COVID Data Thread

blueparrot said:
Not sure I completely agree, a tap at 80% would still get us through it fast but stagger hospital admissions hopefully just enough to stop a flood. That may or may not have required the other nations slightly stricter restrictions we’ll see. As I have posted though it’s too late now for England to go down that road. The dice have rolled.
My uneducated guess is we’ll be on the way out of this by the end of the month and it will drop quite steeply through February.
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Looking at the GM numbers this looks like a fuse that is burning very fast but short lived.

IF that is what happens then getting it over in January ,makes sense.

And really if it was going to be slowed or stopped that time was when Scotland and Wales introduced more restrictions than England and it really does not seem to have made mch difference there.

This is so infectious and thankfully by looks of it much less dangerous that the rules very probably have all changed. There was a very narrow window to stop it. After that the quicker it happens the better might make sense.

Is it a gamble? Yes. But the reality is many would have got round restrictions rather than miss a second Christmas. I think that figured into the decision. Had there been a way to persuade the public it might have been tried. I think they had lost too many of the people to hope that scare tactcs would work this time.

It will be a squeeze that is for sure. But it coud prove the right decision. Not that it was really a decision in the end as it was just too late once we knew enough to mitigate by much at all.
 
kaz7 said:
The NHS is creaking , staff off sick is killing them for the sake of another herd immunity bollocks , should have acted two weeks ago, plan b hasnt worked , booster this booster that , vax this vax that is all he has
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There is no need for anymore restrictions.

Id love to know how many are sat at home with no symptoms because of isolation rules?
 
Regionally North West today scored the highest number EVER recorded by any one region across the entire pandemic.

29,360 - up from 24,183 yesterday & V 20,183 last Tuesday.

London peaked at 27,799 on 22 December.

London by comparison today was also up 1447 onto 21,527 - well below NW now and V 22, 981 last Tuesday.

So as you see in those 2 weeks it has fallen and then flattened and is not going down day by day at any obvious pace.

South East third on 18,532 - up from 17,195 V 16,236 last week

The other regions East & West Midlands, East and Yorkshire were all between 13 and 15 K.

But the usually small North East was on 10,252. And South West on 11,770.
 
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A further 218,724 coronavirus cases and 48 COVID-related deaths have been recorded in the UK, official figures show.

The UK-wide figures have been released after the Bank Holiday, when only England released figures for both deaths and cases

Sky
 
Why are all the media saying there are 14,126 in hospital in the UK?

There are more than that in England alone. 15,044 today.

For the number to be true there would have to be a minus number in the other nations.

They are just reading what Gov UK posts and as I said earlier when explaining how useless their hospital numbers are this one does not even add up.

It is pretty easy to add up the four numbers (which Gov UK actually do have right but have themselves just not bothered checking!)

There are 348 in Northern Ireland. Were 531 in Wales on New Years Eve (still the latest here) and 1147 in Scotland,

That is an extra 2026 atop 15,044 from England = 17,070 in UK hospitals.

Not a clue where the 14,126 in UK on Gov UK comes from. They say it is the latest available but their own numbers show it isn't and is a not insignificant number out.

And the journalists just copy it as it is obviously too hard to add up 4 numbers.

Just as I pointed out in my post here earlier THIS is why I never use the Gov UK hospital numbers. It is safer to add them up yourself.

But at a time when hospital numbers matter so much the media should be getting key numbers like these right. Not being given misleading ones.

They will probably correct it on Gov UK later but the media will not check again if they do. Its a niggle but it happens too often.
 
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This is only anecdotal of course but I was back in work today and I visited one of my customers in North Wales. They were saying that over the Christmas and New Year period (they worked every day except Christmas and New Year's Day) they had around 20% of the production workforce off. They had to submit proof of a positive PCR test so they weren't faking it and they had a few more at home awaiting results after positive LFTs.

This appears that the additional restrictions in Wales are now making little or no difference compared to England and unless some sort of draconian lockdown was imposed then we have to ride it out. As @Healdplace posted earlier, the vast majority of people probably wouldn't abide by any such restrictions anyway so they effectively would be as pointless as all current ones.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
No. The faster it burns the more damage done. Simple as that. More overload of health care and other services.
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As I said that might have helped before everywhere got to the point it is now. As in 3 weeks ago. But there is no way to really slow this down now it has spread everywhere, bar a full lockdown that will never be obeyed well enough to matter. Not even sure that would help much now given we are having millions catching it every week.

Tha kind of rate cannot be sustained for long. And how much really would a lockdown now stop cases from spreading beyond what they have over the past 2 weeks.

They could try piecemeal measures like banning crowds at football or closing theatres but they have to balance that against the harm that would do.

I would have supported a lockdown before Christmas. In fact I posted in here saying we should do and got hounded off the thread if you recall. About a month ago.

That told me how well it would work. As in not well.And that was then. When it could have worked to slow down to ptrotect the NHS. Its too late now imo. Or we would be doing it. We just are hoping it will burn fast and over quick.

Which is a gamble. But if he was not going to do it tonight he will not later.
 
Healdplace said:
As I said that might have helped before everywhere got to the point it is now. As in 3 weeks ago. But there is no way to really slow this down now it has spread everywhere, bar a full lockdown that will never be obeyed well enough to matter. Not even sure that would help much now given we are having millions catching it every week.

Tha kind of rate cannot be sustained for long. And how much really would a lockdown now stop cases from spreading beyond what they have over the past 2 weeks.

They could try piecemeal measures like banning crowds at football or closing theatres but they have to balance that against the harm that would do.

I would have supported a locdown bwfore Christmas. In fact I psted in here saying we should do and got hounded off the thread if you recall.

That told me how well it would work. As in not well.And that was then. When it could have worked. Its too late now imo. Or we would be doing it. We just are hoping it will burn fast and over quick.

Which is a gamble. If he was not going to do it tonight he will not later.
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I'm not arguing for more restrictions, just making the point that there is no argument for a deliberate fast burn.

You'll not that a deliberate fast burn is not govt policy either- just for instance testing all pupils on return to school and keeping isolation in place are specifically designed to reduce spread.
 
Invisible Man's Bandage said:
This is only anecdotal of course but I was back in work today and I visited one of my customers in North Wales. They were saying that over the Christmas and New Year period (they worked every day except Christmas and New Year's Day) they had around 20% of the production workforce off. They had to submit proof of a positive PCR test so they weren't faking it and they had a few more at home awaiting results after positive LFTs.

This appears that the additional restrictions in Wales are now making little or no difference compared to England and unless some sort of draconian lockdown was imposed then we have to ride it out. As @Healdplace posted earlier, the vast majority of people probably wouldn't abide by any such restrictions anyway so they effectively would be as pointless as all current ones.
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My friend has spent both Christmas and New Year with family in North Wales. Back today.

She is very vulnerable as I have mentioned often in my posts. I was really worried as she stayed with family and had lots of visits and trips out to places I assumed you culd not go in Wales over past two weeks Sje told me it was barely noticeable there were testrictions.

Whether it was because many were just ignoring them I do not know. But it has made no obvious difference to case rates.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
I'm not arguing for more restrictions, just making the point that there is no argument for a deliberate fast burn.

You'll not that a deliberate fast burn is not govt policy either- just for instance testing all pupils on return to school and keeping isolation in place are specifically designed to reduce spread.
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I doubt it was a plan as such just a consequece of circumstances. Not sure anyone could have stopped this tsunami but it would have taken a full on lockdown over Chrstmas and New Year to have some kind of shot enacted well before Christmas as spread took off the week before then.

Once that window was missed as they awaited more data and likely as it was deemed politically too hard to impose at that time when the govenment were under seige over things like partygate then the moment was gone.

But if it pays off you can bet it will be presented as the plan all along.
 
I have no idea what the next month will bring. It looks like it will be better than our worst fears. But it could yet go pear shaped as we are yet to see the consequence of things like care home outbreaks with Omicron. Or if the boosters wear off faster than hoped in the most vulnerable.

With each step the choices to be made have got harder because the people have become more and more frustrated with those in charge and the ability to carry them with you slips away too easily.

It will always end up being mostly fortune and science that lead to what happens and if it goes well you take the credit and if not you blame fortune and/or science or anyone else you can think of.

How politics works pretty much everywhere
 
THIS IS ONE MEDIA REPORT TONIGHT

Rather confused.


QUOTE

Mr Johnson will deliver a virtual Covid press conference from Downing Street at 5.00pm on Tuesday 4 January.

You will be able to watch the announcement via a live stream on this page. It will also be shown on TV on BBC News and Sky News....

Plan B measures are being reviewed this week, with the Education Secretary Nadhim Zahawi confirming that Cabinet will meet to discuss the restrictions on Wednesday 5 January.


Um

So the plan was to annouce no new restrictions the night before they all meet up to discuss the restrictions.

Why then not just do the press conference tomorrow after you have actually all discussed the matter first?
 
GREATER MANCHESTER CASES TODAY



TOTAL 12,078 - A new record high up 704 on the last one 3 days ago.

UP by 4346 from 7732 yesterday


NW Total 29,360- UP from yesterday by 5177


GM 41.1% of the NW total today. WAY up on past two numbers which were 31%.

Though that 41% is about par.


Week to week NW was up 9177 & Greater Manchester was up by 3416 which is 37.7% of that rise.


Yet another unparalleled set of numbers with figures breakimg records everywhere. THREE pop scores over 500 on one day is quite a shock. Had never seen one anywhere in the UK before this week!



MANCHESTER 1816 - UP 464 on day & UP 139 on week - Pop Score 327* to enter 24K club (POP 24,304) * Highest score but lowest Pop Score in GM today. If anyone thinks 327 is low! This is the most ever to be best of day.

SALFORD 1338 - UP 695 on day & UP 306 on week - Pop Score 509 to smash into the 25K club as first in GM (POP 25,379) Highest pop score in GM across the pandemic - leading TRAFFORD - but by a whopping 1014.

BOLTON 1284 - UP 237 on day & UP 631 on week - Pop Score 446 - POP 22,726) * Lowest Pop Score in GM across the pandemic - BUT lost more of its lead over Stockport today. And may well last just 2 days as only resident of the 22K club as 23K seems certain bar a big fall tomorrow.

STOCKPORT 1230 - UP 462 on day & UP 188 on week - Pop Score 419 (POP 23,586) - took another 27 back from Bolton to now be 860 behind for best Pop Score across the pandemic.

OLDHAM 1185 - UP 678 on day & UP 395 on week - Pop Score 499. Just missed being another over 500 but will be in 24K club tomorrow. (POP 23,809)

TAMESIDE 1169 - UP 683 on day & UP 551 on week. Pop Score 514 to shockingly enter the 24K club unexpectedly early (POP 24,119)

WIGAN 1165 - DOWN 123 on day & UP 302 on week - Pop Score 352 - also entering the 24 K club (POP 24,300))

BURY 1065 - UP 586 on day & UP 533 on week. Pop Score 558 * to be another in one day to enter the 24K club unexpectedly * the highest EVER Pop Score in GM on one day (POP 24,083)

ROCHDALE 975 - UP 463 on day & UP 387 on week. Pop Score 436 to make it FIVE into the 24 K club on just one day - most ever jumping ship in one day amd unlikely to ever be beaten - hopefully! (POP 24,198)

TRAFFORD 851 - UP 201 on day & DOWN 16 on week - Pop Score 358 (POP 24,365) Better day here - lowest score in GM but highest ever lowest score!
 
Anything we can do....

US is the first nation to record over ONE MILLION cases on one day - 1,080,211

Glad I am not working out THOSE numbers!

Wonder how many were in Evanston, Illinois where I (briefly) lived long ago.
 
Healdplace said:
Anything we can do....

US is the first nation to record over ONE MILLION cases on one day - 1,080,211

Glad I am not working out THOSE numbers!

Wonder how many were in Evanston, Illinois where I (briefly) lived long ago.
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Pretty similar to the UK cases based on population I'd say.
 
ZOE NUMBERS

On the Zoe data today there are a few more hints of a slow down.

Predicted cases is actually matching the reality quite well now.

They had 208,135 today - UP 1265 after a rise of 1635 yesterday and 2890 the day before.

Seems to be slowing toward a plateau.



They have 2,527,867 ongoing infections as of today. That is up on yesterday by 58,713

The rise the day before was 63,810

Another hint of falling.


In the regions

NORTH WEST increases its lead in top it took over yesterday ON 4063/4527 - UP from 3975/4445 - which is a smaller rise than yesterday - or indeed any of the previous two week of rises

LONDON still second but falls again ON 3746/4085 from 3978/4334 - with the daily falls being about 200/300 every day for a week.

Most of the southern regions are falling. Indeed SOUTH WEST is now the lowest in the UK below Scotland on 2002/3187 V Scotland's 2039/2432

YORKSHIRE is up the most today into 4th on 3179/3653


In the North West

Liverpool is rocketing up on 45,256 and St Helens even more so on 50,270 - highest in the region (over 50K is VERY rare). But only just - see GM below. Wirral has climbed back into the 30s on 33,058

Both the Cheshires are up to just under 30K


In Greater Manchester the order is (all going up):-

OLDHAM 29,348 - like everyone rising but the only one JUST under 30K. First time ever that 9 out of 10 in GM have been over 30K on Zoe

TRAFFORD 30,264

BURY 31,057

ROCHDALE 32,386

BOLTON 36,456

STOCKPORT 36,745

WIGAN 37,940

TAMESIDE 44,304

MANCHESTER 44,844

SALFORD 50,146 - Only just second behind St Helens as highest in the North West region.
 
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