christmas.
 
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Rammy Blue said:
I’d guess mate that it’ll be down to levels of illness which we just don’t know about yet.

Wouldn‘t surprise me if this was the last home game we get to see in person for a while though.
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Ffs, the first year for a while we were getting a Boxing Day game as well, do you think the pubs and restaurants will close?
 
splinter said:
Just a matter of time till its all suspended mate..this can't go on like this ?
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There was me thinking earlier that might not get to see the Leicester game on Boxing Day, more that we won’t be allowed to go, never mind they might not be playing the games!
 
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