Coronavirus (2021) thread

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blueinsa said:
No it’s been a recurrent theme in the multitude of tweets we have seen.

At least the goalposts have been moved now which I’ve no doubt will help with the plan C or whatever it is they will call it.
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It’s almost as if the scientists are working with live data and can’t give an accurate time of when useful data will be produced.
 
ell said:
Chris Whitty yesterday praised the South African scientists and medics, then immediately went on to rubbish everything they've said, weird.
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Part of me thinks there's more than a hint of casual racism / imperialism going on here, even if it's subconscious.

I mean, they couldn't be on the ball and know what they're talking about could they. It's dirty backwards Africa...
 
inbetween said:
Delta seemed far more severe than previous variants and it gave a much higher viral load however in vaccinated people it caused less symptoms and for many none at all. You could argue that today Delta is a less severe variant than in April because we've had no restrictions for the last 6 months.

Don't forget though that Delta emerged at a time when fewer were vaccinated, that isn't true now which is why Omicron may spread even more freely but it won't cause severe symptoms for most because they're already protected.

The reason again for this is immunity. If Omicron was truly milder then it'd make no differentiation between you being asymptomatic or sending certain people to hospital. Instead though the exact same pattern is being followed where if you're already ill, vulnerable or immunocompromised then this can become a very severe disease and not a mild one.

The only reason to use boosters at the moment is to prevent 'some' infections but also to prevent severe disease which Omicron can and will cause in some if they're not protected.
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A huge increase in immunity since the delta outbreak is part of the explanation but it's also very possible that omicron is intrinscially milder. That is what the Hong Kong study of lung tissue suggests to me. They found a 10 fold reduction in the replication of omicron in lung tissue as opposed to delta. Their authors cautioned though that it was still capable of causing severe illness and it may even cause more severe illness if it is more contagious.
 
JamesMCFC said:
This is a daft question but I will ask anyway.

If a new variant comes along and it's weaker than Omicron, is it safe to presume the virus is dying out? Or could we say get a new weaker variant and after that, a stronger one turns up?
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New variants are just slight adaptations really. They often are milder, but not always so. Spanish flu is the classic example of mutations that were worse. In the same way that you have good and bad flu seasons, we'll probably have good or bad covid seasons for the rest of time, but the important bit is that you have a population with some immunity and boosters that can be adapted every year.

www.usatoday.com

Fact check: Yes, viruses can mutate to become more deadly

A viral tweet shared online falsely claims viruses never mutate to become more lethal.
www.usatoday.com
 
inbetween said:
Delta seemed far more severe than previous variants and it gave a much higher viral load however in vaccinated people it caused less symptoms and for many none at all. You could argue that today Delta is a less severe variant than in April because we've had no restrictions for the last 6 months but it hasn't become less severe.

The reason again for this is immunity. If Omicron was truly milder then it'd make no differentiation between you being asymptomatic or sending certain people to hospital. Instead though the exact same pattern is being followed where if you're already ill, vulnerable or immunocompromised then this can be a very severe disease and not a mild one.

The only reasons to use boosters at the moment are to prevent 'some' infections but they primarily also prevent severe disease which Omicron can and will cause in some if they're not protected.
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Please do not think my reply to you was in any way saying don’t worry about omicron or being vaccinated, we should absolutely do both. The news from SA is relatively positive tho than first thought when this “vaccine evading” variant took off. Vaccines are still incredibly important in protecting against severe illness within omicron and other variants and we should try and limit contact to stop it spreading so rapidly, however it does look like it’s killing nowhere near the same amount of people and it’s burning out on the cape.

Fingers crossed.
 
Octavian said:
Weren’t AZ doing it for non profit though? So they haven’t lost out in any sort of margin.
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Only for a set period, which I'm pretty sure has now lapsed. Pfizer has the contracts with the EU for future development and production. Boosters, annual jabs, pills etc. And the EU is the biggest exporter of pharma. The people who developed the vaccine were badly served by AZ in my opinion.
 
Alan Harper's Tash said:
It’s almost as if the scientists are working with live data and can’t give an accurate time of when useful data will be produced.
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Theu would do well to stay off twitter then until such a time they are confident of the accuracy on their figures would be my best advice ;-)
 
BobKowalski said:
Only for a set period, which I'm pretty sure has now lapsed. Pfizer has the contracts with the EU for future development and production. Boosters, annual jabs, pills etc. And the EU is the biggest exporter of pharma. The people who developed the vaccine were badly served by AZ in my opinion.
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I don’t know about the set period or not to be fair.
 
johnnymarrsbarres said:
The woman at Oxford who led the development of the AZ jab want's knighting.
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She did indeed get knighted - meet Dame Sarah Gilbert

en.wikipedia.org

Sarah Gilbert - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

johnnymarrsbarres said:
As does whoever is in charge of logistics at AZ to get it rolling into production so quickly.
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CBE for Mark Proctor

Eight AstraZeneca UK employees recognised in The Queen’s Birthday Honours for their outstanding achievements in life sciences during the pandemic

www.astrazeneca.com www.astrazeneca.com
 
johnnymarrsbarres said:
Part of me thinks there's more than a hint of casual racism / imperialism going on here, even if it's subconscious.

I mean, they couldn't be on the ball and know what they're talking about could they. It's dirty backwards Africa...
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We have form for this. Back in the beginning we ignored the data from Italy. It wasn't until we had our own cases and studies that we realised the Italians were right about the virus we were facing. We were working on the basis it was like flu and modelling accordingly.
 
Marvin said:
A huge increase in immunity since the delta outbreak is part of the explanation but it's also very possible that omicron is intrinscially milder. That is what the Hong Kong study of lung tissue suggests to me. They found a 10 fold reduction in the replication of omicron in lung tissue as opposed to delta. Their authors cautioned though that it was still capable of causing severe illness and it may even cause more severe illness if it is more contagious.
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The 'mildness' is only relevant for vaccinated people and that's because our immunity from vaccination or a previous infection is solely responsible for making this infection mild.

In reality is there evidence to argue that boosters aren't necessary and unvaccinated people shouldn't get vaccinated because this variant is milder? Absolutely not.
 
Elbow beards said:
The way I understand it, if omicron does turn out to be milder, it would be the result of a happy accident that it's mutated that way, because there was no evolutionary pressure for it to do that. So by the same measure, it could accidentally mutate to be more severe again.
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This is exactly right. Albeit inconvenient.
 
Alan Harper's Tash said:
Maybe. Then the YouTube educated scientists fill the information void with nonsense.
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Wouldn’t know. Seriously though way too many proclaim things as fact so early on in the face of real world data from South Africa and I’m afraid so far, much of what they claim as facts is not coming to fruition, thankfully.
 
Has anyone managed to get hold of any lateral flow tests?

We're going to the in-laws on Tuesday for Christmas and we've all agreed to do tests etc, especially as there will be a couple of grannies there.

NHS ordering page has been down for about 4 days and our local chemist hasn't had any either, bit of a piss take.
 
johnnymarrsbarres said:
The Culture Recovery Fund saved a lot of jobs and businesses (mine included) but it's nowhere near enough, and the problem now is while live music can go ahead as normal, the confusion and fear tactics deployed by the government to 'ask' people to stay at home etc without forcibly closing businesses, means people stop spending money *and* the sector has no support.
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I hear you mate.

Yours and my industry (travel) continually have to bear the brunt of ever changing guidelines and restrictions.
People can't even give gig tickets away at the moment.

Yet the Government seems either oblivious or ignorant (maybe both) to our financial plight, with zero help forthcoming for our sectors.
 
johnnymarrsbarres said:
Has anyone managed to get hold of any lateral flow tests?

We're going to the in-laws on Tuesday for Christmas and we've all agreed to do tests etc, especially as there will be a couple of grannies there.

NHS ordering page has been down for about 4 days and our local chemist hasn't had any either, bit of a piss take.
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Ordered some yesterday, arrived this morning.
 
Bluewonder said:
I'm not your mate and yes I am.
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thumbs-up-sarcastic.gif
 
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