Coronavirus (2022) thread

  • Thread starter Thread starter Ric
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My fears earlier about care home outbreaks booming over Christmas as hinted by the Northern Ireland numbers have been confirmed.

Today's latest data in Scotland reveals that in the last week up to early January no fewer than 10% of all Covid cases recorded by care home staff and 5% of the total for all patients across the entire pandemic - have been recorded.

Why are the media not all over this?

Imagine the numbers in England.

This was obvious given that families would visit over Christmas and staff would be getting Omicron. Its why I have been looking. This is why the numbers in the most vunerable ages are rising in hospital and why we are now at a point where icus could be overwhelmed and deaths rocket - even if Omicron is still less serious in the most vulnerable. Which we are about to find out fingers crossed.

At the very least this needs to be being talked about out there.

HERE IS THAT REPORT TODAY IN THE SCOTLAND DATA SMALL PRINT WHICH MOST JOURNALISTS LIKELY DO NOT READ
  • as at 5 January 2022, 251 (24%) adult care homes had a current case of suspected COVID-19
  • in the week 27 December 2021 to 2 January 2022 there were 612 new confirmed positive COVID‑19 cases among care home residents and 1,098 among care home staff
  • as of 2 January 2022, there have been 13,017 confirmed cases of COVID-19 amongst residents and 10,168 amongst staff of care homes for all ages since 9 March 2020

​

 
Last edited:
Bluewonder said:
Sorry, this is the number for Covid, I'd just typed the wrong thing.
Click to expand...

Yeah the data is "with covid" not "of covid" there's only one data set that will give you an estimate of the number of covid wards and that's the ventilation of covid patients
 
Erm

news.sky.com

COVID-19: Top GP demands three things PM must do to relieve Omicron pressure on NHS

Dr Chaand Nagpaul told Sky News "we have never known this level of staff absence before" amid the continuing spread of the Omicron variant of COVID-19.
news.sky.com news.sky.com

Speaking during a visit to a vaccination centre on Thursday, Boris Johnson acknowledged the NHS was under "huge pressure" at the moment, but said it is "not true" that the health service does not have enough staff to cope with the pressures it is facing.
 
kaz7 said:
Erm

news.sky.com

COVID-19: Top GP demands three things PM must do to relieve Omicron pressure on NHS

Dr Chaand Nagpaul told Sky News "we have never known this level of staff absence before" amid the continuing spread of the Omicron variant of COVID-19.
news.sky.com news.sky.com

Speaking during a visit to a vaccination centre on Thursday, Boris Johnson acknowledged the NHS was under "huge pressure" at the moment, but said it is "not true" that the health service does not have enough staff to cope with the pressures it is facing.
Click to expand...
That information might have been in a group chat on a phone that is no longer available. You’d be surprised how often that happens…
 
BerkshireBlue said:
Yeah the data is "with covid" not "of covid" there's only one data set that will give you an estimate of the number of covid wards and that's the ventilation of covid patients
Click to expand...

Surely with a variant which is less severe, that would give a large underestimate of covid impact.

Most patients admitted for covid throughout the pandemic have not been ventilated, and the proportion is dropping with omicron.
 
Summerbuzz said:
They actually posited something very similair to this a few years before COVID 19. The idea was to send something dominant but inert out to circulate in wildlife, thereby protecting humans from dangerous variants making the leap.
Click to expand...

This is the plot for any number of disaster movies.
 
My partner's mum tested positive yesterday. Got Parkinson's and dementia (recently diagnosed) been in hospital for 4 weeks after falling out of bed. 10 days ago my partner and her dad were stopped from visiting as another patient on ward tested positive. I did say at time be surprised if doesn't go round ward now. We'd already been told never be home again and would be going into a nursing home.
 
ob said:
My partner's mum tested positive yesterday. Got Parkinson's and dementia (recently diagnosed) been in hospital for 4 weeks after falling out of bed. 10 days ago my partner and her dad were stopped from visiting as another patient on ward tested positive. I did say at time be surprised if doesn't go round ward now. We'd already been told never be home again and would be going into a nursing home.
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Sorry to hear that ob, must be a difficult time for all of you.
 
The Northern Ireland data from pre Omicron just beore Christmas to today show that the numbers of over 60s testing positive have doubled. From under 5% to 9%. With the over 80s having tripled.

These remain well below the levels last January pre vaccines really getting underway for all. Less than half.

But it shows why we are at a critical point where Omicron's reduced severity will be tested against the most vulnerable in ways it has been much less so amongst fit and younger people almost entirely catching it in past weeks.

Hopefully the pattern will not change much. But it would be naive to expect it not to change at all.
 
andyhinch said:
Sorry to hear that ob, must be a difficult time for all of you.
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Cheers mate, round with her dad at weekend. He is 86 and last 4 weeks first time ever on his own in his life. Lived with his mum and dad until he got married just over 40 years ago. Been tough few months. We have helped them sell their house (family home of 40 years), buy a retirement flat with onsite warden. Then she fell and taken into hospital and told us never be home again. Partner n myself spent last few weeks looking round local care homes then covid broke on ward so couldn't visit her and we knew she wouldn't move for while now she's tested positive. My girlfriend has filled in forms for power of attorney for both mother and father but not gone through yet. I kind of feel hopeless as my partner doing everything on her own (brother in States and sister in Australia)
 
Healdplace said:
This was obvious given that families would visit over Christmas and staff would be getting Omicron. Its why I have been looking. This is why the numbers in the most vunerable ages are rising in hospital and why we are now at a point where icus could be overwhelmed and deaths rocket - even if Omicron is still less serious in the most vulnerable. Which we are about to find out fingers crossed.
Click to expand...
Elderly residents at my daughters place have barely had a sniffle with it. All triple jabbed. She said if it wasn't for regular testing they'd never have known they'd had it. Hopefully it's playing out across the nation, in similar fashion.
 
ob said:
Cheers mate, round with her dad at weekend. He is 86 and last 4 weeks first time ever on his own in his life. Lived with his mum and dad until he got married just over 40 years ago. Been tough few months. We have helped them sell their house (family home of 40 years), buy a retirement flat with onsite warden. Then she fell and taken into hospital and told us never be home again. Partner n myself spent last few weeks looking round local care homes then covid broke on ward so couldn't visit her and we knew she wouldn't move for while now she's tested positive. My girlfriend has filled in forms for power of attorney for both mother and father but not gone through yet. I kind of feel hopeless as my partner doing everything on her own (brother in States and sister in Australia)
Click to expand...
You’ve done the right thing with the power of attorney, I’ve been through it, stay strong, hope it all works out for you.
 
Gaylord du Bois said:
Elderly residents at my daughters place have barely had a sniffle with it. All triple jabbed. She said if it wasn't for regular testing they'd never have known they'd had it. Hopefully it's playing out across the nation, in similar fashion.
Click to expand...
Hopefully yes. But coupled with the notable rise in deaths in England hospitals in the past week and the unknown numbers as they rarely get reported in care homes here but given both Scotland and Northern Ireland we can safely predict there will be a lot of cases there too. And if even only a few extra enter ITUs and or ventilators it will be a problem in the NHS regions feeling strain with so many staff off isolating.

I am optimistic too over this based on what we know so far but these are going to be the key things to watch for in coming days and I am surprised the media are not even noticing these big care home rises given that they are going to determine where we go in coming weeks one way or the other. Should be a story they are following is all I am saying.
 
kaz7 said:
Whitty says the majority of admission are because of covid with a very high number not vaccinated

Last briefing
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Of the 13,045 people in English hospitals with Covid on 4th Jan, 8,200 of them were primarily being treated for Covid. That's 63%.

www.england.nhs.uk

Statistics » COVID-19 Hospital Activity

Statistics » COVID-19 Hospital Activity
www.england.nhs.uk www.england.nhs.uk

I don't know how many of them have been vaccinated though if you have a link to those statistics I'm sure it would be interesting to find out.
 
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