Coronavirus (2021) thread

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And finally, an article stating Omicron produced an 80% lower risk of hospitalisation in RSA compared to Delta.

www.bloomberg.com

Omicron Has 80% Lower Risk of Hospitalization in South Africa

South Africans contracting Covid-19 in the current fourth wave of infections are 80% less likely to be hospitalized if they catch the omicron variant, compared with other strains, according to a study released by the National Institute for Communicable Diseases.
www.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com
 
roubaixtuesday said:
I assume you mean a pfizer/ Moderna dose on top of two AZ? Almost no-one has had three AZ.
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Doesn’t say that but I know what you mean. I’ve had AZ x 2 and then Pfizer but maybe they have tested it for those countries that can’t roll out Pfizer or Moderna due to the storage conditions?
 
roubaixtuesday said:
I'm not sure the Ferguson paper from yesterday has been understood.

The intrinsic severity of the infection from omicron is estimated down only 30% compared to delta (0.72 hazard ratio for overnight hospital admission).

This is obviously better than no reduction, but not transformative. Indeed, it's far less significant than the transmission advantage. It's also near identical to estimates from SA, so consistent.

Most of the observed reduction in severity is rather down to the fact that there are far more reinfections and infections of vaccinated people.

Interestingly, booster jabs seem to give no better protection against hospitalisation once infected than double jabbing - but they do give substantial protection against infection, so overall massively reduce your risk.

Overall, I think this is consistent with the emerging picture. Omicron is probably a little less severe intrinsically, but much more transmissible. It readily escapes immunity, however vaccination and/or prior infection offer good protection vs hospitalisation. This means the apparent severity is much lower, because most infected people are well protected vs severe disease.

There's still a lot of uncertainty on the numbers in the paper as there have been few hospitalisation to date. There's far more uncertainty still on the progress of the wave, which depends on behaviour. It's starting to look as though there's been a marked reduction in contacts, which helps enormously. Reported numbers will now also be all over the place through the holiday period.

As an aside, it's amusing to find the people who normally find Ferguson's work unspeakable lauding this paper!


I've not read the Scottish one. Anyone who has done care to comment?

[Edit: meant to add that it's quite a complex analysis, so I may well have got some of this wrong. Happy to be corrected if so]
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I’m genuinely amazed he’s still fronting stuff like this.

Surely they could stick someone else front and centre.
 
Invisible Man's Bandage said:
Doesn’t say that but I know what you mean. I’ve had AZ x 2 and then Pfizer but maybe they have tested it for those countries that can’t roll out Pfizer or Moderna due to the storage conditions?
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Probably just the telegraph mangling the data. I'd guess whatever their source is has researched 2xAZ + 1xPfizer
 
Del_Bosque said:
I’m genuinely amazed he’s still fronting stuff like this.

Surely they could stick someone else front and centre.
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Just because the press have a target doesn't mean the target has done anything wrong.

He's a highly respected scientist, whatever the Telegraph print.
 
SWP's back said:
Good news from north of the wall. Looks like the booster gives great added protection against symptomatic omicron.


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BBC radio just conveyed that news but then added on that hospital's could still be overwhelmed, due to it being more infectious and its mainly young people that have caught it so far and it's unknown what it will do to the elderly.

Scaremongering to fuck.
 
jaseirai said:
Professor clueless is busy editing his ancient fortran code for the omega variant.
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And, right on cue, anonymous from bluemoon throws insults at internationally regarded scientist.

It'll get you likes from the likeminded, which I guess is your purpose.
 
Invisible Man's Bandage said:
I've seen the opposite. It's not a great look disposing of vaccines so it may well be that they are using that as an excuse. It is a fact that the Serum Institute is reducing production due to lack of demand and they are the leading manufacturer for countries other than the West.

In countries where life expectancy is relatively low and which have extremely limited resources to deliver vaccines outside of major conurbations then its unrealistic to think that they can do what wealthy Western countries can do.

Is that fair? No it isn't but how can that be changed anytime soon?
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The fact we completely rubbished the AZ vaccine and wouldn't give it to most of our population probably doesn't help, the fact the other vaccines are 10x the cost too.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Probably just the telegraph mangling the data. I'd guess whatever their source is has researched 2xAZ + 1xPfizer
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No, that isn’t the case. Can’t link it as the app is playing up but it is an Oxford University study and they have direct quotes from Professor Sir John Bell, who led it. It’s just waiting to be peer reviewed.
 


And exactly as thought. Good luck to governments encouraging this demographic to take up boosters or further vaccines going forward. They have fucked it for themselves with poor messaging and restrictions.

Falkirk FC btw, separate from this. 380 fans allowed at their boxing day match, but their bar/lounge is open and live streaming the game. It's an absolute nonsense.
 
Meanwhile, probably more important than the relatively modest reduction in severity reported, the exponential growth seems to be, at last, tailing off.

This makes much more difference than the severity to peak hospitalisation.

Very hard to know to what extent it's reporting related, but more and more convincing that the restrictions, whether voluntary, compulsory or just closure related are making a significant impact.

 
Tim of the Oak said:
The big reality checks are probably around Covid showing up that we have too few hospital beds, insufficient workforce with the appropriate skills and inadequate collaboration between healthcare providers eg to staff Nightingales - to cope with simple or bigger pandemics in the future.
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There may also have to be a rethink about the role of care provision in society more widely. We all know that some will be looking for scapegoats from the public inquiries, but the more important thing will be to identify the underlying problems and fix those so that care becomes more holistic and meets the demands of the population.
 
The BBC still saying 'might' about any hospital reduction this morning. That ship has sailed. It did so in most eyes at least a week ago but is now on the other side of the ocean. Maybe they are afraid they will have to find a new story to keep people hooked by doing journalism. God help us if an asteroid ever heads this way and we have to listen to the BBC for months telling us as it sails off into the galaxy that there remains a possibility it might turn around and come back.

There is being cautious and being scaremongering. I have worked for the beeb and sadly these games are not new.
 
ell said:
The fact we completely rubbished the AZ vaccine and wouldn't give it to most of our population probably doesn't help, the fact the other vaccines are 10x the cost too.
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Well we didn’t and I had two doses but large parts of the world did. AZ is the one for poorer countries as it doesn’t need special storage conditions and it is by far the cheapest but probably most countries that need it won’t want it.

A real shame.
 
Invisible Man's Bandage said:
No, that isn’t the case. Can’t link it as the app is playing up but it is an Oxford University study and they have direct quotes from Professor Sir John Bell, who led it. It’s just waiting to be peer reviewed.
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Gotcha. You're absolutely right, it's a clinical study rather than real world monitoring.

www.bloomberg.com

AstraZeneca Covid Booster Increases Antibodies Against Omicron

A third dose of AstraZeneca Plc’s Covid-19 vaccine significantly boosted neutralizing antibodies against omicron, according to lab studies at the University of Oxford.
www.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com
 
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